https://x.com/i/events/1484221402358358016
2yr ago
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#37528
Oh no guys!!!! Le heckin science clock say the worldarino is gonna do the big death!!!! 
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In a hundred years, at the point where it might start to matter at all, our tech will be so unbelievably advanced that it might as well be magic. Think about the tech a hundred years ago compared to today. It doesn't matter.
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thermodynamics isn't magic, and isn't going to be solved by handwaving it away with "magic". might as well just state you're too r-slurred to understand the problem cause you're expecting "magic" to solve it.
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Imagine trying to explain a cell phone to someone in the 1920's. In a hundred years we will have cowtools beyond your imagination, and we already have the cowtools to survive even the most outlandish climate doomsday theories.
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i could do that pretty easily actually
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Not even people in the modern age actually understand how they work
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Tell me you're r-slurred without telling me you're r-slurred.
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Oh yeah dude I'm sure you understand every piece of tech that goes into a modern cellphone lmao
Even experts in the field have limited scopes to their knowledge. Not many people could instruct someone on how to build a cellphone from the ground up, possibly none.
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Being able to construct something and fundamentally understanding it are very different things. I understand how a graphite pencil works fundamentally but I could not make one on my own.
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A graphite pencil is incredibly different from a cellphone. I guarantee you do not even understand the basics of how they work. If someone gave you graphite, a basic mineral, you could make a graphite pencil. If you were given all of the materials for a cellphone and the ability to shape them how you wanted you still could not make a cell phone.
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it's a small telephone that you can carry around and works without being connected to a wire.
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This is the second time someone has said this exact same r-slurred shit
BEING A PHONE IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THE MAIN FUNCTION OF MODERN SMART PHONES DUMBASS
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Its a small phone that lets you send r-slurred comments such as the one i am responding to and have everyone laugh and ridicule you.
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Tell me you're a reeetard without explicitly saying "I'm a fricking reeetard."
A phone, as people in 1920 understood it, doesn't -- within seconds of receiving that task -- tell you the fastest land route from Istanbul to Paris, taking into account current traffic jams and construction sites. That's one of thousands of examples of what smartphones do routinely.
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Right?
"It's a tiny phone that works off of radio and a battery"
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Being a "phone" isn't even the primary function of the modern cell phone
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The only part of a snartphone that is fundamentally new to someone from the 20s is computerisation and the internet.
A computer is fairly easy to explain on a basic level. Its a complicated machine using lots of very small switches to turn an input into an output. The rest is minaturisation and adding more and more little switches, the scale of which is literally the only hard thing to imagine.
The internet is also fsirly easy to explain fundamentally. Its a telegraphy network with the telegraphist replaced with a computer. The scale and impact it has on our lifes is the mind-blowing part, the actual "physical" aspect is just a new iteration and improvement of existing technology.
Truly revolutionary and mind-blowing to people were the discovery and utilisation of the EM spectrum, or radiation, electricity, relativity, the atomic model, the end of the heliocentric/geocentric models, or that the earth is round.
Its the difference between engineering revolutions, and "theoretical" science revolutions that fundamentally change our understanding of the universe, not just the way we interact with it.
Frick you longpost
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good point.
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I don't have enough spoons to read this shit
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fricking reeetard
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imagine trying to explain to them how to fix nitrogen for fertilizer. oh wait, that's right, the Haber process was invented in 1909 and we've haven't come up with anything better cause technology still isn't magic.
worst case we trigger venus (which is the inevitable end state of earth anyways, the question is only a matter of when). we literally don't have the cowtools to survive that.
it hurts talking to r-slurs.
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Youre right that we wouldnt survive that, but it doesnt matter cause that will never happen until the sun swallows us.
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it's gunna happen long before the sun swallows us buddy.
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That was more a metaphor for 'in millions of years'.
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naturally, sure.
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If worst came to worst with major resources we could probably build a generational ship right now. Easy in 50 years.
Not that it matters because we are talking about a slight change in temperature and a few extra storms every year by any reasonable prediction.
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you realize that self-sustaining biosphere experiments have so far failed.
delaying climate change doens't require any serious unknowns, but ya major resources would be needed. sooner than later for it to be meaningful.
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The only time it's been meaningfully tried with humans was 25 years ago, but you can easily make one in a jar. The collective scientific minds of the modern world could easily figure it out.
