A bunch of things happened this month. Here is the list of links

Russia loses last black sea missile ship. - https://www.kyivpost.com/post/34951

Israel threatens to take Lebanon to the stone age. ( I thought they were already there ) - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/06/27/israel-threatens-to-take-lebanon-back-to-the-stone-age/

Russia sends new citizens to dig trenches. - https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2024/06/27/over-10000-newly-naturalised-russian-citizens-sent-to-dig-trenches-in-ukraine-en-news

North Korea ready to send troops to Ukraine. - https://www.kyivpost.com/post/34893

Chinese elite salaries capped. - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-27/china-s-financial-elite-face-400-000-pay-caps-bonus-clawbacks

Israel cucks the Ultraorthodox jews. Time for them to serve in the military. - https://apnews.com/article/israel-politics-ruling-military-service-orthodox-e2a8359bcea1bd833f71845ee6af780d

China harassing Norway. - https://www.yahoo.com/news/chinese-military-harassed-dutch-warship-070344083.html

My take based on the pattern of events unfolding around the world.

Russia is doing badly in the war. There is no scenario where Russia is winning and also willing to have North Korea send in troops to help it in the war.

The Chinese elite salary cap will bite China in the butt as such systems only work if these elite have no other better opportunities to move to abroad. China is making decisions that force itself to be stuck in the middle income trap. Capitalistic levels of economic growth require money to move freely. The Chinese CCP is disconnected from how to keep growing the nation state at a relentless rate and are going to have their own ideology get in the way of future growth. 400,000 USD pay cap is too low. You generally want to go after billionaires then the millionaires then below that range.

Long run impact:

Russia and China are both on the losing end this decade if both of them are making these kinds of decisions to run their nation states and wars. This leaves India as the next global player.