whiz and Goomble God 
, 
Nate Silver 
, fires the first salvo at 538's 
discuss.
https://old.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/comments/1e6nw8v/nate_silver_why_i_dont_buy_538s_new_election_model/
!neolibs our boy is back to stir the pot.
Nate is bald. Nate is a compulsive gambling addict. Nate is gay. Nate is a libertarian. Nate is a furry (unconfirmed).
There is nobody I trust more when it comes to modelling elections.
Nate is literally /ourguy/ someone with a xitter account and or a paid subscription to his substack invite him here. I will give him 50k DC so he can indulge his goomblemaxxing addiction.
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The 538 subreddit has been constantly dunking on the 538 model for being completely disconnected from reality in regards to polling. Trump is absolutely bussy blasting Biden in polls and 538 has been showing Biden's chances increasing lol.
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"bussy blasting"
Up 3-5, statically insignificant change from before the assassination.
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I'm looking more at the swing state polls and in general not specifically post assassination attempt. And Trump is decently ahead.
Like this recent poll.
https://twitter.com/IAPolls2022/status/1813790015048077369
🇺🇲 2024 GE: @EmersonPolling
PENNSYLVANIA
🟥 Trump: 48% (+5)
🟦 Biden: 43%
—WISCONSIN
🟥 Trump: 48% (+5)
🟦 Biden: 43%
—MICHIGAN
🟥 Trump: 45% (+3)
🟦 Biden: 42%
—ARIZONA
🟥 Trump: 47% (+7)
🟦 Biden: 40%
—GEORGIA
🟥 Trump: 47% (+6)
🟦 Biden: 41%
—NEVADA
🟥 Trump: 46% (+5)
🟦 Biden: 41%
—NORTH CAROLINA
🟥 Trump: 48% (+7)
🟦 Biden: 41%
—#9 (2.9/3.0) | 7,000 RV | July 15-16
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Oh well when you said they've been showing biden's chances increasing, I assumed you meant as compared to before the assassination attempt. Yeah the swing states are not looking good overall, though I think Michigan and Wisconsin are still competitive
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I was referencing this article libs have been sharing around as copium. https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-polling-data-five-thirty-eight-1926226
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Aren't 5% leads like the one he has in Wisconsin huge?
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Yes, especially when his polling error is historically +3 to +5 in his favor lmao
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If I was a wingcuck I'd be suicidal or ecstatic, but, instead, all I care about is getting more money so I can sleep on it
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As a rule of thumb, Biden/Dems needs to be winning by at least 3% nationally for the electoral math to be favorable. Looking at the swing state individually shows some of the picture, but the national temperature checks right now are really bad for Dems.
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someone linked to this thread https://old.reddit.com/r/fivethirtyeight/comments/1e54o4l/by_my_findings_at_least_737_of_the_simulations_in/
this guy actually checked the simulations they posted and 75% dont make any sense, meaning there's some serious flaw in the math
as I said in another post, data analytics is a classic womans tech job where your job is to agree with the boss. And 538's new boss is 100% an ego driven lefty
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Meanwhile all the lib cope subreddits are desperately pointing to the 538 model as validation that Biden's chances aren't in the dumpster.
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The polls are very good for Trump rn but the Democrats' electoral machine in swing states can't be underestimated. 538 puts weight on economic fundamentals but comes up with nonsensical simulations.
I think people will continue to dislike the economy (particularly inflation and cost of living, but labor force participation isn't great either). But giving Dems a +3 due to mail-in ballots and how they don't have to get BIPOCs to go to the polls would make sense
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