Fertility post. Africa is the main source of reproduction in the world.

Africa is the major source of reproduction in the world. Assuming that African IQ goes up 3 points per decade they should be fit to immigrate to other parts of the world in another hundred years.

What we are more likely to see is that in the first generation we will have 0.01% of Africans living outside Africa, in second generation we will have 0.1% of Africans living outside Africa, in the third generation we will have 1% of Africans living outside Africa, and in the 4th generation we will have 10% of Africans living outside Africa.

As of now we are already on 4th generation as a population equivalent to 10% of Africa's population is living outside Africa in the form of immigrants and African immigrant descendants.

This ratio is likely to remain stable or go as high as 20% for this generation as Africans continue to immigrate primarily to South America., France, and the US, but the African native population itself keeps rising at a very high rate.

Generally, nation states have their fertility rate fall below replacement at per capita income levels in the 10s of thousands ( starting point is around the 2000s ). For Africa based on current trends we can expect their fertility rate to fall below replacement around a per capita income level of 15,000s at the higher projections.

Based on current trajectory, Africa's GDP per capita is currently 1,740 USD. Based on current growth rate we can expect Africa's GDP per capita to cross the 15000s by 2084, meaning their fertility rate would fall below replacement in 60 years from now.

Currently Africa's fertility rate is declining by 1.25% per year, which again tracks to their fertility rate going below replacement in 50-60 years.

We can assume that the developed world is not willing to decline in population.

We can also expect the developed world to be losing their native population at rates up to 1% per year.

Assuming the population of the developed world to be 1.4 billion altogether, and 1% of 1.4 billion being 14 million, the developed world will require 14 million Africans moving in every year or being displaced to other parts of the world as they take in the high skilled labor from those other parts of the world.

Africa being the bottom of the barrel would always be the last player in the chain supplying the 14 million people no matter what form the chain takes above them.

Assuming the first generation Africans on average have 2 kids, there will be 1.88 billion Africans in the African diaspora living outside Africa by the time the African population is below replacement levels. Which would be around approximately 30% of Africans living outside Africa by 2080s which again matches up with how immigration from poor countries to richer countries open to immigration scales up.

For example - There are about 37 million Mexican related individuals living in the US right now while the population of Mexico is around 129 million people. There are 80 million Germans living in Germany meanwhile the German diaspora size is 70 million people around the world.

The world population is expected to be 10.3 billion in 2084, which means 1.88 billion people or approximately 18.2% of the rest of the world will be made up of Africans or African descendant individuals.

For context, 91 million Brazilians ( 42% ) are of African descent. The mean IQ in Brazil is 87.8. We can safely assume that with a lower mix of African genetics in the global culture, the global IQ will remain higher than 87.8 by today's standards by the year 2084. This puts a lower limit on exactly what's the maximum level of stupid humanity as a species can get by 2084.

The US 14.4% of the population identifies as black, the average IQ in the US is 98.

Taking into account that US IQ scores are expected to continue increasing by 0.5 points per decade, we can conclude that the worst case scenario for the world with a 18.2% admixture of black genes will be a stagnant intelligence humanity where humans remain at current day IQ till the end of the century.

More likely scenario would be global IQ growth slowing down until it is rising by 1-2 points per decade, which means the species is not going to get noticeably smarter generation to generation which adds to the slowing down of humanity's intelligence development and thus humanity's research and tech growth.

Thus, the primary remaining way for humanity to keep growing technologically and intellectually would be to specialize and send all high skill manpower to a single nation state which again puts the US in a position where it will be leading the world in tech and IQ growth meanwhile the rest of the world stagnates behind the US over time. This is best case scenario. If the US fails then that means a global century of stagnation compared to the previous century and people noticing the world has really changed once every 100 years, i.e. nobody ever noticing the world grow and evolve within their lifetime.

Conclusion:

Betting on the US is betting on humanity. Anybody who cares about the species should be investing in the growth of the US.

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