KingofZemblaking/sire
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1mo ago#6706377
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The UN's population projections are way too bullish, for the most part they assume fertility stabilizes. South Korea, which has sub-1 child for each woman fertility rates, is expected to stabilize or even go up a bit even though there are no signs of fertility not dropping off a cliff
How isn't this just wildly optimistic over the next 25 years (and it's only the medium case scenario)? What is their reasoning for fertility rates stabilising, even rebounding, over the next 25 years? I'm pretty sure preliminary data for SK this year has it further declining where this projection has it increasing.
Beware this is the UN "medium fertility" scenario. What's funny is that the "low fertility" scenario of 10 years ago is the medium scenario nowadays. I honestly don't see SK TFR bouncing back above 1 in the next 20 years, there's a point at which TFR are so low and the young are in such a despair state it just becomes self-reinforcing.
South Korea, which has sub-1 child for each woman fertility rates, is expected to stabilize or even go up a bit even though there are no signs of fertility not dropping off a cliff
Haha I wonder how the ferility rate in South Korea will rise out of nowhere?
Compared to Asia and eventually (in 100+ years) Africa. Unless something cataclysmic happens like a failed Taiwan war, China is almost assured to be the next global superpower, plus you have Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand etc all doing great and essentially forming China's Europe that it can exploit just like the Americans exploited Europe after 1945. India will always be a shithole.
China's population is aging in falling as they can't accept too many immigrants. America is set to continually expand. Second, for SE Asia to be China's Europe, China should probably stop antagonizing them and instead uniting SE Asia under America. The country with the most positive opinion of America is Vietnam.
. Peak human will happen earlier. China's population to fall from a cliff 
, US to remain strong and stable 
LATAM declines and ages
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The UN's population projections are way too bullish, for the most part they assume fertility stabilizes. South Korea, which has sub-1 child for each woman fertility rates, is expected to stabilize or even go up a bit even though there are no signs of fertility not dropping off a cliff
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How isn't this just wildly optimistic over the next 25 years (and it's only the medium case scenario)? What is their reasoning for fertility rates stabilising, even rebounding, over the next 25 years? I'm pretty sure preliminary data for SK this year has it further declining where this projection has it increasing.
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Managed decline, they know we're in the Great Filter
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Because the assumptions built into their model says the fertility rate will increase, you stupid non-sciencer.
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Because all "scientific projections" are made by r-slurs.
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Data science is a woman job and for males who did good at high school and nothing else
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Beware this is the UN "medium fertility" scenario. What's funny is that the "low fertility" scenario of 10 years ago is the medium scenario nowadays. I honestly don't see SK TFR bouncing back above 1 in the next 20 years, there's a point at which TFR are so low and the young are in such a despair state it just becomes self-reinforcing.
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Yeah, brother. That's how a projection works. You make some estimates and then you make new estimates based on how things actually play out.
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Good thing they predicted that huge shift back then.
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Haha I wonder how the ferility rate in South Korea will rise out of nowhere?
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I'd be the next Genghis Khan if I was 6ft
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I wanna impregnate Japanese women though...
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They also seem to use outdated data if the birth rate people I´m following on Twitter are even half-right.
World pop will likely peak earlier and lower. Might never break 10 bil.
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The numbers are complete bullshit, the chinks are never going to get back to replacement fertility and America is a dying nation.
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Compared to what though.
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Compared to Asia and eventually (in 100+ years) Africa. Unless something cataclysmic happens like a failed Taiwan war, China is almost assured to be the next global superpower, plus you have Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand etc all doing great and essentially forming China's Europe that it can exploit just like the Americans exploited Europe after 1945. India will always be a shithole.
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China's population is aging in falling as they can't accept too many immigrants. America is set to continually expand. Second, for SE Asia to be China's Europe, China should probably stop antagonizing them and instead uniting SE Asia under America. The country with the most positive opinion of America is Vietnam.
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