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sure man, keep betting on magical unknowns instead of solving knowns, that's surely the true path to sustainability. go drink you soylent.
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I'm not betting on unknowns lmao the entire idea of needing a generational ship is unbelievably removed from reality. I'm just saying that we could probably do it. What I know is that we have AC and heaters so climate change is nbd.
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look at microsd cards, compared to hard drives 40 years ago.
A piece of plastic the size of your pinkie nail, storing over 8,000,000,000,000 individual 1s and 0s, practically waterproof, and costs less than a tank of gas
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I have a 1 tb micro SD in my phone with like 500k books in it. I'm not even sure a library with 500k books even existed 40 years ago.
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You are working under the assumption that tech is exponential. Until now it seems to be, but we are reaching the limits on how small we can make transistors, and that matters for computing power. We already hit the wall in frequency, around 5GHz is where it is, a Pentium 4 was capable of that. So we added more cores, and now that is still ongoing... But then were can we go next? where is also a limit of how much heat you can extract from a unit of area...
I think progress will slow down. We are already using quantum mechanics insights in processor design. And physics seems to be stuck. (I don't have a view into the latest developments, but I don't think the new 'quantum mechanics' or 'general relativity' is around the corner.)
Maybe I'm just a luddite, and will be proven wrong by the power unleashed of the networking of all programs and computing power. As well as the efficiency gains as technology matures. But I don't see any major breakthroughs happen.
Maybe quantum computing. If they can figure that out, then we have another paradigm shift on our hands.
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This is a really long way of saying you don't frick.
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Software. Most is terribly written and pisses away cpu cycles and eats ram for no good reason
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That's what they thought when they were right around the corner.
It's mostly here based on what quantum computing researchers I know say.
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Your argument begins with
That is just about the worst foundation I have ever seen. More people + more tech = more advancement. This isn't complicated. People said the same thing a hundred years ago, and a thousand years ago.
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There's a TON of evidence that factor production has slowed down drastically and the growth we are seeing is concentrated only in a couple areas instead of broadly. If you take someone from 100 years ago to today they would recognize almost every major invention we have except for things like the internet. We have not had any major breakthroughs on the scale of electricity or the internal combustion engine.
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Well, the internet is on the scale of those things and removing it is a bit disingenuous because it was only 20 years ago. I would say modern smart phones have changed the world just as much too.
Idk admittedly I am not a nerd but I've just seen how things have changed over my relatively short life and it seems insane with no signs of stopping. As far as I am aware better ai and quantum computing are right around the corner and those should be huge.
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They are definitely not on the same scale. People stand today in a subway holding their black mirror and think, "wow I'm in the future" not realizing the subway they're standing in was built 50 years ago and barely works.
My whole point is that we have growth only in one narrow area and almost no where else. Biotech has some exciting stuff going on, but it's an overregulated sector that is unlikely to advance as quickly as computing has.
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Honestly I'm a just a simple fisherman, which is a trade that has only really evolved with the introduction of better gps in the last few decades. Maybe you are right. I don't think so, but maybe.
On one hand that is tedpilled and cool and I'm still not worried about climate change but on the other I am actually pretty hype for virtual living and am hopeful that medicine will come along far enough in my life to make me functionally immortal. Guess we will see.
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Things are still progressing, but the pace is slowing. The last 200 years may end up a fluke in human history. We had thousands and thousands of years where people used animals for propulsion and burned wood. From one civilization to another things improved but not in the dramatic way we've seen since the Enlightenment and VR may end up being a distraction that dooms us to stagnation.
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Oh true VR would probably be the death of all progress. Nobody is going to work on science when they can just live in a perfect virtual world. Most people see that as a bad thing but for me that is achieving utopia.
What we have right now is nowhere near true VR though.
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crypto will save us, dont worry bro
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What about new architectures like RISC-V or just bringing back two socket mobos
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Lol
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"lol"? "Lol"?! What the frick does that add to the conversation? If you don't have something to say be silent
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Holy shit I recognize you now, you are that gambling scam artist. Go frick (((yourself))), you will burn in heck. I'm adding you to my enemy list.
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Also I never scammed anyone but if I did and you fell for it it would be your own fault.
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All lotteries are scams
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TRUST THE HECKIN SCIENCERINO
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I distrust and hate scientists in general but that doesn't mean I'm going to pretend we aren't advancing as a species.
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