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Wall Street Journal article

Reddit seethe

:#marseychingchongsupremacy:

CHINA NUMBA 1

:#marseymaoist:

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It's still early but it's picking up steam on reddit.

:marseysnoo:

https://old.reddit.com/r/nyc/comments/xy16a4/mayor_adams_declares_state_of_emergency_over_nyc/

https://old.reddit.com/r/news/comments/xy2eql/nyc_mayor_eric_adams_declares_state_of_emergency/

https://old.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/xy2vsi/nyc_mayor_eric_adams_declares_state_of_emergency/

https://old.reddit.com/r/Conservative/comments/xy14y5/nyc_mayor_adams_declares_state_of_emergency_after/

:marseybluecheck:

https://x.com/search?q=adams+emergency

Abbot gloating https://x.com/GregAbbott_TX/status/1578422776159166464

Sanctuary cities like New York City experience a FRACTION of what Texas border communities face every day.

We'll continue busing migrants to NYC, DC, & Chicago to relieve our overwhelmed border towns until Biden does his job to secure the border.


Mayor Adams declared a state of emergency Friday over the city’s migrant crisis and pleaded for financial and legislative assistance from the federal government and state lawmakers.

The emergency declaration will suspend certain land use requirements in order for the city to more rapidly construct tent camps to house migrants, such as the controversial facility set to be constructed on Randalls Island, Adams said in a speech from City Hall.

But the declaration only goes so far, Adams said. With more than 17,000 South and Central American migrants currently in the city, the homeless shelter system is nearly at 100% capacity and social services are being strained to the brink of collapse, he said.

“It is burning through our budget,” he said, predicting that the city will spend more than $1 billion on the crisis in this fiscal year alone.

“It is not sustainable, and it is not right,” he added.

As a result, Adams demanded that President Biden’s administration and state lawmakers in Albany do what they can to help, including allocating emergency funding and passing legislation that would expedite work permits for the migrants.

“This is an all-hands-on-deck moment,” he said.

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Chicago Marathon's quiet nonbinary division addition 'feels hurtful,' runner says

Chicago Marathon's quiet nonbinary division addition 'feels hurtful,' runner says

https://www.foxnews.com/sports/chicago-marathons-quiet-nonbinary-division-addition-feels-hurtful-runner-says

:#marseydance::#marseydance::#marseydance:

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Unless you're a Pure (Dairy) Queen that is 🐄

As with most shots, they haven't been tested alongside other shots

"In addition, the potential interference of COVID-19 vaccine mRNA with the immune response to multiple routine vaccines given to infants during the first 6 months of age needs to be considered."

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:#marseyclappingglasses:

A transgender politician in Mexico’s ruling MORENA party is under fire for posting pornographic videos of herself on Twitter.

But María Clemente García Moreno—a federal deputy in Mexico City who made history in 2021 when she and another politician became the first trans people elected to the country’s congress—also moonlights as a s*x worker and contests that it's within her rights to post whatever she wants.

“I have human rights, I have the right to the free development of my personality, I have the right to the free self-determination of my body,” García Moreno told VICE World News. “The constitution, human rights and the federal labor law in Mexico support me in exercising my rights, in the performance of s*x work in any form, which can be the creation of pornographic content for digital platforms.”

Twitter is one of the only widely used social media sources that allows users to post sexually explicit videos, and has become a popular platform via which s*x workers advertise their services and post content. And García Moreno said that she posted the videos for the same reasons as other s*x workers use Twitter: “To get more clients.”

The videos, posted over a three-day period beginning on September 30, started with one of a man’s erect peepee, which she captioned in Spanish: “This is the first that I'm going to show you how I suck it like the popsicle that my dad bought me when I was a girl and took me to the park.”

The following day, she posted a graphic video of her performing oral s*x on a man, writing, “This papacito came by very tired from work and I gave him a few sucks and a massage so that he could arrive at his home relaxed. Uff” with the hashtag #TransIsHot.

