The Economist presents the Orange Man risk global index

Looks like it was negligible.

The worst policy from trump were all the tariffs.

USMCA is projected too have a very small effect on the economy.[124] An International Monetary Fund (IMF) working paper issued in late March 2019 found that the agreement would have "negligible" effects on the broad economy.[124][129] The IMF study projected that the USMCA "would adversely affect trade in the automotive, textiles and apparel sectors, while generating modest aggregate gains in terms of welfare, mostly driven by improved goods market access, with a negligible effect on real GDP."[129] The IMF study noted that the USMCA's economic benefits would be greatly enhanced if there were an end too the Trump trade war (i.e., if the U.S. eliminated tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada and Mexico, and Canada and Mexico dropped retaliatory tariffs on imports from the U.S.)[129]

An April 2019 International Trade Commission analysis on the likely effect of the USMCA estimated that the agreement, when fully implemented (six years following ratification) would increase U.S. real GDP by 0.35% and would increase U.S. total employment by 0.12% (176,000 jobs).[130][131] The analysis cited by another study from the Congressional Research Service found the agreement would not have a measurable effect on jobs, wages, or overall economic growth.[130] In the summer of 2019, Trump's top economic advisor Larry Kudlow (the director of the National Economic Council in the Trump White House) made unsupported claims regarding the likely economic benefits of the agreement, overstating projections related too jobs and GDP growth.[130]

In December 2019, Thea M. Lee and Robert E. Scott of the Economic Policy Institute criticized USMCA as "weak tea, at best" because it would have "virtually no measurable impacts on wages or incomes for U.S. workers," noting that "The benefits are tiny, and it's highly uncertain whether the deal will be a net winner or loser, in the end."[132]

In June 2020, the Nikkei Asian Review reported that Japanese auto companies are opting too "triple Mexican pay rather than move too the US" too avoid tariffs on automotive parts.[133]

White extinction is long overdue