Unironic posting: I think China might still end up dominating

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202206/1269087.shtml - mongolia natural gas storage facility is live now.

https://www.voanews.com/a/amid-covid-battle-china-pledges-to-bolster-economies-of-4-nations-including-russia/6632724.html - China states it will bolster the economies of India, Russia, Brazil, and South Africa.

https://www.russia-briefing.com/news/russia-mongolia-trade-up-30-looking-to-expand.html/ - Russia Mongolia trade up 30% in 2021

The fact remains that for China to dominate it's primary needs are a poorer sub group to take care of it's elderly population, access to more women for marriages, and access to a large deposit of raw resources.

Of these China has enough poor people who can be forced to take care of the old + is now rich enough that it can import poor people from abroad to take care of it's people.

In case of access to more women China has access to Mongolian and Russian populations of Women now. As China keeps getting richer they can pretty much entice women from these regions to marry them due to their wealth.

Large deposit of raw resources. East Russia and SIberia.

In addition is the fact that the European economy after coming into conflict with Russia and sanctioning it will fall into stagnation for another decade due to complete dependency on Russia for oil supplies earlier. Germany is hit pretty hard by it and as inflation rises in central Europe all countries suffer due to being pegged to the Euro. Russia is still very likely to also be worse off than it was before. Simply due to the number of soldiers it loses in the ongoing war.

With Europe stagnant and stuck in place and Russia it's equivalent counterpart, there remains the issue of the US and China. Of these the US has not gained anything new meanwhile China has gained an entire resource market to itself at a discounted price in Russia.

On top of this there is far more political instability in the US than there is in China.

If the only thing you are betting on is that China will grow old first, then you are going to likely lose control. China already dominates it's region to it's North. Creating a territory large enough to rule the world.

China + Russia + Mongolia Area = 28.621 Sq. Km ( Larger than the entirely of North America)

That's a big enough territory to provide all the required resource needs of the people even if they were to cut themselves off from the world.

There is the additional problem that Russia, Mongolia, and China move in sync with each other far more greatly than the western nations currently do when it comes to global politics. Which means that you are fighting against a more cohesive political force who is also possessing a higher population and larger land area. The only metrics they are losing out on are a far faster aging population and lower individual wealth.

Now the first is the biggest threat, but by the time it's impact actually damages the East they are in a position to possibly solve the problem altogether by then. China already has a robot density of 246 per 10,000 workers in 2020. That's 2.46% of the workforce that it has already accounted for. China's population by fastest estimates is expected to halve by as soon as 2050. (https://futurism.com/the-byte/china-population-half-30-years). Which means they ought to preferably at least have a robot density of 5,000 per 10,000 workers to be able to get net positive constant growth in the next thirty years. Currently their robot density grows by around 15-20% every year, easily more than enough to cover the necessary needs in the next 30 years.

Now that the population collapse risk has been debunked, we move on to the individual wealth issue. Here you must realize one thing, for a nation to have power on the global stage, individual citizen wealth and income is not half as important as the total income/ GDP of the nation as a whole. In this sphere there is a high chance China will cross the US as it is.

The biggest issue in current year is that China is already set deep enough within the supply chain that it is impossible to completely collapse it, the only thing that can be done is to slow down it's growth, maybe even try to push to stagnate it. However, as of now the US is only capable of doing so by shooting itself in the foot as most of it's factories and construction work is outsourced. It would take at least a decade for the US to fully wrap up the China outsourcing experiment and shift all production to other regions of the world.

Even if such an event were to transpire, China would still have a market in the developing world that is constantly vying for more resources. On top of that China has a large enough internal market to keep growing for decades to come if it chose to focus only internally. China still has alot to catch up to which makes the journey have a blueprint it can follow. The US has no such luxury. This is primarily due to the fact that the US has already reached the cutting edge in terms of technologies developed, the only time that the US progresses is when it goes out of it's way to create something new to add to it's GDP.

As of now that something new is Space Tech, but it would still be decades if not a century before the Space industry is finally fully booming.

The best advantage that the US has is that it can create new allies by focusing on individual nations and helping them speedrun development on the global stage as it did with the Asian tiger economies.

However, turning Vietnam into a new strong ally and turning the middle east western, will that be enough to balance out a China that is now combing it's might with Russia and Mongolia in a very well integrated manner?

It is now impossible to completely collapse Russia. The only thing that can be done is to leave it moderately poor for the decades to come, but even in such a state it continues to supply and provide for the Chinese people.

Europe is going to likely suffer a lost decade this time. No helping it. All of it's economic plans destabilized the moment it went into conflict with Russia.

The US while stable has shown zero space to grow any further this decade, instead falling into internal turmoil as inflation keeps hitting and the political shitshows become worse over time.

There might be a genuine risk that there won't be a multipolar world, just a duo polar one with China as one axis, and the US as the other.

Thoughts?