Hey besties!!!

I'm the bloke that wrote this.

https://rdrama.net/h/pol/post/278965/the-state-of-the-race-whos

In the comments, I talk to a guy about the debates, and make a prediction. I wonder what I say?

I think the debates will be a Biden win, honestly. And going by the way rightoid media personalities have been pushing "Biden will be on drugs during the debates!!!", they think so as well. But we could all be wrong, Biden is really old after all.

Biden's performance can be summed as

The kindest thing I've seen about his performance is "Well, the debates don't matter." Is that the case Rdrama.net? Well, no. For this write-up, I'll compare the first debates, the second debates and sixth debates, which were considered to have the biggest impacts on the races, and how they relate to Biden's performance.

Tl;Dr

1960 US Debates

Richard Nixon () v John Kennedy ()

These debates are famous. The story is that Nixon looked like shit, Kennedy looked great, and so Kennedy won. This is only half of the story - America has elected uggos to office before. Politics is basically Hollywood for ugly people - were the American people really so shallow they voted for the Hotty over the Notty?

The campaign was built on a simple question - experience, with Vice-President Nixon, or change, with Senator Kennedy. Kennedy's campaign had been that Eisenhower as President had made the country stagnate. As President, he was going to advance civil rights, expand social security with medicare and get far more bombs so they could bomb the shit out of the Commies . Nixon promised to not screw up the good thing they had with Eisenhower, who was the most popular President until 9/11 era Bush .

Nixon looking like a corpse on TV while Kennedy was tanned and exuberant gave a lot of credit to the idea that America needed change, that Nixon was stagnation. With how insanely close 1960 really was, it's obvious this screw up was why Nixon lost the election. If he was able to look more secure on TV, then he would win. Instead, he became the visual argument for why Kennedy was right.

1976 US Debates

Gerald Ford () v Jimmy Carter () ((the joke is that Jimmy is a peanut farmer))

The battle of the nice guys is known for having the best ever losing campaign, when Ford managed to lose by just one state only 2 years after pardoning Nixon . If Ohio was 1% different, Ford would have been a two term president.

After roughly 15 years of lies from the Kennedy, Johnson and Nixon administration, America wanted change. Jimmy Carter, an outsider disliked by the mainstream Democrats, was able to ride the wave of change by positioning himself as a humble Bapist that just loved God and America and would never tell a lie . By contrast, Ford had been in Congress for about 20 years, was popular inside the party, and managed to barely beat Republican outsider Ronald Reagan . He was viewed at best as an r-slur that pardoned a criminal, at worst as another criminal.

Ford managed to overcome this however. He accepted the facts of the race, America loves newcomer Jimmy Carter, and adapted to them. Carter is an outsider - but can he handle the economy? The Cold War? Coupled with Ford just being a really nice, friendly guy, and he managed to flip the race on it's head by accepting the facts and changing the perspective on them.

The debates would end this, when he said repeatedly that the Soviet Union doesn't dominate East Europe.

It's clear that he's trying the same stuff as "experienced vs outsider" stuff by flipping the narrative and making Jimmy Carter sound weak on defence. But he just sounds like a fricking idiot, and ruined his own prior messaging. He would go on to admit his mistake, but it wasn't enough. Carter would narrowly win, despite his own countless mistakes.

1988 US Debates

George Bush () v Michael Dukakis ()

When the campaign started, Bush was going to lose. Governor Dukakis was a popular moderate liberal with one of the best states in the Union while Vice-President Bush was the dweeb tied to Reagan's various criminal scandals, like Iran-Contra . Bush was able to close the gap with one of the most brutally effective negative campaigns of all time, built on two key issues - Dukakis is soft on crime (America under Reagan had seen crime raise all over the nation, but lowest in Massachusetts) and Dukakis is soft on defence (Iran-Contra lol). If you've ever seen the Simpsons episode where Sideshow Bob runs for Mayor, it's genuinely barely a parody.

Dukakis misread the situation, and chose not to respond. Rather then make him look like the bigger man, he just made it seem like Bush was correct. Come the debate, and there's only one moment people are talking about:

: Governor Dukakis, if Kitty Dukakis were r*ped and murdered, would you favour an irrevocable death penalty for the killer?

: No I don't Bernard, and I think you know I've opposed the death penalty nearly all of my life. I don't believe it works as deterrent...

This really happened btw

The question was clearly, obviously inappropriate. And rather then say "Uh Mr. Shaw I'm really angry at what you're saying about my wife, there are better ways to discuss the issues" or whatever, he treated the question like it was fair and reasonable. If he wasn't gonna kick up a fuss, why should the public? So they treated the question like it was fair, and Dukakis' utter flop answer ("No I love murdering male feminists ") haunted him. There were other issues, but to the public he was the "soft on crime guy." Come the election, Bush wins in the last 400+ EV landslide.

Intermission

Did you know John Kerry is widely considered to have beaten George Bush in the debates? Or that Romney beat Obama in 2012? In 1984, during the first debates, Reagan's performance against Mondale is honestly comparable to Biden's performance last night. The idea that the debates don't matter does have some truth to it. The truth is, debates are just one part of the campaign. Everything, from the posters to the speeches to the badges, go into making a campaign. Debates aren't one massive part of it - they're just another cog in the electioneering machine. If a debate goes poorly, like in 2004, that doesn't matter. Bush wasn't running on being an egghead, he was running on being the commander, yee-haw! Reagan wasn't running on being the intellectual with the perfect facts and figures, he was running on keeping the government out of your life. The fact they preformed poorly doesn't matter, since the message wasn't really affected.

2024 Debates

Trump () v Biden ()

If you'll recall my write-up, I discussed the biggest issues these uniquely unpopular figures face. Trump is a loudmouth butthole and criminal, Biden is a senile r-slur. These debates couldn't have gone much better for Trump. He made some gaffes - some of his question dodging was kinda pathetic, outright bragging about repealing Roe V Wade will be used in some ads. But the formats of the debate were built, by the Biden team!!!!!, to cover Trump's worst traits. The 2016 and 2020 debates were both massive flops for Trump, since his obnoxious personality was on full display. With the mics being muted and the answer time limits being adhered to strictly, Trump couldn't be so annoying. Biden, by contrast, could barely fricking speak. He sounded like he was going to die in a week and could barely speak straight. 66% of undecided voters think Biden will die before 2028 (which yeah probably). When Biden can barely fricking speak, everything the public hates about Biden is made clearer than crystal.

Already, Trump is 2% ahead - basically undoing the conviction. 2% may not sound like much, but what can Biden do to fix it? Trump's convictions are hardly a secret. He's not really hidden his affairs. The only thing I can see stopping a Trump victory is if Trump is outright jailed, which polls have reported roughly halving his support base. With how obnoxious he acted in court, and were he a normal defendant, I would say that's likely. However, the Judge has made comments about not wanting to divide the country - this to me implies a fine, rather than behind bars.

Of course, anything can happen. There's always a good old fashioned October Surprise. But things are looking great for Dementia Daddy (R) - at this rate, he might even win the popular vote.