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ogsambone gen/der :marseyraging::marseycope::marseytroublemaker::marseyboomer::marseydead::marseywave2:  2yr ago (nypost.com) 212 thread views #110289

Russia (Possibly) planning nuke test near Ukraine border. The city council of Kyiv says it is providing evacuation centers with potassium iodine pills in preparation for a possible nuclear strike on the capital.

https://nypost.com/2022/10/04/russia-planning-nuke-test-near-ukraine-border-report

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-treaties-government-and-politics-9c1297eb1d1557a91652aa64a0fbdcad

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I'm thinking there is a 50/50 chance of some type of nuclear weapon being, but I'm a stupid, moron, uninformed chud who has no idea what they're talking about :marseyspecial:

What do people with an actual informed opinion—who aren't doom-posting, nervous Nellies :marseysmug2:—think?

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:#marseyreading:

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2022/09/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-launched-in-combat-by-the-end-of-2023.html

![](/images/16649199340829551.webp)

This prediction is from Manifold Markets. Metaculus gives similar odds to a similar question. These are serious predictions.

In a 2019 post I pointed out that expert surveys (not markets) suggested the annualized probability of a nuclear war was on the order of ~1%–and I thought that was worryingly high. We are now at ten times that level. This is very, very bad.

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:marseysweating:

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Yeah, it's pretty serious. Glad I don't live anywhere near that shithole! :marseywholesome:

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:#marseysal:

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:marseynotes: We...all...die...in...2..weeks

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I don’t think anyone really knows unless they are in the meetings with putin. Apparently he’s been directing troop movements himself and is starting to lose it(though this could easily be propaganda). This could also be the start to a false flag, it wouldn’t be the first time.

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Very true. I honestly don't really believe anything I hear about either side because it could be utter bullshit propaganda

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I'm a :marseygigaretard: but I figure if he was going to do it he woule have done it already. Why the buildup?

Definitely smells like media ramping up the ukie rhetoric now that it's stale. Very much iraq WMD vibes

:marseymacarthur:

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