Vladimir Putin Would 'Lose A War Against Nato In Three Days'

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/vladimir-putin-would-lose-a-war-against-nato-in-three-days_uk_66eac1d3e4b051614c508403

Vladimir Putin would lose a war against Nato in "three days", according to human rights activist and former financier for Russia, Bill Browder.

Fears the West could be pulled into direct conflict with Moscow have soared recently as Ukraine's allies consider allowing Kyiv to fire their long-range missiles into Russia.

There are also concerns that the Russian president could go nuclear if he thinks the West cross his own red lines.

But, Browder – who was the largest foreign investor in Russia until 2005, when he was declared a threat to national security and denied entry into the country – thinks worries over escalation are overstated.

"Putin thought he could win a war with Ukraine in three days, and it's now been two and a half years," Browder told Times Radio on Tuesday.

"If he were to initiate a war against Nato, he would lose that war in three days – and he's not going to do that."

Nato is a defensive military alliance and keen not to be pulled into a war against Russia – but it is seen as one of the world's most powerful organisations, with more than 3.39 million active military personnel.

For comparison, Russia has fewer than 1.5m troops in its army.

Browder continued: "Anyone who understands military strategy and military outcomes knows he is not going to do that.

"We effectively have two different types of people involved in the decision.

"You have the military men, who are all saying, 'This is nonsense, we should give Ukraine what they need.'

"And you have the non-military men, the policy men, who are analysts not soldiers, who are all just hiding under their desks and not wanting to be the person to take any kind of risk which would push Ukraine's interests forward."

Browder added that it was an "understatement" to say he was "frustrated" by the delays in allowing Ukraine to use the West's long-range missiles – made by the UK and France – called Storm Shadows.

While Ukraine does have access to such weapons right now, it is only permitted to use them for defensive purposes.

And, even if the UK and France give Ukraine permission to use the missiles for offensives, Kyiv would still need the go-ahead from the US to operate them fully because the weapons use American targeting systems.

Touching on the Kremlin's ongoing threats to go "nuclear" if the West help Ukraine too directly, Browder said: "Putin has already done everything we are afraid of him doing.

"The only thing he could do more is to initiate a nuclear attack, that's the big sort of boogie man.

"But if he does that, he ends up losing his alliance with China, losing his alliance with India, and there will certainly be a devastating response from Nato if he were to do that."

China's president Xi Jinping and India's PM Narendra Modi have both warned Putin against nuclear weapons in over the last few years.

Browder claimed: "From any sort of wargaming perspective, there's not that much of a downside whereas there is a big upside, which is Ukraine may be able to get the upper hand."

Putin would lose a war with NATO in three days. We should ignore Putin’s sabre rattling and allow Ukraine to use long range missiles to hit strategic targets in Russia. All military strategists think this is right. It’s just the appeasement policy analysts holding this up. pic.twitter.com/pX5v8XH0Zp

— Sir William Browder KCMG (@Billbrowder) September 17, 2024