I don't foresee any meaningful changes. Michigan may go red and NC may go blue but I doubt it.
Let's see yours. Don't bother with the shades. We'll revisit this again in October.
As a reminder, I was off by around 1% in 2020.
Carp map:
Actual result:
They call me Nate Platinum.
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I see great
minds think 
alike
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Please clap
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Slow and steady boys
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im literally screaming, I honestly asked myself when did I post this since you used turt
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i just replied to this comment instead of to the thread and immediately deleted it.
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Unironically my prediction. But one blue state throwin in just so all the libs can move there.
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That would've been what i did too
I made this
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This but unironically
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!khive new
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This doesn't look unreasonable to me. I was over at my dads house today helping with some household chores. He lives in a very rural area of a very red state. At the end of the work we went to one of the nearby country bars. It's the kind of place that farmers, truckers, legit cowboy boot wearers and the working class go to unwind with a cold one.
Vice President Harris was on the TV and the local gun store owner said to his auto mechanic (friends since high school),
"You know what? She ain't so bad. The economy is recovering, nobody's rioting, and we're standing up on the world stage again. Can't believe I'm saying this but Ol' Oakland Kam's got my vote this year."
I looked around and all I saw were heads nodding in agreement. I heard a few calls of "Yes sir" and "Darn Straight" from the men around me. Even saw the lonely ball cap wearing farmer in the corner raise his drink with a nod.
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!dixie !bumpkins
If one thing rurals are known for it's loving
black 
Californian politicians
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What can I say? Even the folks from rural areas are tired of the orange criminal. Plus Kammy is from rural Oakland so many rural folks can relate to her.
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Look it's not the crazy
shit that coastals think 
it is but it sure doesn't help her chances at the ballot box in the rural 
south 
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Her being from the bay area is probably her worst trait for winning southern states and thats the tea, sis
Shes unrelatable to the average voter but go off i guess
If she was in literally any shape or form a self made woman shed have more than zero percent, and But shes not shes a bay area whore but go off
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Rural America will absolutely roll to the polls for Kamala. Let's fricking goooooooooooooooo
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Same. We had a straw poll at the VFW Hall. It's in a semi-rural County that went over 80% to Trump in 2020.
The dual Bay Area ticket of Harris/Newsome won in a landslide. The most commonly-cited reason was the Homeless Gap. We have virtually no homeless people and the Bay Area has them camping in public parks by the hundreds. They're obviously doing something right out there.
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Pizza cope edition.
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!burgers
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Why though
Edit: awww it's a flag
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USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA USA
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my grandson liked yowies until i beat it out of him
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I did shades
anyways, I think 
it's more fun that way.
I don't see the Dem nominee (Kamala or otherwise) being able to pull Wisconsin, Maine or Michigan. Idk about Minnesota. Over all I predict
similar issues to Hillary's 2016 for said states.
From what I've seen Ohio has been leaning a little
more left so I marked it as a likely safe.
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Minnesota will never go red
Look at Reagan 2
It is the land of the lost.
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Yeah but Mondale was from MN
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Have you met someone that grew up in Minnesota? I swear they are more Canadian than American. Different accent and attitudes to other Americans I've met.
Putting the
in 
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That is a very good point
I can't wait to see how
@LightlySaltedBussy makes his map. We've been doing this every election 
cycle since we got together :marseyfoxxylove:
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He's turtle ๐ข pilled aka TEAM JEB!
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literally, Another good metric is to look at the power and capacity of the political parties within the states over the last 4 years and if theyve improved or not
Or not for polling showcasing Michigan basically moving to the Trump side I would give it to Kamala Harris out right because of how bad the GOP has done and its EVERYTHING
But in Minnesota in the last 4 years the GOP has shown Jack s***
Truly the land of the lost
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I don't look at anything I just trust my GUT
Off by SUB ONE PERCENT in 2020
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Queen Kamala will carry the Blue Wall in November. Watch this go there in 105 days.
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Ok buddy
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Minnesota going red first time since 1972, and Ambitious
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I confused it with Michigan and expect their voters to do the same this November.