The final video, posted on October 2 and now pinned to the top of her Twitter page, is again of a blowjob, writing “I love that this papacito stops by to see me after leaving work to relax with me. A true male worker, I love to pamper him, and give him massages after I attend to him so that he can take a nap and rest after work. #TransIsHot #Maria #Mexico.”

The posts received near instantaneous backlash from conservative politicians along with numerous transphobic insults from civilians and anonymous accounts. A representative from MORENA also said that their ethics commission will be investigating the videos before the party decides if there will be any sort of punishment for the posts.

América Rangel, a Mexico City deputy from the conservative PAN party who has repeatedly posted transphobic comments online, tweeted “Gender ideologues are quick to say that it is transphobic to criticize [García Moreno] for uploading a porn video. But no, the criticism is for not having even the slightest respect for society and the position. It is a major insult that must have repercussions.”

García Moreno tweeted a response, saying, “This lady is frustrated because I accept my skin color, not like her who thinks she’s white, frustrated because I have jurisdiction and she doesn’t, she’s frustrated because I have s*x and she doesn’t, she’s frustrated because my [MORENA Party] is more badass than hers. Poor crazy lady.”

She also retweeted a number of supporters. One from the LGBTQ community wrote “To [García Moreno], I am going to question your legislative work. Your performance as a federal deputy. Your commitment to the causes. The standard will NEVER be: What do you remove or put in your Twitter. People frick. (And that’s good.) Free development of the personality is what it’s called.”

The day after the third video was posted, García Moreno released her first yearly report about her legislative activities in congress, tweeting each page individually. With many of the images outlining what she’s accomplished over the year, García Moreno wrote, “My body is mine, mine alone, I have the right, like every human being, to the free development of the personality and the free self-determination of my body. My body is mine, only mine, not my husband's, not my boyfriend's, not the church's, not the State's.” With another image, she tweeted, “Women have the right to pleasure.”

García Moreno told VICE News that she intends to present new legislation for s*x workers in Mexico that will give them the same “social security and rights” as workers in other industries. She said that it is particularly necessary in Mexico City, where she is an elected representative, because she alleged that many s*x workers are exploited and extorted by local police.

García Moreno thinks that her s*x-positive attitude is an important step to toward “putting [s*x work] in the national public narrative of Mexico, and elsewhere outside of Mexico at the international level.” She hoped that it could have an effect particularly on other countries in Latin America where Mexico is a regional leader.

While she said that she was “saddened” by the negative response from the country’s conservative population and politicians, she added: “The truth is that I transcended hate speech since high school, not since the latest beatings that I received for my gender identity.”

Instead, García Moreno believes she’s “calling attention” to the issue of s*x worker rights and transphobia in the public domain. And the support she’s been receiving from the LGTBQ community, s*x workers, and allies are proving her point.

“It gives me great pleasure to see that the people, society, ordinary citizens are living with courage, sexual freedom, and that they are willing to defend the sexual and reproductive rights of other people, in this case mine, their representative,” said García Moreno.

“The Mexican youth want the right to sexual freedom, they want sexual and reproductive rights, they want to have the right to the self-determination of their bodies.”

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They really want the olds gone to repeal social security and Medicaid.

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orange site: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33118475

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I've Lived As A Man And A Woman — And Our Worlds Are Very Different

It’s been a topic that has been on my mind for so long, but I have yet to find a way to vocalize my experiences.

As a woman, it was always acceptable for me to walk up to a mother/father and ask them how old their child was, and I could even get away with engaging with the child.

Countless times, I’m so caught up walking alone in a parking lot that I’m not aware of the other women (because women are socialized to believe other women aren’t a threat).

Unfortunately, I’ve learned, that as an unknown man, there really is nothing I can do in a similar situation to make a woman feel safe.

Either, the trans man realizes that privilege is nice (whether consciously or not) and takes their privilege to heart, going so far as to diss women or hate them — becoming misogynists.

