Leaf government publishes report about much life will suck here in 15 years

Social mobility lies at the heart of the Canadian project. Many people in Canada assume that 'following the rules' and 'doing the right things' will lead to a better life. Anyone can get an education, work hard, buy property, and climb the social and economic ladder. This is an informal but powerful promise.

In 2040, upward social mobility is almost unheard of in Canada. Hardly anyone believes that they can build a better life for themselves, or their children, through their own efforts. However, many worry about sliding down the social order. This scenario identifies 6 main ways the world has changed since 2024:

2.1 Post-secondary education

In 2040, pursuing post-secondary education (PSE) is no longer considered a reliable path to social mobility. Tuition and housing costs exclude all but the wealthy. Relatively long program timelines mean significant opportunity costs. Inflexible programs cannot keep up with constantly evolving skills demands in the job market. Fewer young people choose PSE; those who do, see it less as a path to a successful career than a way to reinforce their membership in the 'elite'.

I'd argue this is something you see today. People don't go to college for more money (if they did fewer would choose degrees with such dogshit ROI) instead they do it because they've been told it's what good and proper adults do

2.2 Housing

In 2040, owning a home is not a realistic goal for many. Most new homeowners get help from family members. Some take out intergenerational mortgages and have several generations of family living togetherFootnote 2. Others enter alternative household mortgages with friends. A growing percentage of homeowners also own rental properties. They oppose policies to expand the housing supply or freeze rents. Inequality between those who rent and those who own has become a key driver of social, economic, and political conflict.

Fun fact, my parents home is now worth 7 times what my father paid for it (via a loan from family) 30 years ago. I could never even rent the place much less own it.

2.3 Intergenerational wealth

In 2040, people see inheritance as the only reliable way to get ahead. Society increasingly resembles an aristocracy. Wealth and status pass down the generations. Family background – especially owning property – divides the 'haves' from the 'have-nots'.

Every major boon I've had in life has come via an inheritance

2.4 Social siloing

In 2040, people rarely mix with others of different socio-economic status. Algorithmic dating apps filter by class. Gated metaverses, like real life, offer few opportunities to meet people from different backgrounds. It is hard to move up in the world by making social connections that could lead to long term romantic relationships, job opportunities, or business partnerships. Social relations no longer offer pathways to connections or opportunities that enable upward mobility.

I actively avoid the university educated!

2.5 Aspirations and expectations

In 2040, aspirations for social mobility among youth are at odds with expectations of immobility. Advertising and marketing discourses continue to drive the desire to climb the social ladder, but economic realities leave most with limited expectations of success. Cognitive dissonance between what youth are programed to want and what they know they can expect, leads many to frustration and apathy. Only a few maintain a strong drive to innovate and succeed in traditional terms.

Already the case with lots of young people.

2.6 Artificial Intelligence

In 2040, the value of human labour has shrunk because of Artificial Intelligence (AI)Footnote 3. AI is widespread and can do many things well. In creative to knowledge fields, less work is available. Most people rely on gig work and side hustles to meet their basic needsFootnote 4. It is hard for workers to save enough to start a business. People use AI assistants for many day-to-day tasks. They make it easier to organize work and earn money. However, the best AI assistants are expensive. This reinforces structural inequalities.

Lol. AI should never be expensive. The shit I can run on 8 year old consumer grade hardware does a lot of what you need an AI assistant to do

Skipping a bunch because it's boring

3.4 People might find alternative ways to meet their basic needs

Housing, food, childcare, and healthcare co-operatives may become more common. This could ease burdens on social services but also challenge market-based businesses

Forms of person-to-person exchange of goods and services could become even more popular, reducing tax revenues and consumer safety

People may start to hunt, fish, and forage on public lands and waterways without reference to regulations. Small-scale agriculture could increase

Governments may come to seem irrelevant if they cannot enforce basic regulations or if people increasingly rely on grass-roots solutions to meeting basic needs

!bumpkins !whitetrash Does this not just sound like rural life today?