President Biden may decide to drop out of the presidential race as soon as this weekend, according to several top Democrats who believe the rising pressure will persuade the 81-year-old. https://t.co/Czmy98XMvQ
— Axios (@axios) July 18, 2024
https://www.axios.com/2024/07/18/president-biden-drop-out-election-democrats
Short version:
Several top Democrats privately tell us the rising pressure of party congressional leaders and close friends will persuade President Biden to decide to drop out of the presidential race, as soon as this weekend.
The president is being told that if he stays in, former President Trump could win in a landslide and wipe away Biden's legacy and Democrats' hopes in November.
"His choice is to be one of history's heroes, or to be sure of the fact that there'll never be a Biden presidential library," one of the president's close friends told us. "I pray that he does the right thing. He's headed that way."
Yesterday's AP poll, showing nearly two-thirds of Democrats want Biden to withdraw from the presidential race, ricocheted through the White House and Congress.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) told Biden in Rehoboth Beach, Del., on Saturday β the day of the assassination attempt on Trump β that it would be best if he dropped out, ABC News first reported. Dems on Capitol Hill want him out, and worry they'll lose winnable seats if not.
Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), a mastermind of the campaign to get Biden out, told him that he could destroy Democrats' chances of taking back the House. We're told she's also worried about donations drying up.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) delivered a similar, if more subtle, message to Biden.
Former President Obama has spoken loudly with his silence β and his former aides trashing Biden in public.
Bill and Hillary Clinton are doing what Obama's doing. So are their former aides.
We increasingly hear top Biden aides, including ones who initially urged him to fight on after his disastrous debate on June 27 β 21 days ago β are saying it's now when, not if, Biden announces he's not running.
"In recent days the President has become more committed to staying in the race," a senior Biden aide said.
But Biden is doing two new and telling things: listening more and asking about Vice President Harris' prospects against Trump. That's why you see all the leaks about Biden being open-minded. He would hardly talk to naysayers a week ago.
Harris would be hard to stop β perhaps impossible β if the Obamas and Clintons joined Biden, Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.) and the Congressional Black Caucus in backing her. It's not clear the coronation would be so fast and clear, however.
Also this:
Rightoid analysis:
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Biden is 100% better as a patsy at this point. Let him fall on the sword and wipe the slate clean for next election.
Or.... maybe they think ousting Biden will give dems downballot a better chance in Senate and House elections?
!chuds !nonchuds
Need you guy's opinions here
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primary_challenge
When party peers attempt to run against an incumbent President, YWNBAP. Same-party challengers have never won their party primaries (with a minor variation for 1952, see narrative below), and never win the General Election. 60% of the time the opposition party wins the presidency when party loses faith in their incumbent.
1952: DEM Truman contested by DEM Kefauver. RPB Eisenhower Presidential Win (DEM Truman dropped out early due to initial losses against DEM Kefauver, who ultimately lost the DEM Primary to DEM Stevenson, who lost the General Election to RPB Eisenhower).
1968: DEM Johnson contested by DEM McCarthy. DEM Johnson Presidential Win.
1976: RPB Ford contested by RPB Reagan. DEM Carter Presidential Win (RPB Ford Primary Win).
1980: DEM Carter contested by DEM Kennedy. RPB Reagan Presidential Win (DEM Carter Primary Win).
1992: RPB Bush contested by RPB Buchanan. DEM Clinton Presidential Win (RPB Bush Primary Win).
Democrats should NOT kick Biden unless they want a 50% guarantee to Trump.
!burgers ping ! historychads
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Have there really been enough presidential elections to predict things like this? It feels like a huge social sciences moment.
Follower of Christ
Tech lover, IT Admin, heckin pupper lover and occasionally troll. I hold back feelings or opinions, right or wrong because I dislike conflict.
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there seem to only be five data points
still, 0/5 is pretty shitty
but those stats never stopped people from trying Communism just one more time, since the other times didn't count
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How do you get 0/5? The first two has DEM contesting DEM and DEM winning? Or do you mean the contester always loses?
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That's what I meant, but you made me check my work, and I fricked up on the 1952 Election. Truman lost the DEM primary to his DEM peer, yet his replacement still lost to RPB Eisenhower. I'll need to fix the whole writeup.
I guess the ultimate lesson is "If your party has to consider replacing their Presidential incumbent, they rarely win the Party Primary contest, and of the single time that they did, they still didn't win the General Election. If you don't have faith in your own incumbent, simply accept that it is better than a coin toss for the opposition party to win."
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Communism is obviously a causal factor in what follows, because it's a comprehensive political system. The presence of a primary challenge is a function of the political environment, and does not by itself reshape that environment.
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Definitively a social sciences moment. (great phrase btw if you came up with it)
It's similar to how the chance of being assassinated/shot at as POTUS is absurdly high.
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Not how history or statistics work. Very impressive showing of
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Biden has a 50% chance -- he either wins or he doesn't.
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the first rule of statistics is that past results are perfect predictors of the future
!ifrickinglovescience !mathematics
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Eisenhower won in '52
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your mom won in 52
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!historychads
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Whose dumbass would choose to run in Biden's wake, and not only risk their party status but also give up their future, current role, and any bids at President next time around? Especially for a race they're almost guaranteed to lose.
The only person who might even consider it is Kamala, which would be hilarious and I want to see her as the head of the DNC for the next 6 months. From DEI to CEO lmao
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This is the logical conclusion, but you forgot to account for just how absolutely unhinged they are about Trump. They've bought into their own propaganda about him being giga Hitler and they refuse to allow him to hold another win over them.
For any other political race I think they would make that longterm concession, but they're going to go down frothing at the mouth for Trump, assuming they don't pull any more shenanigans (which they obviously will).
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plus its DC, they are all snakes pretending to be nice, from top to bottom
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