Reprinted with permission from the author.

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![](/images/16650988938951116.webp)

Pictured: Average Californian on their way to buy a kale smoothie (2023)

![](/images/16650988943905408.webp)

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  • Swedish Security Service says 'gross sabotage' indicated

  • Investigation shows detonations at Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines

  • Russia says not asked to participate in investigation

HELSINKI/STOCKHOLM, Oct 6 (Reuters) - A crime scene investigation of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines from Russia to Europe found evidence of detonations, strengthening suspicions of "gross sabotage", Sweden's Security Service said on Thursday.

Swedish and Danish authorities have been investigating four leaks after the pipelines, which link Russia and Germany via the Baltic Sea and have become a flashpoint in the Ukraine crisis, were damaged at the start of last week.

Europe, which used to rely on Russia for about 40% of its gas, is facing an energy crisis in the aftermath of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine which has cut off supplies of the fuel in a continuing stand-off.

It is investigating what caused the leaks as Moscow seeks to pin the blame on the West, suggesting the United States stood to gain. Washington has denied any involvement.

"After completing the crime scene investigation, the Swedish Security Service can conclude that there have been detonations at Nord Stream 1 and 2 in the Swedish economic zone," it said.

:marseylongpost::marseylongpost::marseylongpost::marseylongpost2::marseylongpost2::marseylongpost2::marseylongpost::marseylongpost::marseylongpost::marseylongpost2::marseylongpost2::marseylongpost2:

The security service added that there was extensive damage to the gas pipelines and it had retrieved some material from the site that would now be analysed. The evidence "has strengthened the suspicions of gross sabotage", it added.

The crime scene investigation conducted by the Swedish Coast Guard and Navy would have involved unmanned vehicles, Swedish navy spokesperson Jimmie Adamsson said.

"The pipes are at a depth of 70-80 metres and at those depths you use unmanned underwater vehicles," he added.

Russia said it had been informed via diplomatic channels that it was not able to join the investigation.

"As of now, there are no plans to ask the Russian side to join investigations," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, adding that Moscow replied it was not possible to conduct an objective investigation without its participation.

The operators of the pipelines owned by Russia and European partners said this week they were unable to inspect the damaged sections because Danish and Swedish authorities had cordoned off the area on Monday.

Sweden's Prosecution Authority said on Thursday the area, where gas spewed into the sea for almost a week, was no longer cordoned off.

It was not possible to let others take part in a Swedish criminal investigation, Sweden's justice minister said on Wednesday in response to the Kremlin.

Denmark's Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod told Reuters on Thursday that a police-led taskforce between Denmark, Sweden and Germany was in charge.

Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Russian foreign ministry, said on Thursday that Moscow would insist on a "comprehensive and open investigation" that includes Russian officials and Gazprom (GAZP.MM).

"Not to allow the owner (of the pipelines) to witness the investigation means there is something to hide," Zakharova said.

The Swedish government has received no application from Gazprom or Nord Stream to investigate the damage themselves, an enterprise minister spokesperson said.

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Federal agents who have been conducting a long-running probe of the president's son Hunter Biden believe they have 'sufficient evidence' to charge him with tax fraud and making a false statement on a gun permit, according to a bombshell report in the Washington Post.

Federal prosecutors have made no decision on charging Hunter Biden with a crime, and his lawyer blasted what he called a DOJ 'leak,' demanding an investigation of anyone who put out the information.

Hunter paid an outstanding tax liability back in 2020 and acknowledged a probe into what he called his 'tax affairs.'

The investigation was sparked by his business dealings with foreign countries while father Joe was vice president, and the charges could include failure to pay income tax, money laundering and failure to meet reporting requirements of U.S. tax laws.

The case is being overseen by a U.S. attorney in Delaware. Biden and AG Merrick Garland have repeatedly said they would leave the case to career prosecutors. The paper cited anonymous people familiar with the case.

