Prediction markets made up of idiot rationalist types displayed an idiot rationalist belief that the country would make the suicidal mistake of putting a 78 year old man in power again.
How do you think the Puerto Rico joke will affect the election?
greyenlightenment investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ... dsfewr 3d ago
Judging by the massive surge in DJT stock this morning, or prediction markets, not at all.
So a bunch of Trump people have a party and they go home and they put their feelings into a market action and someone says "look, there's market action, that must mean we're winning."
It's a circular process, a bubble like this.
But people are starting to realize: the prediction markets take the existing available information, and then add feelings about the election from men who are well known to be inclined to emotional thinking.
And $DJT continues to lose money as people get out. Peak $DJT was mid-October, since then it's just a slow, steady decline, which has continued today.
Donald J Trump is Dead in the Water.
The market knows it.
The polls say it's 50/50. The feelings markets say Trump will win. The real market is dumping the garbage stock. Between the feelings market and the real market, I trust the real market.
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Like LMAO does even a single foid use polymarket? No, of course not.
Yet many foids will vote. 
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bets on other people's votes are not votes.
people who risk money betting on an election outcome (which will include ~50% votes by foids) understand this fact.
you don't.
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t.
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this is priced in r-slur
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it's rational it just has to be because the word 'market' is involved
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What do you think the actual probability is? Why not bet and make a bunch of money?
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t.
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