https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_supercomputing#Petascale_computing_in_the_21st_century
Supercomputer from 2004 (IBM Blue) could perform at 70.720 Tflops.
Geforce RTX 4090 can perform at 82.58 tflops of processing power.
Geforce RTX 4090 was released in 2022.
In 18 years we got tech that would take an entire room or two to fit it in and miniaturized it to fit within a desktop pc.
What we call the cutting edge in computing today should be accessible to your kid as a consumer level product by the time he or she is 18 years old.
The human genome project, a project meant to get a complete sequence of the human genome, cost 2.7 billion dollars to complete. Today, human genome mapping costs are as low as 600 dollars in some cases.
https://3billion.io/blog/whole-genome-sequencing-price-and-trends-2024
https://biology.mit.edu/the-human-genome-project-turns-20-heres-how-it-altered-the-world/
In 21 years the price of genome sequencing for humans went down 4.5 million times.
Another case of the price of tech falling to consumer grade prices within one generation since the first version.
It puts into perspective exactly how fast technology is moving from a practical standpoint rather than a theoretical one. The most expensive tech out there today is going to be what the next generation would be carrying around as a consumer product, and this trend will continue, generation after generation.
The ISS ( fist segment launched in 1998 ) cost 150 billion USD to finish development. The Tiangong space station ( by China 2022 ) meanwhile cost only about 8.5 billion USD.
A 17.64X reduction in price in a 24 year timespan.
Conclusion:
The cost is going down and quality of tech products is going up 10-20X every generation. With the current scale of ongoing research into lab grown food, we might even expect a decline in the prices of food products over time, or at least an increase in their quality over time. The quality of consumer goods available to humans is increasing by a wide margin every generation. The only issue currently lies in solving continental scale and planet scale problems such as global warming, clean water access, global food supply chains, etc. With the population growth rate going down while at the same time tech advancement rates keep stable or accelerate, it is pretty much guaranteed that your children will have a higher quality of life than you as long as you are not poor or in the wrong place on the planet.
We are currently moving at rates where we should be able to solve all our problems faster than we create new problems. A continual improvement in quality of life.
The slowdown is most likely coming from two points:
1. If it ain't broke don't fix it attitude, where humans won't solve a problem until it is effecting too many people.
2. People so used to doubling or tripling of specs in the technological sphere that they are no longer focused enough on improving the efficiency of the software they build on top of the hardware.
We are two industrial revolutions away from living in a post scarcity everybody is provided for society.
Stay strong, just survive the next 40 years and it will all work out.
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!codecels this means you. Doubly you webshitters and pythoncels.
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!codecels hold the line! They can try to make faster hardware, but we can always add more npm packages.
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I use a npm app for my AI LLMs and it's r-slurred. It takes literal minutes to start. I'm rewriting it in java bit by bit using the time I wait for it to boot
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Still faster
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Doing it by fricking hand would be even faster still
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write it in rust transphobe
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I've taken to making all my algorithm O(n^3) just to try and keep up.
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Add multiple versions of the same library of you need to!
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I write code to get paid not to neurodivergentally optimize performance unless management actually cares about it
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Webdev detected
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Webdevs should be banned from using JavaScript in their websites until they prove they can use it responsibly
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Na dude shit still costs money and time, i try to be as efficient as possible
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Not my fault you don't upgrade every 6 months
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PyTorch is not that bad.
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I have to compile every version I install myself because it doesn't support my gpu out of the box
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Sounds like you should buy a better GPU
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frick u and ur NVIDIA stock
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!fosstards why does nvidia hate freedom
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Times are a changing
https://www.phoronix.com/news/NVIDIA-560.28.03-Beta-Linux
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Gpu's are the devils hardware
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This pizzamisia will not stand. !friendsofpizzashill
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keep yourself safe now
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keep yourself safe
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My job is to make shit 1% faster so big companies give us more money.
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I don't triple the specs, I triple the requirements.
Then I halve the specs
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b-b-but I am a pythoncel.
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Learn D
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What's D?
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C++ if C++ wasn't aids.
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BASTE
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GPUs are not equivalent to CPUs in performance. the high flops are only achievable for certain operations. branching is slow to impossible.
