. Peak human will happen earlier. China's population to fall from a cliff 
, US to remain strong and stable 
LATAM declines and ages
https://ourworldindata.org/un-population-2024-revision
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!latinx que le pasa a la Argentina? La caída empezó en 2016
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Não sei, mas poderíamos fazer a nossa parte para ajudar
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Si BIPOC
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The UN's population projections are way too bullish, for the most part they assume fertility stabilizes. South Korea, which has sub-1 child for each woman fertility rates, is expected to stabilize or even go up a bit even though there are no signs of fertility not dropping off a cliff
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Beware this is the UN "medium fertility" scenario. What's funny is that the "low fertility" scenario of 10 years ago is the medium scenario nowadays. I honestly don't see SK TFR bouncing back above 1 in the next 20 years, there's a point at which TFR are so low and the young are in such a despair state it just becomes self-reinforcing.
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Yeah, brother. That's how a projection works. You make some estimates and then you make new estimates based on how things actually play out.
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Good thing they predicted that huge shift back then.
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How isn't this just wildly optimistic over the next 25 years (and it's only the medium case scenario)? What is their reasoning for fertility rates stabilising, even rebounding, over the next 25 years? I'm pretty sure preliminary data for SK this year has it further declining where this projection has it increasing.
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Because the assumptions built into their model says the fertility rate will increase, you stupid non-sciencer.
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Because all "scientific projections" are made by r-slurs.
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Data science is a woman job and for males who did good at high school and nothing else
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Managed decline, they know we're in the Great Filter
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Haha I wonder how the ferility rate in South Korea will rise out of nowhere?
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I'd be the next Genghis Khan if I was 6ft
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I wanna impregnate Japanese women though...
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They also seem to use outdated data if the birth rate people I´m following on Twitter are even half-right.
World pop will likely peak earlier and lower. Might never break 10 bil.
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The numbers are complete bullshit, the chinks are never going to get back to replacement fertility and America is a dying nation.
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Compared to what though.
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Compared to Asia and eventually (in 100+ years) Africa. Unless something cataclysmic happens like a failed Taiwan war, China is almost assured to be the next global superpower, plus you have Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand etc all doing great and essentially forming China's Europe that it can exploit just like the Americans exploited Europe after 1945. India will always be a shithole.
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China's population is aging in falling as they can't accept too many immigrants. America is set to continually expand. Second, for SE Asia to be China's Europe, China should probably stop antagonizing them and instead uniting SE Asia under America. The country with the most positive opinion of America is Vietnam.
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The Burger population chart is most likely extrapolating immigration in their projections but if the population in Latin America falls off a cliff, where are they coming from? Because even the trad larpers don't frick and will never have kids.
Not even taking into account the current attitude towards immigration. Maybe they assume public opinion does a Zimbabwe and says "Wait! Come back!"
At a certain point Africa's rate will plummet, too.
Hopefully the mortality rate goes off the deep end as well, and we reach a more steady state society. Already there's more experimental treatments like FOX04-DRI and treatment using Yamanaka actors which can regress cells in age. This is less some kind of immortality and more of a state of negligible senescence , in which age no longer correlates with mortality.
Recently it looks like Asian and European investors are more interested in following those leads.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/investment-reverse-ageing-research-biotech-3182226
https://phys.org/news/2023-07-discovery-chemical-reverse-aging-cellular.html
It would appear the human population tends to regulate itself on the macro scale.
Any way you slice it, get ready for some societal changes like retirement not really being a thing anymore and having your first child at 80.
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The immigration projections for the US account immigrants from Asia mostly, and also Africa as a potential in the long term. They also take in account Latin Americans are migrating in lower numbers to the US as LATAM countries develop.
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The US is such a highly-desired place to live that as long as somebody somewhere is looking for a new country, we'll have people knocking down the doors to get in.
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African immigrants are continually increasing. Pay to get to Mexico/Columbia and walk 5he rest of the way.
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Walking from Colombia is a bold move, they deserve to get in if they make it here like a Ugandan Bear Grylls
!latinx
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Wrong. It's still mostly Latin Americans and Asians.
