China is the largest trade partner of :
1. Russia
2. India
3. ASEAN
4. Brazil
5. Saudi Arabia
6. Kazakhstan
7. Australia
Beyond North America, Europe, and Africa, China is in the lead in terms of trade with the major nations in the other regions of the world.
In Africa too, China is making swift progress in becoming the largest trade partner of South Africa, which would limit the US trade dominance to North America and Europe.
North America and the EU taken together represent 45.4% of the world's GDP and a declining share over time.
Meanwhile the share of the rest of the world is continually rising and ever increasing in its trade with China.
China is the largest trade partner of the world today. Which pretty much guarantees that it will continue to grow its economy no matter what else happens in the world tomorrow. Population loss will not be enough to stop China from growing in GDP faster than the US.
China is the new future leader of the global world order, there is no way around it.
It has a higher population than the US.
It has a higher total trade with the world than the US.
It has more connections with fresh blood than the US.
It's people are more united than the US.
China is only 6-16 years behind other developed nation states in terms of cutting edge technology.
China has defeated the US as the US is only focused on sustaining itself meanwhile China is focused on maximum possible growth at all times.
In conclusion, the west is limited to North America and Europe. They will never expand beyond these two territories. They do not have a large enough population to run the world or compete against East Asians in the long run.
The East Asians sacrificed everything and won.
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Notice that these are just countries that export a lot of raw materials to China:
Russia - oil, metals
Brazil - everything
Saudi - oil
Kazakhstan - gas?
Australia - iron ore
So I would say that's more an indication of China's vulnerability. If these countries stop selling to them their economy will come crashing down.
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Why would these countries stop selling to them?
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If the Chinese go batshit insane and start a world war. Or if America decides to blockade them. The Houthis can choke off a large part of the world's shipping using stuff they made in their garage. Imagine what America or Japan could do.
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So your counter to China's rise is it won't happen if they start WW3.
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Yeah that's not so far fetched when the Chinese themselves say they're gonna invade Taiwan in a few years. Chinas got a lot of enemies.
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China is intertwined enough into the global economy that if China collapsed so would the US.
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It would be bad but collapse? I don't think so. They need us more than we need cheap potty seats and lead painted pacifiers.
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Stopped reading here
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Yeah that's the last sentence. You feelin okay?
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Your IF is doing some heavy lifting LOL
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They could go totally nuts in the future. Wouldn't be the first time a country did something really stupid and self-destructive.
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It's not about willingness on the part of the countries, but disaster can strike in the future for anyone - COVID was completely unforseen for many countries, and supply chains can be disrupted to the point of a country being felled.
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That applies to every single developed economy out there.
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