The gun purchase matter relates to standard paperwork for purchasing a weapon. On the form Hunter denied using unlawful drugs or being addicted to drugs.

He has disclosed in his own memoir that he was addicted to crack cocaine and has struggled with drug and alcohol use.

Images found on his infamous laptop, which emerged weeks before Election Day 2020 and which experts who analyzed data have told DailyMail.com is authentic, contain images appearing to show crack cocaine use.

Emails traced to the laptop also point to an array of business activities in China and other locations. He also secured a lucrative board position with a Ukrainian energy firm, and did business in Kazakhstan and other far-flung locales.

The gun matter is of the type that prosecutors sometimes charge and sometimes overlook. But according to DOJ figures cited by the Post, there were 478 referrals for lying on firearms forms the year of Hunter Biden's purchase, with charges filed in 298 cases.

The crime carries a fine $250,000 fine and up to 10 years in prison.

White House chief of staff Ron Klain vouched for the president's son in a TV interview in April.

'Of course the president's confident that his son didn't break the law,' Klain said.

'But most importantly, as I said, that's a matter that's to be decided by the Justice Department, by the legal process. It's something that no one at the White House has involvement in.'

Hunter's lawyer, Chris Clark, teed off on 'leakers' in his own response to the story.

'It is a federal felony for a federal agent to leak information about a Grand Jury investigation such as this one,' he said in a statement to the Post. 'Any agent you cite as a source in your article apparently has committed such a felony. We expect the Department of Justice will diligently investigate and prosecute such bad actors. '

'As is proper and legally required, we believe the prosecutors in this case are diligently and thoroughly weighing not just evidence provided by agents, but also all the other witnesses in this case, including witnesses for the defense. That is the job of the prosecutors. They should not be pressured, rushed, or criticized for doing their job.'

Hunter's business practices have come under increased scrutiny as media organizations continue to probe the contents of material derived from Hunter's laptop.

He and Biden's brother James were reportedly paid an estimated $5million by Chinese energy giant CEFC.

Klain also told ABC's George Stephanopoulos: '

'I want to just be really clear, these are actions by Hunter and his brother. They're private matters. They don't involve the president. And they certainly are something that no one at the White House is involved in.'

The trove of emails uncovered on Hunter's laptop, which a Wilmington repair shop owner says someone resembling Hunter dropped off at his repair shop and never picked up, include emails making reference to an apparently dysfunctional tax situation.

'You need to get 2017 filed so we can try to work out a payment schedule,' his accountant Bill Morgan wrote him, in messages CNN said it authenticated.

At the time, the IRS was still pinging him to make due on his 2015 return.

'They want $158,000,' Morgan wrote. 'IRS has notified the State Department and they will not renew your passport until this is resolved.'

The gun matter had its origins in a 2018 incident where Beau Biden's widow, Hallie Biden, who was having an affair with Hunter, took Hunter's gun and threw it in a trash bin.

Amid a search for the weapon, Secret Service agents approached a gun store owner seeking paperwork on the purchase, Politico reported last year. The gun shop owner subsequently turned the paperwork over to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives.

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An American tourist has been arrested for smashing up two ancient Roman sculptures after being told he couldn’t see Pope Francis at the Vatican.

The man, who hasn’t been named but is in his 50s, went on a rampage when he was visiting the Vatican Museums around noon Wednesday.

After being informed he couldn’t meet the pope, the man allegedly hurled himself into one of the ancient busts in the museums’ Chiaramonti hall — knocking the sculpture off its pedestal, local newspaper Il Messaggero reported.

As he tried to flee from museum security, the American knocked another bust to the floor.

Staff managed to restrain the man until Vatican police arrived minutes later to arrest him.

Photos posted on social media by shocked onlookers showed the two broken busts lying on the marble floor.

“The busts were affixed to shelves with a nail but if you pull them down with force, they will come off,” Matteo Alessandrini, a spokesman for the Vatican Museums, told CNN.

