I don't foresee any meaningful changes. Michigan may go red and NC may go blue but I doubt it.
Let's see yours. Don't bother with the shades. We'll revisit this again in October.
As a reminder, I was off by around 1% in 2020.
Carp map:
Actual result:
They call me Nate Platinum.
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I think Trump has a good chance of winning, but I think it's possible for Dems to win if they hold all of the Midwest. The sunbelt is not competitive this year.
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Do you think Biden as is or Harris would have been better for the Blue shield of the Midwest plan??? I think even as dementia ridden Biden is better for holding the line in the great lakes
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I think Kamala will be an improvement in national polls and may help make the Sunbelt more competitive as the group giving Trump the edge there is young (20-30 year old) Blacks and Latinx which Kamala will do better with. However, if there is any part of the country that actually liked Biden more than Harris it is probably the Midwest, so Harris may actually do worse than Biden in the Midwest (*possible exception for Michigan which has the highest Arab and Muslim population, and who are traditional Democrats but are angry about the Gaza war, Harris has always been a little more pro-Palestinian than Biden and that may help her there). So Harris may be better in the popular vote, but actually worse for the electoral college.
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