EFFORTPOST The State of the Race! Who's winning? What's the issues?

Reading Rdrama, it's become pretty clear that this dump is a rightoid circlejerk that's blind to what's actually happening in America, and I want to just spread the knowledge .

The first thing to handle: Am I biased? No - I'm a European () that's neurodivergentally into American Presidential Politics, especially the Cold War era (Franklin Roosevelt to H.W Bush), and I'd wager I know more about every era then most Americans here. Not saying that to brag, it's just autism.

So the next thing to handle - the state of the race. Which Dementia Daddy is winning? It started of with Trump fricking destroying Slumbering Joseph, who has been facing declining approval ratings ever since the fall of Kabul ( America hates to see an anti-war president). This is despite the fact that America does not like Trump. This is simply a fact, Americans have never liked Trump. He didn't win the popular vote against Hillary Clinton, herself massively unpopular, or Joe Biden.

Let's compare starting approvals. Gallup gives W. Bush 57% approval at the start of his term, which skyrockets to 91% by 9/11 and ends at 28% when he leaves office. Obama starts with 68%, getting a lowest approval rating of 42%. Even Sleepy Joe started with 55%. Donald Trump ? He started with 45% approval. That would peak at 49%, and would average at 41%. Please, I implore you to forget that you're a rightoid and accept a basic fact - Trump is not personally liked by Americans. They think he's a loudmouth butthole who's attitude is unfit for office, and during his term 59% of the public didn't like him. So, a Sleepy Joe sweep, right?

Biden started popular enough. He was basically an Obama third term, and Obama was massively popular. He was very old, the pic above is a newspaper reporting Nixon being re-elected while Biden unseats an incumbent, which was a concern, but people generally liked him.

That would change fairly swiftly. Inflation from the Covid spending , under Trump lmao, caught up with America and inflation became rampant. Joe Biden had been elected on a promise of being a boring cracker who could let people forget about politics for a while, an elder statesman who would handle everything. He was already being blamed for the economy, but then there was the pull-out. Despite it being awesome, America finally stops wasting money on that shithole, Americans were horrified by the images it produced. His approval ratings sank like a rock and disapproval ratings soared.

The "Joe Biden is too old to lead" stuff went from a Republican talking point to basically accepted fact. The public was promised a boring statesman they could forget about it, and they're seeing global chaos and inflation - which has gotten back to decent rates, but since the only way prices will go down is through a recession, no one thinks it has. I mean yeah you have dipshit shooters like Will Stancil, but that's about it. So, Drumpf sweep right?

Yes and no. Despite Biden's massive unpopularity, the Red Wave promised for 2022 was barely a red drizzle - the Trump Republicans were so massively unpopular, the Democrats managed to narrowly expand a Senate majority, unseated 3 incumbent governors and Republicans only got 9 seats from the 435 seats up for election in 2022. The public hated Joe Biden, but the Democrats weren't unpopular. However, that doesn't change the fact that Joe Biden is unpopular.

Turns out deplatforming works, hooray! With Trump, he became less of a man and more of an idea. Yeah, Trump was an butthole - but prices were low and the world was at peace. (Incidentally, ask anyone who thinks this how exactly Trump will do this again and watch them not answer you.) America has always loved it's Dirty Harrys and Dr. Houses - take no shit buttholes who get results. Trump, away from the spotlight and with Biden viewed with contempt, was poised to crush Biden. That was until;

Some rightoids have tried to spin this, arguing the public doesn't care that Trump paid hush money to his mistress. They're on the right line of thinking, but they're overestimating the public's knowledge. They don't know what Trump did, and they don't care. Trump went from butthole they don't like to Convicted Criminal(tm) - a massive step up. They have faith in the institutions, they think whatever the verdict is, it's fair, and while they could hold their nose to vote for the butthole that made prices low, they can't do it for a Convicted Criminal(tm).

Biden's popularity hasn't change. They still think he's a senile idiot that shouldn't be in office - but he's not a Convicted Criminal(tm). For contrast, NeoCon-Nikki Haley has pulled anything from 4% to 13% over Joe Biden. While the highest results were obvious bullshit, the pattern is there. If Biden didn't have to run against Trump, he would get his butt paddled.

So, two massively unpopular old men are running against each other. One is a criminal nobody has ever liked, the other is a senile r-slur. Who wins?

Frick knows mate. Trump leads in some key swing states, like Arizona and Michigan, but his sheer unpopularity following the conviction has led to these being narrow leads. Worse still, the Biden Campaign has about $100 million more then the Trump Campaign, so some targeted ads could ruin Trump. If I had to goomble, and I do , I would put money on Biden winning. The warchest advantage will be the difference maker, but I wouldn't be surprised if Trump won.

Personally, I'm rooting for Biden winning while losing the popular vote . I think the Rightoid outrage after 2016 would be funny.

Thanks for reading my longpost I promise there's no agenda