https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_supercomputing#Petascale_computing_in_the_21st_century
Supercomputer from 2004 (IBM Blue) could perform at 70.720 Tflops.
Geforce RTX 4090 can perform at 82.58 tflops of processing power.
Geforce RTX 4090 was released in 2022.
In 18 years we got tech that would take an entire room or two to fit it in and miniaturized it to fit within a desktop pc.
What we call the cutting edge in computing today should be accessible to your kid as a consumer level product by the time he or she is 18 years old.
The human genome project, a project meant to get a complete sequence of the human genome, cost 2.7 billion dollars to complete. Today, human genome mapping costs are as low as 600 dollars in some cases.
https://3billion.io/blog/whole-genome-sequencing-price-and-trends-2024
https://biology.mit.edu/the-human-genome-project-turns-20-heres-how-it-altered-the-world/
In 21 years the price of genome sequencing for humans went down 4.5 million times.
Another case of the price of tech falling to consumer grade prices within one generation since the first version.
It puts into perspective exactly how fast technology is moving from a practical standpoint rather than a theoretical one. The most expensive tech out there today is going to be what the next generation would be carrying around as a consumer product, and this trend will continue, generation after generation.
The ISS ( fist segment launched in 1998 ) cost 150 billion USD to finish development. The Tiangong space station ( by China 2022 ) meanwhile cost only about 8.5 billion USD.
A 17.64X reduction in price in a 24 year timespan.
Conclusion:
The cost is going down and quality of tech products is going up 10-20X every generation. With the current scale of ongoing research into lab grown food, we might even expect a decline in the prices of food products over time, or at least an increase in their quality over time. The quality of consumer goods available to humans is increasing by a wide margin every generation. The only issue currently lies in solving continental scale and planet scale problems such as global warming, clean water access, global food supply chains, etc. With the population growth rate going down while at the same time tech advancement rates keep stable or accelerate, it is pretty much guaranteed that your children will have a higher quality of life than you as long as you are not poor or in the wrong place on the planet.
We are currently moving at rates where we should be able to solve all our problems faster than we create new problems. A continual improvement in quality of life.
The slowdown is most likely coming from two points:
1. If it ain't broke don't fix it attitude, where humans won't solve a problem until it is effecting too many people.
2. People so used to doubling or tripling of specs in the technological sphere that they are no longer focused enough on improving the efficiency of the software they build on top of the hardware.
We are two industrial revolutions away from living in a post scarcity everybody is provided for society.
Stay strong, just survive the next 40 years and it will all work out.
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does anyone have experience with an external gpu setup? I have a pc with decent ram/cpu butt weak graphics. It has the hookups (thuderbolt 4) for an external gpu and if i do it itll be approx $1000 with a decent gpu. Are there any problems trying that or no?
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The bandwidth is still very limiting.
Heavily dependent on the game and how powerful your GPU is, but you can expect between 15-50% performance drop from what the GPU is able to do by in a proper system. You also get a lot more stuttering.
Considering the GPU is the most expensive component of a PC these days, it's probably cheaper to sell/move on your old one and build new one, than pay for a good GPU with performance 2 tiers lower AND pay for enclosure.
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thanks for the advice. I think i might try the external set up and if its shit ill just do tue build idea and put the gpu in that. I plan on getting a high end gpu if i can find a good deal.
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IMHO for most GPGPU tasks the limited bandwidth is not the bottleneck, or you can find a way to work around it. Don't know about gaming, but games that need fast GPUs tend to also need fast CPUs, maybe more than a typical laptop CPU.
If you're on Linux, "hotplug" (connecting the eGPU while your laptop is already running) is difficult, it's likely that you won't get it to work and will have to restart every time you want to connect your eGPU.
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thanks for ypur thoughts. my cpu is pretty good/recent generation. All the hardware on the pc good, butt the gpu. Its a laptop, so they have a weak gpu i think to save space and lower the temp. im not on linux, butt the pc restarts in <30s so thats not an issue either way.
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The restart itself is quick, but if I'm already working pn something I have a couple programs open, and 40 tabs in the web browser, I have to save/bookmark everything, close everything, and then after restart reopen everything -- some programs do it automatically, some don't. I have to restart docker containers, jupyter, reconnect to various APIs, etc... that takes a few minutes and is very annoying.
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wow, thats crazy. I look forward to the day that that is a problem for me
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I think it's worth trying and then returning if it doesn't work.
I'm curious to see your results.
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ilyk if i go through with it
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