Africa is the major source of reproduction in the world. Assuming that African IQ goes up 3 points per decade they should be fit to immigrate to other parts of the world in another hundred years.
What we are more likely to see is that in the first generation we will have 0.01% of Africans living outside Africa, in second generation we will have 0.1% of Africans living outside Africa, in the third generation we will have 1% of Africans living outside Africa, and in the 4th generation we will have 10% of Africans living outside Africa.
As of now we are already on 4th generation as a population equivalent to 10% of Africa's population is living outside Africa in the form of immigrants and African immigrant descendants.
This ratio is likely to remain stable or go as high as 20% for this generation as Africans continue to immigrate primarily to South America., France, and the US, but the African native population itself keeps rising at a very high rate.
Generally, nation states have their fertility rate fall below replacement at per capita income levels in the 10s of thousands ( starting point is around the 2000s ). For Africa based on current trends we can expect their fertility rate to fall below replacement around a per capita income level of 15,000s at the higher projections.
Based on current trajectory, Africa's GDP per capita is currently 1,740 USD. Based on current growth rate we can expect Africa's GDP per capita to cross the 15000s by 2084, meaning their fertility rate would fall below replacement in 60 years from now.
Currently Africa's fertility rate is declining by 1.25% per year, which again tracks to their fertility rate going below replacement in 50-60 years.
We can assume that the developed world is not willing to decline in population.
We can also expect the developed world to be losing their native population at rates up to 1% per year.
Assuming the population of the developed world to be 1.4 billion altogether, and 1% of 1.4 billion being 14 million, the developed world will require 14 million Africans moving in every year or being displaced to other parts of the world as they take in the high skilled labor from those other parts of the world.
Africa being the bottom of the barrel would always be the last player in the chain supplying the 14 million people no matter what form the chain takes above them.
Assuming the first generation Africans on average have 2 kids, there will be 1.88 billion Africans in the African diaspora living outside Africa by the time the African population is below replacement levels. Which would be around approximately 30% of Africans living outside Africa by 2080s which again matches up with how immigration from poor countries to richer countries open to immigration scales up.
For example - There are about 37 million Mexican related individuals living in the US right now while the population of Mexico is around 129 million people. There are 80 million Germans living in Germany meanwhile the German diaspora size is 70 million people around the world.
The world population is expected to be 10.3 billion in 2084, which means 1.88 billion people or approximately 18.2% of the rest of the world will be made up of Africans or African descendant individuals.
For context, 91 million Brazilians ( 42% ) are of African descent. The mean IQ in Brazil is 87.8. We can safely assume that with a lower mix of African genetics in the global culture, the global IQ will remain higher than 87.8 by today's standards by the year 2084. This puts a lower limit on exactly what's the maximum level of stupid humanity as a species can get by 2084.
The US 14.4% of the population identifies as black, the average IQ in the US is 98.
Taking into account that US IQ scores are expected to continue increasing by 0.5 points per decade, we can conclude that the worst case scenario for the world with a 18.2% admixture of black genes will be a stagnant intelligence humanity where humans remain at current day IQ till the end of the century.
More likely scenario would be global IQ growth slowing down until it is rising by 1-2 points per decade, which means the species is not going to get noticeably smarter generation to generation which adds to the slowing down of humanity's intelligence development and thus humanity's research and tech growth.
Thus, the primary remaining way for humanity to keep growing technologically and intellectually would be to specialize and send all high skill manpower to a single nation state which again puts the US in a position where it will be leading the world in tech and IQ growth meanwhile the rest of the world stagnates behind the US over time. This is best case scenario. If the US fails then that means a global century of stagnation compared to the previous century and people noticing the world has really changed once every 100 years, i.e. nobody ever noticing the world grow and evolve within their lifetime.
Conclusion:
Betting on the US is betting on humanity. Anybody who cares about the species should be investing in the growth of the US.
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As technology advances, the required IQ for a nation to get by slightly decreases. The main issue with lower IQ is not "power grids failing" as that can be fixed by an authoritarian state and imported smart laborers. The main issue is "stupid mfers vote for stupid shit in democracies". Democracy and low IQ do not pare well together. They vote in fascist dumbasses who threaten geopolitical stability and ruin free trade policies. In order to manage the soft IQ decline of the coming decades effective governments need to become more technocratic, retain a merit-based bureaucracy and be firmly anti-democratic at least in practice. This is why I'm actually fairly optimistic about the US in the 21st century. As the GOP continues to stay the party of white grievance, the DNC will get majoritarian rule over the US like they've gotten over California now as demographics advance. At the same time, China will continue to invest in technology and become the dominant world power on the tech tree itself outside of military operations. This will force the DNC to give deference more to their technocratic and free trade wing rather than their leftist wing in order to maintain any semblance of competition with China. While US power slips overall by the end of the century, they stay fairly high on the tech tree and become a slightly safer (guns and hateful/inciting speech will be banned) and higher average-quality-of-life (diverse solarpunk) country.
