Key points:
1. Research productivity levels are down compared to the 70's
2. Number of disruptive discoveries is decreasing over time
3. Most new research seems to be more about studying already discovered knowledge rather than making new discoveries
Conclusion:
Global innovation peak is behind us, the world and new inventions are only going to keep slowing down over time. We are moving ever further from the golden era. We are going to keep moving from one revolutionary innovation in a decade to one in 1.5 decades to one in 2 decades and so on and so forth.
Second part of the conclusion:
This slowdown in innovation should apply to the US as well. Which means that over time the US GDP growth rate will also slow down decade by decade irrespective of what it does in the future. Which means we are reaching the limits of American innovation and the future is either going to be a near stagnant system with the US on top, or a new emergent system that replaces the US ( Most likely candidate is East Asia with its 10 points higher IQ )
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
I worry about maintaining what we have because complex systems require maintenance and the ratio of not-r-slurred people keeps going down everyday and at some point there won't be enough nonr-slurs to keep the machine going. I'm really counting on future doctors and engineers coming to fruition.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
I think the real hope is that AI is smart enough to take over maintenance
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
More options
Context
More options
Context