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https://www.270towin.com/maps/3mGZY
As of now I would call this optimistic for Dems. I think it will be a month and a VP pick until we know if Kamala will actually move the needle.
She pretty much needs to win GA and PA to have a chance.
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She will win both!
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This was the dramaphilic 269-269 electoral college map from 2020 and it's plausible as the actual election map this year. This matches state House delegations except for NC (split), MN (split but will go blue in the election), and AK (which is blue but has 1 house seat).
The 269-269 electoral maps I could come up with have silly outcomes like Wisconsin going blue but Michigan going red, would be curious if there's a plausible dramaphilic map. This is the best I could do but I don't see it as plausible.
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This one is pretty possible. Tied election, and Trump and Kamala must decide the victor by naked mud wrestling
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Cook report has moved Nevada too far for me to think we will ever get a reasonable, actual 269-269 *sips tea*
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!followers i promise this will happen
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I thought you were r-slurred until I realized what i was looking at
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!fellas let's make a map of all the states rdrama biofoids belong to
Erections will be least in those states
Here's my prediction between a convicted felon who has been unfairly given immunity and a corrupt lawyer who unfairly locked up people.
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You mispelled "Strong Black Woman who cleaned up street crime in California"
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!r-slurs
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here is the leaked real map
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I got your erection map right here
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The other day I was looking for this and couldn't remember its name so I searched for "shadow" and it didn't bring it up
Frickin BIPOC jannies fix this bs
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I think Trump has a good chance of winning, but I think it's possible for Dems to win if they hold all of the Midwest. The sunbelt is not competitive this year.
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Do you think Biden as is or Harris would have been better for the Blue shield of the Midwest plan??? I think even as dementia ridden Biden is better for holding the line in the great lakes
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I think Kamala will be an improvement in national polls and may help make the Sunbelt more competitive as the group giving Trump the edge there is young (20-30 year old) Blacks and Latinx which Kamala will do better with. However, if there is any part of the country that actually liked Biden more than Harris it is probably the Midwest, so Harris may actually do worse than Biden in the Midwest (*possible exception for Michigan which has the highest Arab and Muslim population, and who are traditional Democrats but are angry about the Gaza war, Harris has always been a little more pro-Palestinian than Biden and that may help her there). So Harris may be better in the popular vote, but actually worse for the electoral college.
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Here's my map
It's a peepee
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If Arizona goes blue due to abortion so does Nebraska 2 for the same reason, and Otherwise great map
Do you have opinions as to why Trumps polling is currently better in Michigan than Wisconsin and why you decided to do the reverse of that??? I know historically Wisconsin has been more red
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Whitmer will carry Michigan for the dems somehow. May be cope cause I want the dems to win.
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270-269 would be the most dramapilled outcome for either side. There will be gay ops galore to get just one of the 270 electors to go rogue and switch sides or vote for a third party and throw the entire process into disarray at the eleventh hour. At which point it goes to the House (who would promptly instate Trump).
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Aren't you a G*rm?
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Yeah.
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I can see 1 or two more states going either way, I dont see it being far off from this
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I think Arizona might go blue but otherwise this is my map
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Yeah people underestimate how much trump has lost the old vote, and Especially in Arizona where the ghost of the McCains shall haunt the GOP for a generation
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Hi
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hiiiiiiiiii
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https://www.270towin.com/maps/LKvmA.png
help us RFK ur our only hope
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Blue AZ and NM with the border disaster? Really?
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I'm treating it as the same way I viewed 2020 and the 2022 midterms - there are enough people that have so much disdain for Trump and his supporters that they'll ignore every other calamity. I think it's going to be close just because it's Trump.
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ok so Ghost of McCain has escaped from heck
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I like the nailbiter map. I'm already looking forward to having a big election night party, smoking a bunch of ribs and a chicken and eating meats while consuming copious hard liquor and cackling maniacally
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If Jeb! doesn't win, I'm moving to Canada and voting for Jeb! over there instead
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seems reasonable
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Thanks it was hard.
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The base state of the map they give is interesting since of the undecided states Trump would need only PA to win. I do feel hesitant about marking GA leaning Republican because of what happened in 2020.
