1. Defeat of Russia in Ukraine Russia war - This would happen if the Russians lose more equipment than they can produce. While Russians can produce artillery effortlessly, there are mixed reports of whether they can produce enough tanks to replace their losses in the Russia Ukraine war. If Russia does run out of cold war stores of equipment, it would result in Russia's weapons stockpiles depleting year on year at current rates ( Excluding artillery ). Russia would not lose the war because of manpower losses, but because of equipment losses.
2. If failure in Ukraine Russia war then continual decline of Russia as a global power - This one is going to be harder than previously planned, as Russia is supported by two major developing economies, India and China, both of which together are a large enough market of 2.8 billion people to keep the Russian economy afloat. Russia's economy could either sink or swim, depending on how much they were actually dependent on western tech, however, there is a strong chance that China is more than capable of being a satisfactory alternative for Russian consumer hardware needs.
3. Invasion of Iran - Would only occur after the Russia Ukraine war is over. Almost guaranteed to happen as the US is always participating in some conflict at all times. After Afghanistan it was Ukraine Russia proxy war, after Ukraine Russia, it will be Iran.
4. Continual support to Israel for the next ten years. - Doesn't need explaining. When the last concentration camp jew dies, support for Israel will die with her.
5. Decline of China in relation to the US - China isn't going to collapse. Their FDI from the US still keeps increasing year on year. What the US wants out of China is to do a Japan and to stop growing any further at rates higher than the US growth rate. China looks set to follow this path with how high its debt to gdp ratio has already gotten.
6. Creation of new strategic US alliances - As new rival states rise on the world stage, the US requires new partners to be able to compete against them. With US rivals working together and growing together, it is in the US interests to expand its number of alliances and nation states dependent on it. The US is currently doing this by increasing its investment in Mexico so as to make it as dependent and subservient to the US as Canada. The US is also working on investing in Vietnam and India as future rivals to Chinese economic dominance, further lowering China's share of Asia's GDP. The primary goals here being : to decline China's share of world GDP, to decline China's share of continental GDP, to decline China's share of Regional GDP ( East Asia ).
likelihood of success:
1. Medium : Both sides have weird advantages and disadvantages. In the fog of war some are saying Russian troops are dying like flies, others are saying Ukrainian troops are dying at worse rates. Impossible to tell until war outcome.
2. High : Russia is already withdrawing its troops from around the world. The Ukraine - Russia war is at the very least going to result in a decline in Russian military influence across the world and a very likely decline in Russian weapons sales. While Russian defeat is not guaranteed, Russia influence being limited to the Eastern parts of the world very much is.
3. Medium : The US is always participating in some conflict around the world. The US will likely do so till the end of its existence. Iran sounds like the most likely candidate today, but if not Iran, then somewhere else for sure after Ukraine-Russia.
4. Very High : American boomers love Israel. American boomers run the senate.
5. High: Something inherently diseased in Chinese culture. Debt to GDP ratio too high and still growing. China becoming the next Japan would fit with their current demographics and declining GDP growth rate, along with current level GDP share matched against the US.
6. Very High: Already happening. Kenya to become a new Non-Nato Major ally of the US this year. Kenya is set to be the big powerful economy of Africa based on its current growth trajectory. US is the largest source of FDI for India currently. The Philippines is also a less talked about major US ally which will only grow stronger in the years ahead.
Conclusion:
US is succeeding in its geopolitical goals around the world.
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BIPOC all of these posts are your personal opinion
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"Politicians are the same all over. They promise to build a bridge even where there is no river."
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