I think I finally understand how Trump fricked over America.

It is all about market forces.

With Trump constantly antagonizing the EU the EU finds itself better off trading more with China to lessen dependency on the US. This means US loses market share in the EU over time.

America does not have enough influence over South America to force them to trade more with the US so there too the US becomes second choice for trade between nations.

So now the US only has enough influence to force itself as the first choice for business to Canada and Mexico.

Between Canada and Mexico, only Mexico is really growing due to the increased trade with the US. Assuming that Mexico manages to grow to 6 Trillion USD at its peak value, that adds a total 1 trillion dollars to the US market via trade with Mexico.

So in total, the US becomes the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th preferred trade partner across the world excluding Canada and Mexico, where Canada and Mexico are a big enough market only to the extent of being able to add another trillion USD to the US economy at most.

If Globalization of goods and services is the future, then the US is no longer leading in it under Trump's leadership.

The US is stuck being completely dependent on its internal economy being capable of becoming complex enough as to guarantee perpetual economic growth along with having exclusive control over some high value industries.

Only problem with that being that the US is already one of the most complex economies on the planet and the exclusive control of high value industries for the US is now pretty much dead as China has been able to stay right behind the US at all times, meaning any country that can grow its economy by cooperating with the US can now grow its economy by cooperating with China instead and paying for Chinese tech.

This is what we are seeing in the EU where Germany is willing to strengthen trade ties with China. Shifting the future of the EU to more strongly cater to the Chinese market and vice versa.

In the robotics market China appears to be keeping up. In the AI industry, China is keeping close enough to the US that China is actively undercutting the US AI industry attempts to monetize their AI, with the only way to succeed being for the US to pass a federal ban on Chinese AI. It is only in the field of Space Craft that the US remains indisputably ahead but the spacecraft industry itself in not truly profitable to the extent of adding trillions to the economy for decades to come.

So can the US truly keep growing at a healthy rate in a world where they do not have anything to offer? Where they are no longer the richest market for other nations goods and services to compete in? Where the US no longer has exclusive monopolistic control of technologies? Where the US is no longer the first choice for doing further business?

The answer remains a firm no, and we find ourselves finally moving into the multi-polar world order in practice, where the US is finally reaching towards stagnation, as there are no longer any other nations remaining large enough to support it, and by the time they become big enough, no longer interested in further supporting a US that cannot be depended upon for military protection, good trade relations, or stable long term diplomatic sense.

There is a reason as to why Oligarchies fail, and the US is about to find out the hard way why, by becoming the next Japan with a lost generation of Americans and ever increasing immigration until the rest of the world catches up economically in 60 years time.

Conclusion:

We are at the part where we watch 60 years of American decline, with it becoming the 2nd biggest economy in the world within the next 30 years time.

Who will surpass the US and become the largest economy in the world?

It is most likely to be the EU because after the US they are the most liberal market on the planet and have been able to handle decades of hits and keep trudging along. The EU holds that golden spot where it is high enough that everybody tries to go there but low enough that they can still handle some immigration from Turkey and bits of the middle east.

If the US had as much shit going on as the EU it would have split into 5 pieces by now.

The EU becomes the future by virtue of being the one who is left.