Arrests made near the end of an officer's shift typically require overtime work, and officers respond by reducing arrest frequency but increasing arrest quality. Days in which an officer works a second job after their police shift have higher opportunity cost, also reducing late-shift arrests.
Cops less likely to arrest if their shift is about to end
https://www.nber.org/papers/w31985#fromrss
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I know spergs are gonna try to make this into some stupid general point, but thats both obvious and meaningless.
The arrests that might stick or might not, are of course going to be the ones cops wont do if it means overtime, because the chance that they do overtime for nothing is not worth it.
Instead what remains are the arrests for serious crimes where even 1 minute before their end of the shift, the cops have no alternative to arrest the suspect.
Arrest frequency and quality arent independent variables, changing one always has an impact on the other.
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The paper does in fact know that, and is not trying to imply otherwise:
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