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Learn reading comprehension. I said that African rates increasing, not that they are the majority crossing the border. They wil be in two decades at most, but not right now.
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prove it.
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Mostly still Latin America and Asia. The problem there is that Asian immigrants also have the lowest fertility rates in the US.
The US immigration system currently is not designed to increase fertility rates, but rather to increase population in spite of declining fertility rate. As long as they are higher than Europe they are happy.
Quality of life when alive, not length of time alive is the general focus now if I got it right. They want to cure stuff like Alzheimers and dementia so that when you die it's your body that can no longer keep up and not your brain.
Yes.
Wrong. Automation would likely take up the bulk of retirement funding.
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North and South America have all the Amish so no matter what we will have the population growth long term even if it takes 500 years for our bearded brethren to fill the entirety of the land with cornfields, puppy mills and pregnant teenagers
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Amish Projected To Overtake The Current US Population In 215 Years, If Growth Rates Continue
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Look at Israel, where the Ultra Orthodox are headed that way and it's no longer a joke lol
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This is a recorded phenomenon where the most extreme and dedicated subcultures slowly overtake all others in raw numbers when left unchecked. Another example of this is the Mormon population in the western US.
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I guess this justifies eradicating them, in that case
Just a little too far outside of the box? You're getting sent to the mines
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In 2500 do they level up to 2000 technology or does it stay the same
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Can't go over -10 Tech or your fertility bonus goes away
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amish don't reject all technology, individual communities pick and choose which new technologies they'll adopt so there are different amish villages with wildly varying tech levels.
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It would be funny if the Mennonites ended up being the dominant ethnic group in the Americas
Krauts playing the long game
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Mennonite and Morman futures
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In 3500, the ruling body of the Federated Mennonite States makes up the majority of the world, with an expansionary eye towards the now unused southern portions of China, as their population has continued to collapse.
The Mennonite VASMIR generation ships, Prudence and Humility, have been launched to Tau Ceti in accordance with God's order to "be fruitful and multiply".
Nobody expected the Bugs...
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Everyone wants to be in the US of A, baby
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!macacos
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That's the one that confuses me tbh. Why is Brazil in decline? Are the urbancels really that crowded?
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Slum dwellers are going to use more and more contraceptive methods because there is no reason to raise a child in abject poverty in an environment that probably going to turn xe child into a criminal, and those in the city living in condominiums and/or private neighborhoods won't bother having more than 2 children since it is a financial burden (I am speculating)
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Only 8% of the population lives in slums lol.
I remember some r-slurred mexican youtuber once said "half of Brazil's population live in this shanty towns known as favelas", literally pulling it out of his butt.
Most Brazilians live in houses, including those in large metro areas, foreigners believe Rio de Janeiro is a representative of the entire country.
These are what typical working class neighborhoods look like.
!macacos
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I had thought half of the population lived in slums up in the mountains from all the BBC and VOX video slop about brazil's inequality, but wouldn't 8% still be a significant part of Brazil? Around 15m-20m, which I guess are concentrated in the metropolitan areas mostly. Also are there any vertical slums? Or residences akin to the Hillbrow tower in South Africa prior renovation
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17 million people to be more precise. Yes, the favelas are concentrated in large metropolises like Rio, São Paulo, Salvador, Recife, Porto Alegre, etc.
But Brazil has many "medium sized" (like 200-800k inhabitants lol) cities with no slums. The state of Rio de Janeiro in particular has the largest concentration of them.
Because every single docu anglocels make on Brazil (or LATAM as a whole) has to be about the poorest, dirtiest, ugliest shitholes they can find, and the pretty parts are depicted as a negative. Imagine someone produced a "documentary" on the US and focused solely on ghettos and trailer park trash.
!latinx !macacos
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That's the video essay sloppa I get recommended though, America's inequality, ghetto zones like Brooklyn or New Orleans, etcetcetc. By the way what are the most remote settlements in Brazil? I know of Manaus which is in the middle of the amazonian jungle, and maybe a town like Ipixuna* which is only accessible by river, or Tristan da Cunha which is under Brazilian legislation but it isn't mainland Brazil.