The two busts were damaged but not severely, he added.

“One lost part of a nose and an ear, the head of the other came off the pedestal,” Alessandrini said.

The shattered pieces have already been taken to the restoration lab in the museums for repair.

The Chiaramonte hall is home to about 100 ancient Roman busts and statues.

The American man’s outburst is the latest in a string of incidents this summer that has seen tourists damaging monuments around Rome.

A pair of American tourists were fined after one of them was caught on video hurling an electric scooter down Rome’s Spanish Steps — causing more than $26,000 worth of damage to the world-famous site in June.

Meanwhile, a Canadian tourist was caught carving her name into the Colosseum in July.

Attacks on artworks in the Vatican also aren’t new.

The most notorious assault was back in 1972 when a Hungarian man jumped over a side altar in St. Peter’s Basilica and attacked Michelangelo’s Pieta with a sledgehammer.

He knocked off the Madonna’s left arm and chipped her nose and veil. That Renaissance masterpiece is now kept behind bulletproof glass.

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Preemptive strikes are needed so that they know what awaits them if they use nuclear weapons. – Zelensky

Nuclear bros, we are cooking

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:marseysnoo:

https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/xx3pho/putins_reliance_on_mercenaries_backfires_after/


Putin's reliance on mercenaries 'backfires' after one of them guns down Russian lieutenant colonel: report

On Wednesday, The Daily Beast reported that Vladimir Putin's effort to mobilize mercenaries for his war effort in Ukraine is descending into disaster, with one of them killing a Russian lieutenant colonel in an incident the Kremlin is trying to cover up.

Per the report, the incident — which took place in an unknown area — was highlighted by two Russian Telegram channels.

And it is just the latest in a series of violent incidents within the ranks.

The fight reportedly erupted after some of the contract soldiers demanded the newly arrived draftees hand over their mobile phones and gear.

It also comes as the Russian military faces dire shortages of supplies that render them unable to give even the most basic of necessities to currently deployed and newly drafted soldiers.

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JK Rowling challenges transgender presenter to sue her in LGBT Twitter spat

JK Rowling breaks silence on Harry Potter reunion

Emma Watson, who played Hermione Granger in the hit films, was one of the celebrities to back the charity.

JK Rowling challenged the presenter to sue her Mermaids trustee Dr Jacob Breslow spoke at an academic conference in Baltimore in 2011, which appeared to criticise societal understanding of paedophiles.

Ms Rowling responded to the presenter challenging her to start a petition, claiming she would be the first one to sign it.

Emma Watson is one celebrity that has previously vocalised her support for the charity

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Typical TERF Island.

:marseysnoo:

https://old.reddit.com/r/transgenderUK/comments/xx38ya/hate_crimes_reach_record_high_as_offences_against/


Hate crimes reach record high as offences against transgender people double

“The rise seen in the latest year may have been affected by the lower levels of crime recorded in the year ending March 2021 due to the Covid-19 pandemic restrictions,” the Home Office said.

Chief executive Jabeer Butt OBE added: “The government's Hate Crime Action Plan appears to have fallen off the face of the earth, but we need them to wake up and renew the commitment to take action now, as well as recognise the very real damage that harmful narratives can cause to Black, Asian and minority ethnic families and individuals.”

It does not reflect the values of modern Britain.

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:marseysnoo:

https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/xwq1h3/at_least_10_killed_including_mayor_in_mass/

https://old.reddit.com/r/mexico/comments/xwqor5/esto_no_lo_he_visto_en_las_noticias_locales/

:marseybluecheck:

https://x.com/BNONews/status/1577803487001432065#m


Mexican mayor among 20 dead in mass shooting

Gunmen linked to organized crime have opened fire at city hall and a nearby home in San Miguel Totolapan in southwest Mexico, killing at least 20 people and injuring several others, local officials say.

Advertisment Police then responded to a nearby house, where many people were found dead from apparent gunshot wounds.

