Predictions for what will happen after Russia loses the war.

We all know Russia is going to lose the war. While Russia has far larger human waves than Ukraine that they are willing to sacrifice, modern warfare is won on the basis of tanks, artillery, and aircraft, which Ukraine is getting the more advanced supply of every year from the west.

Things have gotten bad enough for Russia in this current war that right now Ukraine possess land within Russia itself and has made 3-5% of Russia high risk due to drone attacks.

Every year has given us far worse news for Russia in this war than bad news for Ukraine.

The question then becomes, not of whether Russia is going to lose the war, but what happens after Russia loses the war?

While most of the experts continue to insist that Russia will just be poorer and weaker for having conducted this war, I insist that Russia will actually end up either going through a revolution or having a civil war of sorts if they lose this war. My reason for this being that losing the Afghanistan war, a conflict with far fewer Russian casualties than the current war, had a direct impact on the continued integrity of the Soviet Union. Similarly, Russia has already been suffering from a stagnant economy for a decade before the war, was on the verge of a declining population, suffering from continual brain drain, and is today suffering from global sanctions and being an international pariah due to the war. It has even gone on to lose support from China and Iran as the war goes on, with North Korea being the only country Russia has been able to strengthen ties with in recent years.

That is to say, Russia losing the current war would be one of the last bad kicks down the road for Russia, not the first big bad one. Russia losing this war would be a morale killer and what's worse, would end up with millions of veterans of this war who are all bitter about having had to suffer for nothing.

In the case of the US far bigger changes have taken place from losing far smaller conflicts such as losing the Vietnam War or the Afghanistan war.

For Russia, the loss of the current war would be a culture defining moment. Leaving a mark deep enough to influence the future of Russia for decades to come.

If the war were to end today, it would lead to zero improvements in the state of Russia and Russia would continue on in a negative trajectory. A nation state where poverty and suffering is increasing year on year, and they don't even have a war to justify it, can result in nothing else except massive instability with the best case scenario being the replacement of Putin as the leader of the state, and a change in the political direction of the country.

Looking at Russian history, the end of WW1 resulted in the Russian revolution and the abolition of the Russian monarchy.

The losses suffered by the Soviet Union in the Afghanistan War of 1989 resulted in the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

Now, Russia finds itself in a war with Ukraine that it started, which has cost millions of lives in total if we count the injured as well, emptied out prisons and rural territories, and has its military being filled up with outsiders, and at the end of it all is still losing. So there is no doubt in my mind that when Russia loses this war there is going to be enough chaos internally as to change the face of Russia one way or another, with the most likely result being an internal collapse of the Russian state once there are no jobs for the soldiers that have returned, once all the money promised to those who joined to army doesn't come, when the banks finally run out of money to feed the beast, money that cannot be replenished due to the sanctions that stay on even after the war is over.

By the end there would be Russians starving on the streets and that is when the revolution happens. When men willing to work cannot find jobs. When men willing to work cannot afford to pay the rent. When men willing to work cannot feed themselves for every single meal.

That is the future of Russia at the end of this war when it fails. A guaranteed revolution, because they have zero ways to recover their economy, and zero ways to provide for their people anymore, with things only getting worse over the next two decades even if the people do nothing to act against the state.

So when do you think the Russian state is going to collapse after the war is over?