[Town of Ipixuna in the middle of amazonian rainforest, near Manaus, Brazil]
Also what about Brasilia? It was supposed to be a modern city but the pictures of them look so soulless, like Pyongyang or Ashgabat in Turkmenistan
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That's a question for
@Horned_waifus_shill
He's a brave modern-day frontiersman. But basically it would be towns in states like Acre, Amapá and Rondônia.
That particular picture of Brasilia is from the "Esplanada dos Ministérios". That's the seat of the Federal Government, however the city has 3 million inhabitants, is just very sprawled
Brasilia is a product of the 1950s that's why it's so car-centric. The main buildings were designed by Oscar Niemeyer (who was a commie by the way) and the layout for the city was designed by Lúcio Costa as part of his "Plano Piloto".
They wanted a "futurist" city but it's actually really lame and urbanistically bad as every thing is so far apart.
!engineering another reason why we need an architecture ping
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That unironically looks like heck to drive in and I've been to NYC
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They built it in the middle of nowhere neighbor, it is very soulless
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Hey now, trailer parks can be all fancy-like.
Right !bumpkins?
Democracy is the art and science of running the circus from the monkey cage.
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Brazilian documentary about the utter depravity of the "Branson Belle"
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Unironically yes. Gated trailer parks exist
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Not living up to its name
Most Burgers' ideas of Brazil come from Blanka in Street Fighter, Only The Strong, City of God, and Carnival. I've met people who think the country is literally just the fricking Amazon rainforest even though like, what, like only 3.5 million people live in Amazonas?
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6 to 8 Million of those are in Rio
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Kinda cozy honestly
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I don't understand
you just posted two pictures of slums. Post some of a normal working class neighborhood lol
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These are favelas
And these (the houses along buildings) are regular neighborhoods. But so are the buildings themselves as 1/3 of the population lives on apartment buildings.
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See, those last two look like (albeit dense) neighborhood homes. The first two pics definitely in op looked like the slums.
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This is not a slum, just a rough poorcel neighborhood, the houses are ugly but they're actual houses with walls. Slum "houses" are precarious dwellings made of bricks and roofs of metal sheets, most don't even have plumbing.
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!burgers
I think that's a decent portion of the houses in West Virginia tbh
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Probably irony but those are not slums. Slums are characterized by the precarious materials, such as bricks used for exposed brick walls, and zinc sheets used for the roof, alongside somewhere to place a water tank. The ones in the picture are typical homes you do find in towns in south America
[Pictured are slums from Haiti, Port-Au-Prince, in the sector of Jalousie]
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Brazil has a fertility rate of 1.4 lmao, it's much lower than the US and Western. Europe. It fell below 2 almost 20 years ago and has never recovered.
People just don't want kids anymore and contraception is available.
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Quick where's that guy who's always posting about pop decline
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First of all, you nerdshit BIPOCs, when I post the same thing I barely get 4 upmarseys and this dude got 52 so far.
Secondly, just like wealth, population is going to congregate to the richest places of the world along with the high reproducers.
We can expect the top 10 highest population countries to have more than half of the world's population by 2100.
I also expect fertility rates to continue to decline faster than UN projections so far, because they keep trying to stick to the middle path.
As per my research fertility rate decline only slows down when an economic crash occurs, otherwise the decline rate is around 0.3 ( approx ) per decade.
So global fertility is going to go below two by 2030, or 2040 by the latest.
As per my calculations Global population will peak before it reaches 10 billion people. We are already in the end game.
Also look at this dumb shit:
The UN expects European fertility rate to climb by 2100. Current European fertility rate is 1.46, and unless they are all going to embrace French culture by 2100, that number isn't going to change.
Only Africa's fertility rate is declining on that image continuously till the end of the century. The UN is expecting the rest of the world to just get stuck at one level of fertility rate which makes no sense because the fertility rates across continents have been declining decade on decade, and there is no emergence of a population group so far that wants to have more children than current populations at current quality of life.