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Incorrect. Difference of opinion.
The more developed a society the higher the bottom levels of IQ required to function within its rules.
In the previous century a man with an IQ of 80 could probably feed an entire family and support them via cutting logs as a job. Today, that man is either homeless drug addict, or working at some bottom tier retail store as one of the shelf filling guys.
If we are to assume that the 70 IQ is the boundary line for r-slurs holds true, and that the 30 IQ increase in a century holds true in the past century, then 70 IQ from today would count as 100 IQ in the past century which would make them the average functioning Joe.
Yet everybody is confident that if you filled the developed world with 70 IQ people only the society would collapse within two to three generations at most.
In a lot of African nations when the Britishers left they left loads of rails and transportation infrastructure which was either ran to the ground or is currently still the best quality infrastructure in the region today.
Another example of being able to run a developed society with lower IQ not being true would be the case of mass refugee immigration to the developed world, where it has been often observed that it is difficult to integrate them into society and these people are generally not even capable of holding down jobs beyond taxi driver or Mcdonalds server.
What is true however of developed societies is that being dumb is no longer a death sentence, and a borderline r-slur can live a comfortably "poor" Lifestyle in a developed society and getting dumber won't really change this for those whose IQ is in the 80s or 90s or 100s.
Think of developed society as being divided into three segments, creators - those who build developed society further, generally 100 IQ and higher. Maintainers - those who maintain the system stability as the creators keep adding new pieces to it, and the mouthbreathers - those who are only a net positive in society because the developed society puts them exactly where they can be useful in the gaps at the bottom which cannot be automated yet but society in general considers beneath them.
Generally it is the maintenance and mouthbreather jobs that are stable even if people get dumber in a developed society, but the creator jobs require a consistent increase in IQ to reach for ever higher points on the tree of discovery and invention.
People have always voted for their perceived self interest. The trick is not to convince them they are stupid, the trick is to convince them that the thing they think is going to help is not actually going to help, or the thing that they think is not going to help is actually going to help. The hard part is that a logic based argument generally won't work as humans work within authority hierarchies and you need to gain yourself a position which appeals to them to listen to you.
Makes sense but the soft IQ decline is not going to hit the US as they keep taking in smart immigrants from the rest of the world. Moving to the US is great. Growing up there is where the risk of r-sluration rises.
Liberals are just conservatives from current year +30.
Disagree. The problem for China is that they are doing it all by themselves. The western world shares far more research and cooperates far more deeply with one another, which gives them the advantage of having researchers from a population of 1.4 billion along with a higher total budget split across cooperating nation states. Once China's economic growth stagnates, which it is very likely to within the next 10-15 years, China will get stuck similarly to Japan in the past. Imagine a lost generation but for the 2020s or 2030s.
Possible. To an extent already happening. Nobody is pushing for trans rights on the big political platforms these days far as I can tell. The conversation is actually turning to inflation and economy and social benefits for the common people.
It won't. The US always leapfrogs because the rival nation state in a rat race always burns out and gets stuck in place once again giving the US the space to keep growing. India while set for a good amount of economic growth, started off its golden decades at too low a GDP level, which limits it to remaining the second most powerful country in the world in a best case scenario. What we are likely to see is that the global economy is going to aggregate towards the top 4 or 5 players, with the rest holding around 10-20% of the total global GDP. The top five countries in current year already hold 54.5% of total global GDP. India is expected to make more gains than China is to make losses in the future. If we count the European Union as a single player then that number for the top 5 already goes as high as 65-70% of the world's GDP.
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Not happening. The average American politician isn't thinking the solution to life's problems is to turn into Europe. A high performing nation state does not want to emulate a lower performing nation state. What you might see however if a proper application of gun check laws at a federal level to ensure that you are actually not an at risk individual who is a danger to others or themselves.
Hate speech won't be banned. Speech that whoever does not like and is in power at the moment will be banned. You might actually see a return of the Nazi salute as a mass use meme due to the fact that the next generation is not going to care about the holocaust due to how old it is.
Higher average quality of life agreed.
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I'm about a decade too young to have lived this, but to be a young adult in a big city in 2006 must have been great. Rent is still cheap, you are going to graduate college next year, Eminem has 3 of the top 10 singles, and your dad is only 4 years away from getting his pension at a GM glass supplier. You turn on Comedy Central on a 21" CRT TV, take a big bong rip, and watch Jon Stewart rip apart W. The war on Iraq is the worst thing on earth, and the things you believe are correct. It's all going to get better from here, and the future is bright.
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