Another official confirmed that, in total, at least 20 people were killed.

The PRD political party, to which Conrado Mendoza belonged, confirmed the mayor’s death in a statement shortly after the attack.

The massacre is the third attack which shocked Mexico in recent weeks.

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North Korea flies warplanes near South Korea, trading demonstrations of power

North Korea's military flew a dozen warplanes near its border with South Korea, which prompted it to scramble 30 military planes in response on Thursday.

This military dust-up comes as tension on the Korean Peninsula has increased in recent weeks as North Korea has continued to increase the frequency of its launch missile tests.

KIM JONG UN'S NORTH KOREA FIRES TWO BALLISTIC MISSILES ONE DAY BEFORE KAMALA HARRIS'S DMZ VISIT

Prior to the fracas in the air, North Korea launched two short-range ballistic missiles toward its eastern waters, and these were in response to the United States's military movements after it launched a nuclear-capable missile over Japan earlier this week.

Following Thursday’s launches by North Korea, the U.S., South Korea, and Japan performed a missile defense exercise in the Sea of Japan.

“This exercise enhances the interoperability of our collective forces and demonstrates the strength of the trilateral relationship with our Japan and Republic of Korea (ROK) allies, which is forward-leaning, reflective of our shared values, and resolute against those who challenge regional stability,” the U.S. Pacific Command statement said.

It has aggressively launched missile tests this year, with more than 40 ballistic and cruise missile tests, leading to increased tension in the region.

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:marseysnoo:

https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/xx21i5/putins_dueling_foot_soldiers_are_now_apparently/

https://old.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConflict/comments/xwsvdt/putins_dueling_foot_soldiers_are_now_apparently/


Putin’s Dueling Foot Soldiers Are Now Apparently Killing Each Other Off

While Ukraine’s military has been successfully chasing Russian troops out of one territory after another, Vladimir Putin’s foot soldiers have apparently been turning their weapons on each other as the Russian leader’s “special military operation” continues to come apart at the seams in spectacular fashion.

The growing conflict resulted in a Wagner fighter gunning down a lieutenant colonel in the Russian army—a deadly episode of “friendly fire” that the Kremlin is said to be trying to sweep under the rug, according to the human rights group Gulagu.net.

“They are trying to hush up the incident and prevent publicity.

The fight reportedly erupted after some of the contract soldiers demanded the newly arrived draftees hand over their mobile phones and gear.

“The controversies surrounding the poorly executed partial mobilization, coupled with significant Russian defeats in Kharkiv Oblast and around Lyman, have intensified infighting between pro-Putin Russian nationalist factions and are creating new fractures among voices who speak to Putin’s core constituencies,” the Institute for the Study of War wrote in its Tuesday assessment.

"The territories will be with Russia forever, they will be returned.”

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:marseysnoo:

https://old.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/xwzkqv/at_least_28_killed_in_attack_on_thai_preschool/

https://old.reddit.com/r/anime_titties/comments/xwzky2/at_least_28_killed_in_attack_on_thai_preschool/

https://old.reddit.com/r/NoahGetTheBoat/comments/xx0t4n/just_why_would_anyone_do_this/

:marseybluecheck:

https://x.com/BBCBreaking/status/1577931304036868098#m


Thailand: Many children among dead in nursery attack

People are seen gathered outside the nursery in the aftermath of the attack By Simon Fraser BBC News An ex-policeman has killed at least 37 people, most of them children, in a gun and knife attack at a childcare centre in north-east Thailand.

One of them was a teacher who was eight months pregnant.

The verdict was scheduled to be delivered on Friday.

The details of what followed are still emerging, but after the killing spree the attacker fled the scene in a white four-door Toyota pick-up truck with Bangkok registration plates, according to police, who launched a search for him and warned locals to keep indoors for their own safety.

