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In my last State of the Race post, I discussed how tight the race was. Biden, despite the majority of Americans think he's old and r-slurred, had a very narrow lead over Donald Trump. I called it to close to call. Then the debates happened, and it became quite easy to call. Sleepy Joe was so bad that after some humming and hawing, he gave up and put Kamala in charge of the race. Any dreams of a 1968 Democratic shitshow were quashed as Harris extremely swiftly united the vast majority of the Democrats behind her candidacy immediately, with the ambitious types like Newsom and Pritzker instead bickering for second place as her running mate.

So, what does this mean?

Donald Trump (Crips - NY)

The facts for Teflon Don remain mostly unchanged. Here you have a tremendously unpopular man tied to tremendously unpopular Roe v Wade repeal (because America loves killing babies ) who can only win when he's facing off against people somehow less popular. There has been one major change - his running mate was announced

This eyeliner wearing cute twink has been the campaign's biggest weakness since announced. He is Trump's worst traits made manifest - while Trump has said he won't sign federal abortion bans, Vance has called for a total abortion ban without a r*pe or incest exception. While Trump's attitude towards women offends the median voter, Vance has said women in abusive marriages shouldn't leave. When Trump is left reeling trying to adapt to a new, much stronger opponent, J.D Vance has a minor media cycle about fricking a couch. (He probably didn't) (Probably).

Picking Vance was a double down to bring out his core base, despite the fact he had the r-slurred edgelord vote locked up, based on the idea that Trump would slap around Sleepy Joe. Up against someone that can form coherent sentences, he's suddenly a piece of dogshit.

Is Drumpf in an unwinnable situation? Not necessarily. His opponent is deeply flawed. She was given the thankless job of Border Czar, and that's an issue Trump has a massive leg up on. She can speak full sentences without sounding like she's about to die, but she's still tied to the unpopular Biden administration. There's already been a few decent ads attacking Kamala as a radical liberal, which could be effective. But will these ads generate more disccusion when Vance gets involved in another scandal about how people without kids shouldn't vote or whatever? Trump in the cycle has been strongest as an abstraction - the idea of Trump, this butthole who made the economy strong and preceded over a peaceful world, was someone the voter's could hold their nose for and vote. Trump, the butthole lunatic that hates women, does not get the same treatment.

And I'll address this now - plenty of people here will say "um who cares about Vance lole". Median voters do. The people who don't follow politics and like it to be nice and boring will care that the Vice-President would be a particularly r-slurred 4chan /pol/ user.

Kamala Harris (Alzheimer's Association - CA)

The above post makes it sound like Kamala's got this locked up, like the guys she got locked up for weed as DA in California, but that's not exactly true. Trump's net favourability averages out at -9.6%, while Cackling Kamala averages out at -13.6% according to the most recent gallup poll. The popular vote for Trump vs Harris ends with Trump leading by 1% - when Hillary Clinton won the PV with 2%, this seems dire for Kamala. So why was I pooping on J.D Vance so much?

Besides the fact he deserves it for robbing Burgum, there are only 2 issues with Kamala. 1. She's a terrible speaker 2. She's tied to Biden's administration.

Both of these problems are easily countered by her strength - she's not an old, old, old Catholic.

She is ready to make abortion, the Democrat's strongest issue, front and centre. And frankly, her likeability issues are overstated. It's not 2020 anymore, she doesn't sound like a high wine aunt anymore, she sounds fine. She's not good, she's not exactly Reagan or Bill Clinton, but she is entirely adequte. With just some modest rebranding, she can work on being more likeable in a away Trump can't work on his likeability issues (since being an butthole is his brand) and Biden's age issues (because he was dying). With months until November 4th and a massive cash advantage over Trump, it's my belief that she will win this race. And don't take my word for it - Trump is scared of her too, kittying out of the debates they had agreed on, since he cannot win against someone coherent and not dying.

Also I want to get this off my chest - I've seen people say online say "erm why are Republicans making fun of her laughing a lot lol they are weird" the laughing is bad!! It's annoying and fake and she should cut that shit out!! Don't you dare call her a Happy Warrior!! She is no Hubert Humphrey!!

Caveat

Kamala is seriously considering four men for her running mate. Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, Governor Andy Beshear of Kentucky, Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona and Secretary of Transport Pete Buttigegig. For the most part, these are all excellent choices. Shapiro has a controversial stance on education but would ensure the key swing state of Pennsylvania, Beshear is popular enough to win as a social liberal in deep red Kentucky but the Kentucky Dems don't want to lose him, Kelly was a fricking astronaut but has a poor record on unions.

Then there's Mayor Pete. Shapiro and Kelly having glaring weaknesses, but they're dull policy weaknesses. They aren't campaign derailing frick ups like calling all single women "cat ladies" to just really piss off every woman into getting up and stopping you from winning. They aren't Vance. Mayor Pete is. He provides no strengths and plays into Kamala's worst weakness, her ties to Biden. With the other running mates, Kamala is an agent of modest change. With Mayor Pete, she becomes the Joe Biden second term. Trump is likely praying for her to pick to Joe Biden, so he can reuse as many attacks as possible on her. If Mayor Pete is her running mate, then I believe Donald Trump would win.

What did Ben Garrison mean by this