Solvers for boolean satisfiability problems are very useful in a wide range of applications and also very difficult to implement on GPUs. The best one I know (not necessarily the best one there is) is https://www.win.tue.nl/~awijs/articles/parafrost_gpu.pdf --- a large part of that still has to be done on CPU, only certain parts can be done by the GPU. One of those parts is 50x faster on GPU than on CPU, but the overall algorithm is only about 2x faster than a state of the art CPU-only solver.
Even on CPUs the speedup compared to older CPUs is not the same for all problems. E.g. AVX-512 instructions perform an operation on eight 32bit numbers simultaneously, yielding an 8x speedup compared to sequential execution, and many common algorithms can take advantage of that. But for problems where that isn't possible a state-of-the-art CPU seems 8x slower than what you would expect when comparing its performance to a CPU from 2004 on e.g. linear algebra problems.
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None of these words are in the Bible
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an omnipotent, omniscient, and benevolent god would have mentioned them. QED
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While this is largely true, to my knowledge the IBM Blue Gene supercomputer also had massively wide execution units in order to achieve those TFlop numbers, so they weren't like regular desktop/server CPUs of its time. The gigabit interconnect bandwidth between nodes probably didn't do it any favors either.
A combination of a pair of 96 core Genoa-X's, 12 TiB of RAM, and a couple 4090's would probably compare quite favorably for many, many workloads given equivalent amount of time spent optimizing the code for the target hardware.
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For sure.
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Supercomputers were always for vectorial application
Boolean satisfiability can easily be solved by gpu, just bruteforce it.
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but then you don't get the x10000 (?) speedup over a 2004 consumer PC.
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So what year supercomputer is the modern day computer as good as?
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I don't know honestly. It depends on the type of problem. For dense linear algebra your 2004 estimate is pretty accurate.
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!neolibs W
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Except the cutting edge in computing isn't just a faster processor. It's quantum computing.
Trust that the glowies are going to keep the lid on that for as long as they can.
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Why is Marsey Freeman wearing pearls
And with an arm growing out of her back lol
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Early Marsey prototype.
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AFAIK we're still quite far away from actual quantum computers (that can run shor's algorithm), not to mention ones of useful size. Quantum error correction is necessary and expensive. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Threshold_theorem
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I don't know how complete they are, but one of my
friends who sometimes blabs a bit too much after a few drinks said they can break consumer E2EE almost instantly.
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That's due to hardware/software backdoors, private sector does most of the work for them and all they need to do is plant holes. Feds focus most of their R&D on war toys and media control these days.
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Yes they have backdoors, at least into western consumer tech, but he said cracking E2EE like it wasn't even there is one of the capabilities of the quantum computer he has access to.
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Ehhh I have a few
ppl that will say a lot of stuff with enough drinks and they usually overstate what they mean.
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The glowies literally cannot because if the US won't provide then either China or India will.
We have already seen this in the case of nukes ( North Korea ), cheap tech ( smartphones, 5G, TV ), and pharmaceuticals ( India prescription drugs )
A global network of trade with nation states still existing means that it is impossible to monopolize any tech or innovation except for the cutting edge in the starting few years of discovery.
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Sure, but it will be longer than 18 years before your kid has a quantum computer in his bedroom.
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Depends entirely on whether quantum computers provide anything relevant to consumer grade PCs.
First computer was 1945.
First personal computer was 1974.
First quantum computer was 1998.
First personal quantum computer based on previous rate should be 2027.
So you are probably right.
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It could also be a bit like electric car tech.
Technology that existed for decades, but coincidentally only went mainstream once global car sales were projected to fall for the first time ever.
If it's complicated and expensive enough to develop for consumers, there can be market forces that prevent it.
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Nah, I think its more like AI took off first so that's where all the money went. Quantum computing would get the same sort of funding once AI tech reaches maturity.
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Quantum computers are necessarily good for consumer applications.
They're very specialized.
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We are all going to make it. Nothing is fricked here, dude. This is fine.
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Skill issue
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Gigachad_brony alt?
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My writing quality isn't that shit. There are no run on sentences here.
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!nooticers thoughts?
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You'll probably get a lot of people skeptical about these technological advances continuing to happen but IDK it seems like we've generally overcome some serious barriers, I think we're up for the challenge.