Anyways, here's mine. I'm willing to bet AZ will go red because of the border crisis, though I acknowledge that abortion could flip that. Besides betting that 2020 was ultimately an anomaly for GA I really have no idea how the rust belt will vote. As long as AZ and GA flip back to red Trump only needs one of PA, WI, or MI to win.
A more interesting thing to try and predict would be the shakeup in Congress. Allegedly the final straw that forced Joe out was that internal polling suggested they were going to get killed on the downballot if they kept him. Now that he's out I feel like neither house will budge much. GOP keeps the House, Dems keep the Senate and nothing happens for four more years.
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Georgia will be Blue, from Savannah to Calhoun
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How red do you think PA is?
I've been pretty surprised that most people are low key about the election this year.
Follower of Christ
Tech lover, IT Admin, heckin pupper lover and occasionally troll. I hold back feelings or opinions, right or wrong because I dislike conflict.
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I think after 4 years of absurd pricing for everything and unbuyable homes, the actual silent majority of grillers who don't care about politics is going to vote to make it stop. PA is grillchads at heart even with the goofy billboards and signs on houses.
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That's literally what my mom said. She's voting Trump because "she has to" for a better economy.
Follower of Christ
Tech lover, IT Admin, heckin pupper lover and occasionally troll. I hold back feelings or opinions, right or wrong because I dislike conflict.
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There's really no way around it unless I've suddenly become very poor at judging collective human character. Or something drastic changes between now and November. Most people have political stances that they're firm in, but ultimately most people just want to live their lives and not think about any of it aside from the passing familiarity with current events necessary to engage with society as a whole. These prices are insane, the interest rates have completely devastated the ability to buy a house or new vehicle, every aspect of day to day life is in shambles relative to where it should be and where it usually is. Every excuse in the world has been tried - covid, putin's price hike, "the economy is good actually, don't believe your lying eyes" - and while headlines and the Extremely Online will insist that these things are true and cite things to back it up, this has no relevance to normal people.
Everything is fucked for the normals and Kamala has been second in command for the four years of fuckening. Conversely, everything was quite good during orange man's reign. Pet fringe issues (LGBT nonsense, unions, Ukraine, marijuana, etc.) will not play a part in the overwhelming majority of the electorate's choice in a few months when mainline shit is so bad.
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not reading your substack
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Cook report has PA as a toss us right now, and Given literally all other factors I give toss ups to who i think will be the winner
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Yeah I could see it being a toss up for sure.
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You forgot to account for the fact that there's no way the entrenched establishment is going to allow another Trump victory, so they'll just cheat.
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There's legal betting sites rn go make that bag
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Isn't it illegal in the U.S.?
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The location taking bets matters not where you get. That's why online sports betting is legal in illegal states
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lol okay nice bait
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??? I'm dead serious lol
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I predict that Democrats will win all 53 states with 400 million votes!
#VoteBlueNoMatterWho
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oh, it would be sick if we could build them and then create a diff of how it plays out, then maybe do a betting thread where the closest to the pin is the winner?!
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Maine district 2 goes to RFK. Calling it.
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I mean, it doesn't matter which wing you cuck for, the map is the same pretty much. Team blue sees a blue Ohio and Pennsylvania, team red sees them red. It's not like California and New York are going to turn red or Texas and Florida are going to turn blue or anything crazy
Putting the
in 
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I think you're forgetting about a Mister Bernie Sanders!
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Elder Lich Bernie never gonna get his shot.
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tbh I'm somewhat doubtful of Trump's ability to win in PA unless there's just a huge decrease in voter turn out for Kamala. The Lehigh Valley has been growing due to a ton of low skill warehouse/distribution jobs. Unfortunately, a lot of blacks have been moving up from down south for these positions and the porkchops in allentown have continued to multiply.
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Cook report shows it as toss up, and Historically half of tossups have gone to each side
comfy on their data trump needs to win one of three Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, and Biden must hold literally all three, and Should be interesting and its EVERYTHING
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!slots10000
Snapshots:
https://www.270towin.com/:
ghostarchive.org
archive.org
archive.ph (click to archive)
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Somethings going on... I don't know what
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I don't think they're getting Arizona tbh. Everything else looks fine as things stand.
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