. Peak human will happen earlier. China's population to fall from a cliff 
, US to remain strong and stable 
LATAM declines and ages
https://ourworldindata.org/un-population-2024-revision
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Quick where's that guy who's always posting about pop decline
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First of all, you nerdshit BIPOCs, when I post the same thing I barely get 4 upmarseys and this dude got 52 so far.
Secondly, just like wealth, population is going to congregate to the richest places of the world along with the high reproducers.
We can expect the top 10 highest population countries to have more than half of the world's population by 2100.
I also expect fertility rates to continue to decline faster than UN projections so far, because they keep trying to stick to the middle path.
As per my research fertility rate decline only slows down when an economic crash occurs, otherwise the decline rate is around 0.3 ( approx ) per decade.
So global fertility is going to go below two by 2030, or 2040 by the latest.
As per my calculations Global population will peak before it reaches 10 billion people. We are already in the end game.
Also look at this dumb shit:
The UN expects European fertility rate to climb by 2100. Current European fertility rate is 1.46, and unless they are all going to embrace French culture by 2100, that number isn't going to change.
Only Africa's fertility rate is declining on that image continuously till the end of the century. The UN is expecting the rest of the world to just get stuck at one level of fertility rate which makes no sense because the fertility rates across continents have been declining decade on decade, and there is no emergence of a population group so far that wants to have more children than current populations at current quality of life.
Even Europe, which had flatlined around 1.5% for a decade or two, went below 1.5% in current year.
Canada and US fertility rate is also consistently on the decline, along with Mexico, so their fertility rate is also not going to stay the same although they have the best chance of staying the same with added immigration.
Every single continents fertility rate is still declining. Only Oceania and Africa are above replacement. Oceania will go below replacement in another decade at the most, and Africa is 4.12 but decline at a fast rate of 1 per 2 decades which puts them at reaching below replacement rates in another 40 years ( 2074) which means African population will peak at the beginning of the 22nd century.
The whole population growth rate now is dependent on African population growth rate outpacing the rest of the world's population decline till the end of the century.
Currently Africa has 35 million excess births in total. If the rest of the world ever falls into more than 35 million excess deaths ( that is 0.5% approx population loss per year for the rest of the world at current population levels ), then global population would decline.
The only way the current medium projection of the UN works is if Africa's population does not decline any further while the rest of the global population continues to decline faster. Or if the rest of the world population does not decline any further, but Africa's fertility rate consistently continues to decline.
This is unrealistic. Most realistic scenario would be for both Africa's fertility rate to decline and the rest of the world's population and fertility rate to decline as well, with the floor being 0.8-1.5 for humanity outside Africa.
Conclusion:
Expect the global population to reach somewhere between the medium UN projections and their lowest population projections. With global population at the end of the century falling to 7.5 billion people and declining.
I hate you nerds for clapping for the other person who just repeated my joke but louder.
On the other hand China is going to replace their declining populations with robots and they have already prepared for this eventuality. Do not expect China to go into long term stagnation any time soon.
They have a large enough internal population that isolation is not really going to stop them, just slow them down at most.
The UN goes out of its way to make projections that minimize chaos or panic by the looks of things.
Global population is never reaching 10 billion. We have convinced too many people that having kids doesn't matter, and we are only getting better at it each generation.
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keep yourself safe
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https://rdrama.net/h/nerdshit/post/284810/new-un-population-prospects-dropped-marseyplanet/6708089#context
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