[semi-effortpost] Slavshit State of Play (made by someone who just wants both sides to have fun)

Hecko rdrama!

I got sick of sandshit pretty quickly and went back to my true love- watching Slavs sit in trenches. However, I'm disappointed by the oldry of the posting here, so I thought I'd make this post of where I think everyone's at. ESLs feel free to argue in the comments.

COUNTEROFFENSIEV

Over the last few weeks the Ruskies have taken a string of random towns in the north of the country, which you may already know from the incoherent Salvposts made about it. This is significant because Zelensky is a PR-obsessed r-slur who hasn't heard of a strategic retreat, so this definitely wasn't planned. This is also insignificant because none of these towns have any value whatsoever beyond propaganda.

The "most" important of these towns is Avdiivka, which is pretty much Bakhmut but like a third of the size and less strategically important. The Ruskies are probably gonna take the town in the next month or so, because the patented zigga prisoner zerg rush seems to be working marginally better this time than last time. The Wagner guys are back on the front too (the whole Belarus thing fell apart after the world's most subtle assassination) so that's helping them out.

COUNTEROFFENSYIV 2.0?

The uKKKrainians still have a bit of life left in them though. Last week the hohols crossed the Dnieper/Dnipro (for mutts, that's the big river that goes through Ukraine that got flooded a few months back) and established a toehold on the other side. They tried to push their advantage this week but got repelled by the Putin enthusiasts. If they're able to hold this position until the Western paypigs come through again, it'd be a great position to start a counteroffensyiv from. Speaking of the paypigs,

HOW MUCH LONGER CAN THIS SHIT GO ON FOR

Both sides are facing manpower problems, but for different reasons. The fascists (Ukrainian) have been on full conscription since pretty much the start. However, the counteroffensyiv killed all their actually decent soldiers and pretty much everyone who was in the army pre-2021. This means the current Ukrainian army is being replenished by foids, olds, and fats, as well as increasingly being populated by people who don't want to be there.

The fascists (Russian) on the other hand can conscript much more than they've currently done, but they don't want to because every time they do hundreds of thousands of the smartest people in the country run away to Georgia or Kazakhstan (I've started noticing them around Japan too). This means that the Russian army is also full of olds, fats, and people who don't want to be there.

Ruzzian mil production is more or less making up for demand, although they haven't been able to go quite as artillery-mad as they were able to in the first year of the war, and Russian tanks remain a meme.

Hohol mil supply is where things get interesting. The Yanks still have a few months left to pass another aid bill through before things get dire, but the problem they're facing atm is regular ammunition more than the fancy shit. Because both side's strategy is shooting artillery at each other until the other side gives up, the hohols are going through a lot of shells. Because they're still mostly using old Soviet guns, they're also pretty inaccurate with it. Currently the Yanks are having to plunder Greece's shell supply in order to make up the shortfall, but I don't see how that's sustainable.

WHO WINS? WHO'S NEXT? I DECIDE

For the winter expect a whole lot of not much, although I do expect Avdiivka and adjacent villages to fall sometime in the next month. Long-term unless the burger paypigs do something drastic I don't see how the hohols are able to keep it going, so I reckon the Russians will finally capture Keev by June at the earliest and December 2024 at the latest.