Even Europe, which had flatlined around 1.5% for a decade or two, went below 1.5% in current year.
Canada and US fertility rate is also consistently on the decline, along with Mexico, so their fertility rate is also not going to stay the same although they have the best chance of staying the same with added immigration.
Every single continents fertility rate is still declining. Only Oceania and Africa are above replacement. Oceania will go below replacement in another decade at the most, and Africa is 4.12 but decline at a fast rate of 1 per 2 decades which puts them at reaching below replacement rates in another 40 years ( 2074) which means African population will peak at the beginning of the 22nd century.
The whole population growth rate now is dependent on African population growth rate outpacing the rest of the world's population decline till the end of the century.
Currently Africa has 35 million excess births in total. If the rest of the world ever falls into more than 35 million excess deaths ( that is 0.5% approx population loss per year for the rest of the world at current population levels ), then global population would decline.
The only way the current medium projection of the UN works is if Africa's population does not decline any further while the rest of the global population continues to decline faster. Or if the rest of the world population does not decline any further, but Africa's fertility rate consistently continues to decline.
This is unrealistic. Most realistic scenario would be for both Africa's fertility rate to decline and the rest of the world's population and fertility rate to decline as well, with the floor being 0.8-1.5 for humanity outside Africa.
Conclusion:
Expect the global population to reach somewhere between the medium UN projections and their lowest population projections. With global population at the end of the century falling to 7.5 billion people and declining.
I hate you nerds for clapping for the other person who just repeated my joke but louder.
On the other hand China is going to replace their declining populations with robots and they have already prepared for this eventuality. Do not expect China to go into long term stagnation any time soon.
They have a large enough internal population that isolation is not really going to stop them, just slow them down at most.
The UN goes out of its way to make projections that minimize chaos or panic by the looks of things.
Global population is never reaching 10 billion. We have convinced too many people that having kids doesn't matter, and we are only getting better at it each generation.
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keep yourself safe
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https://rdrama.net/h/nerdshit/post/284810/new-un-population-prospects-dropped-marseyplanet/6708089#context
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Whatever we can do to get that African fertility down let's do it. Pump (down) those numbers. Fricking strangle those numbers. Chauvin those numbers if you have to, let's see that zero.
Democracy is the art and science of running the circus from the monkey cage.
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Pray to Bill Gates.
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!slots 10000
!goomblers
I was deceived it was only gold in my notifs
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!slots1000 btw
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Mine too, besty.
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Is this higher than the Afrikaners?
@kaamrev are you 
?
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DEATH TOO MICKS
@kaamrev stand with Israel
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We fought for your Boer republics thougheverbeit. The Transvaal Irish Brigade served throughout the war
https://clofiann.com/product/the-irish-brigade-in-south-africa/
!bookworms
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Lord Kitchener did nothing wrong and Ireland should have gotten the same treatment
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Hey dramatards
try having s*x
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As an american i dont know or care what any of these graphs mean.
USA! USA! USA!
!slots500
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The rich get richer b-word
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Just kill me now
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Lol just look around m8
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Try not being poor.
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I didnt mean that its money making it unstable. I also am not poor lol
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Worthless predictions. Much of it depends on per capita income, and good luck calculating that up to 2100.
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Fertility rates are not related to income though. They're rather related to urbanization, access to contraception, female participation in the workforce and up to some level, religiosity.
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Capitalism is good for the whole world because baby factory cultures are ruthlessly exploited for labor until they get educated and stop having babies
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How do you upload multiple images at once?
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I had a kind of racist dream just don't report what I say as I will try my best to keep it unoffensive
I put nsfw censor on so I might not offend everyone but my dream was Coldplay at a concert and they were singing paradise but the para para part was replaced with the n word the actual paradise was replaced with fried rice
Snapshots:
https://ourworldindata.org/un-population-2024-revision:
ghostarchive.org
archive.org
archive.ph (click to archive)
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