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Full screenshot or fake
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AI edited image.
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Gracias
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AI edited video.
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An important bit you're missing is that the 4090's core count is about half of Blue Gene in 2004.
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fair. I am not rewriting my article however and you still have a supercomputer in your pocket.
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does anyone have experience with an external gpu setup? I have a pc with decent ram/cpu butt weak graphics. It has the hookups (thuderbolt 4) for an external gpu and if i do it itll be approx $1000 with a decent gpu. Are there any problems trying that or no?
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The bandwidth is still very limiting.
Heavily dependent on the game and how powerful your GPU is, but you can expect between 15-50% performance drop from what the GPU is able to do by in a proper system. You also get a lot more stuttering.
Considering the GPU is the most expensive component of a PC these days, it's probably cheaper to sell/move on your old one and build new one, than pay for a good GPU with performance 2 tiers lower AND pay for enclosure.
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thanks for the advice. I think i might try the external set up and if its shit ill just do tue build idea and put the gpu in that. I plan on getting a high end gpu if i can find a good deal.
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IMHO for most GPGPU tasks the limited bandwidth is not the bottleneck, or you can find a way to work around it. Don't know about gaming, but games that need fast GPUs tend to also need fast CPUs, maybe more than a typical laptop CPU.
If you're on Linux, "hotplug" (connecting the eGPU while your laptop is already running) is difficult, it's likely that you won't get it to work and will have to restart every time you want to connect your eGPU.
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thanks for ypur thoughts. my cpu is pretty good/recent generation. All the hardware on the pc good, butt the gpu. Its a laptop, so they have a weak gpu i think to save space and lower the temp. im not on linux, butt the pc restarts in <30s so thats not an issue either way.
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The restart itself is quick, but if I'm already working pn something I have a couple programs open, and 40 tabs in the web browser, I have to save/bookmark everything, close everything, and then after restart reopen everything -- some programs do it automatically, some don't. I have to restart docker containers, jupyter, reconnect to various APIs, etc... that takes a few minutes and is very annoying.
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wow, thats crazy. I look forward to the day that that is a problem for me
!slots444
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I think it's worth trying and then returning if it doesn't work.
I'm curious to see your results.
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ilyk if i go through with it
!slots222
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Very optimistic of you to assume that the ISS didn't cost so much because of contractors filling their pockets and that it wouldn't cost as much or the same today as well lol (adjusted for inflation)
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The ISS replacement is expected to cost around 12-13 billion USD last I checked.
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I don't see how these leaps and bounds in tech have inherent incentives to provide for everyone in society, which is a misguided assumption.
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They don't, but the cheaper things are the more easily accessible they become
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Do people believe this meme? Software isn't suddenly getting 100x slower because some tard decided to write a react app. Consumer applications are bottlenecked by cache misses and IO, which aren't captured by benchmarks.
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lmao, software has been getting shitter and shitter because the acceptable level of autism required to write software has gotten more and more entry level. React is already 2-3 orders of magnitude too slow for people who think about how to avoid mallocing more than a handful of times in a program.
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If that were true developers wouldn't be able to make far better looking games at the end of a playstation generation with the same hardware than at the beginning of it.
( I am assuming that the end of gen games run on the base starting of the gen hardware as well instead of just the end of gen upgraded models )
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video games are among a very small group of products where "fast" actually matters
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what you said doesn't disprove my point
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I assure you I do not subscribe to nazism/nationalism/fascism nor have I taken part in the gassing/ethnic cleansing of 6M* people within the last century …… however, if you have proof to the contrary you should report me 🤨 and unlike you I can own up to what I do — instead of hiding on sub and calling folks names.
Snapshots:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GeForce_40_series:
ghostarchive.org
archive.org
archive.ph (click to archive)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_supercomputing#Petascale_computing_in_the_21st_century:
ghostarchive.org
archive.org
archive.ph (click to archive)
https://3billion.io/blog/whole-genome-sequencing-price-and-trends-2024:
ghostarchive.org
archive.org
archive.ph (click to archive)
https://biology.mit.edu/the-human-genome-project-turns-20-heres-how-it-altered-the-world/:
ghostarchive.org
archive.org
archive.ph (click to archive)
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