https://apnews.com/article/israel-lebanon-gaza-palestinians-hezbollah-52056075daebc9aac6675043f64439ab
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Netanyahu is soooooooooooo desperate to prevent peace. Assassinate a guy hoping the enemy will retaliate, and when they don't just say they're thinking about it and attack anyway.
South Beirut, everything south of Sidon, the entire Bekaa Valley. Half the country where a million people live, half of whom are Christian and Sunni.
I'm not seeing much in Lebanese media yet except in L'Orient le Jour. (Being a francophile pays off for me once again.
) Hezbollah claims they've fired 320 rockets. That's only a small fraction of the stockpile they're claimed to have, but they can't just shoot it all at once. It'll be interesting to see if they try to fire enough at one time to saturate the Iron Dome or if they just keep shooting day after day until the Israelis run out of missiles.
The problem with a
preemptive strike 
is it brings up the "use it or lose it" problem that was so important in Cold War nuclear strategy. Once your enemy starts blowing up your missiles on the ground, it gives you a huge incentive to fire them before they're destroyed, even if you wanted to be more restrained.
The one thing I can confidently predict here is that a lot of innocent people are gonna die.
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They fired 200+ missiles and drones already, that's not a normal hezzie night
What happened (allegedly) is the US worked hard on a deal with Iran to make them not spaz out to save face, using some ceasefire deal with Palestine. Israel already withdrew troops from part of the south for the deal today. But Iran probably can act like Hezbollah are their own thing who will need to also save face for the other leader killed. So it will probably be a token but largish thing.
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Yeah, but it seems like a strange number. It's way more than usual, but most are going to miss and the Iron Dome is smart enough to not shoot at those, so I don't think this is enough to overwhelm it.
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I updated my comment a bit. They are claiming they already hit some IDF bases already (who knows) that might be all this is. Token stuff to save face. The timing with IDF withdrawing troops is probably not a coincidence. Lebanon ppl were waiting for diplomacy to finish to do their act.
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The impression I got (take this with a huge grain of salt because guessing what's going on in negotiations is a fool's errand) is that they were actually really close to a deal a few weeks ago. That's when Netanyahu suddenly assassinates the Hezbo and the guy in Tehran and moves the goal posts making the demand about the Philadelphi corridor. And killing the Hamas guy especially is a sign that he's not acting in good faith
because that's who he was negotiating with in Qatar.
I am just a little bit biased from watching Netanyahu frick up every chance for peace in the region for the last 25 years, but that would be very in character for him. I don't think freeing the hostages is a low priority for him. I think he doesn't want it to happen. I'm not saying that because I hate all Israelis or something, but because this guy is such an butthole.
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lol , jews can do whatever they want, no amount of impotent seethe from disabled rejects will stop them
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