The Russian state is going to lose geopolitical influence.

Here is why:

1. They send too many people to die in the Ukraine war

2. They no longer have the required troops to run the bases in other countries

3. They lose the conflicts in Africa and the middle east

4. All Russian influence for the next 3-4 decades now remains behind the Russian border line

This is irrespective of whether they win or lose the Ukraine war.

They won at the borders of Russia and lost everything away from Russia.

Similarly, the whole world appears to be going back to the old school geopolitical roadmap, backing off from their more far off areas of influence and instead refocusing on integrating systems right next door.

In the case of Europe we see them focused on Ukraine and further internal integration, Russia focused on Ukraine and further state control of the people, Israel focused on Palestine, US focused on Mexico. We are in the receding geographical influence stage of global networks, regrouping so to say. After regrouping comes expansion. We are very likely 1-2 at most generations away from a new age of expansionism based on current trends.

Russia has dedicated too many resources into a single victory condition, which leaves the rest of its holdings vulnerable to outside influence.

For example - Imagine any developed nation secret agency blackmailing a Russian agent for information so that in exchange their families can be extradited from Russia to a better life and a guarantee of never having to run the risk of being sent to the front line.

The most surprising part of the Russian war is that there has been no internal dissent so far. There are three possibilities:

1. The Russian people really do believe in the legitimacy of the Ukraine war

2. The Russian people's spirit is completely broken to the point they would never rebel.

3. The Russian people do not care about which Russian gets sent to the war as long as its not them.

Russia is also gaining ground in the Ukraine war every day now. Unless there is some secret Ukrainian tactic at play which will be revealed in time, this is not a good sign for the Ukrainians.

Taking into account that Ukraine has a total of 27500 villages and towns combined, and assuming the Russians are capturing one village or town per day, it would take the Russians 75 years to capture the country and 27 million casualties.

There also still remains the possibility of an internal Russian collapse before the war is over. This is dependent on them not being able to run all the required factories internally due to sending too much manpower to fight in the war. Due to Russia having negligible automation, it is very likely that they are unable to make up for production losses caused by sending people to the war, so every million more people fighting the war is another million peoples worth of internal production losses. The war time economy boom creates more tanks and missiles, but people cannot eat tanks and missiles. It becomes safe to assume a complete trade dependency on China for even base necessities such as food and alcohol.

Conclusion:

Russia may or may not take half of Ukraine, irrespective, Russian power has now peaked and it will never rise to these levels again, while becoming completely dependent on China for the continual running of the state.