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:marseysnoo:

https://old.reddit.com/r/unitedkingdom/comments/xx4stm/national_grid_warns_households_could_face/

https://old.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/comments/xx4qak/national_grid_warns_households_could_face/


Households could experience a series of three-hour power cuts this winter if Vladimir Putin shuts off gas supplies from Russia and Britain experiences a cold snap, National Grid has warned.

Such an event would mean consumers in different parts of the country being notified a day in advance of three-hour blocks of time during which their power would be cut off, in an effort to reduce total consumption by 5%.

The emergency plan would need to be approved by King Charles on the recommendation of the business secretary.

National Grid said that in the “unlikely event” of a shortage of gas supplies that some consumers would be without power for “pre-defined periods” during a day to “ensure the overall security and integrity of the electricity system across Great Britain”.

It said there would have to be reduced electricity imports from Europe and insufficient gas supply to power stations for the planned power cuts to happen.

National Grid has published a range of scenarios that could occur this winter as it assesses a highly uncertain period for power supplies, amid the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

A senior industry source said: “We’re heading into winter in an unprecedented situation. Even during the cold war, the Soviet Union kept the gas flowing so it’s very unpredictable.”

National Grid has worked on a series of initiatives to attempt to manage supply and demand this winter. It is ready to call into action five coal-fired power plants, which can generate up to 2 gigawatts of power – after signing deals with Drax, EDF and Uniper at a cost of £340m to £395m.

It will also launch a “demand flexibility service” on 1 November that will encourage businesses and consumers to use power outside peak demand periods, including early evenings on weekdays. Consumers with smart meters will be notified the day before and will be paid for using power outside these time periods. The initiative was trialled by Octopus Energy earlier this year.

National Grid hopes this service will free up an extra 2GW, enough to power about 600,000 homes, if enough companies and households participate.

The network operator stressed it was “cautiously confident” that there would be enough electricity to meet the demands of businesses and consumers this winter.

In its “base case” scenario, National Grid’s electricity system operator believes there will be about 3.7GW more of electricity generated than the country needs. It forecast a “sufficient operational surplus throughout winter” although it expects tight margins from early December through to mid-January, excluding Christmas.

However, National Grid mapped out two alternate scenarios in which a shortage of gas in Europe, which could be caused by Russia cutting supplies, or outages in another country’s generation fleet, interrupted energy supplies.

Under the first scenario, electricity imports from France, Belgium and the Netherlands are cut for the whole winter. This would put the coal-fired stations into action and trigger the demand flexibility service.

Under the more drastic vision, a shortage of gas would knock out around 10GW of gas-fired power generation and “temporary rota load shedding”, where consumers are disconnected, would be employed.

A reduction in Russian gas supplied into Europe, including the cut off of the damaged Nord Stream 1 pipeline, has caused a rush for gas supplies in Europe. A European Commission target of filling gas storage facilities by 80% by 1 November looks likely to be hit, however a period of colder weather could push up demand. Although Britain is not reliant on Russian gas, importers are exposed to the knock on effects.

The majority of Great Britain’s gas supplies come from the North Sea and Norway, with the bulk of the remainder from liquified natural gas imports from across the globe. Imports from Europe, notably during winter, typically account for about 6% of gas supplies.

However, if a squeeze in Europe puts pressure on these supplies, Britain may be forced to seek gas from different sources, including increased LNG imports where there is competition from countries around the world.

National Grid said it expected gas and electricity prices to remain high through the winter.

Any potential for power cuts will also be highly dependent on the weather. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts this week said Europe could suffer a colder winter with less rain and wind than average. It predicted a period of high pressure over western Europe in November and December that could reduce the amount of renewable power generated.

Fintan Slye, the executive director of National Grid ESO, said: “Under our base case, as set out in the winter outlook, we are cautiously confident that there will be adequate margins through the winter period.

“As an expert and responsible operator of Great Britain’s electricity system it is incumbent on us to also factor in external factors and risks beyond our control like the unprecedented turmoil and volatility in energy markets in Europe and beyond.”

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