Watch the full clip of President Trump saying Liz Cheney wants to send people to die in wars that she will never experience herself.

Then look at the headlines the media is writing about it.

Gee, I wonder why trust in media is at an all time low. pic.twitter.com/B8jLfHE2N4

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) November 1, 2024

!chuds !trump2024 Total neocon death

https://old.reddit.com/r/SuicideWatch/comments/1gg440g/considering_suicide_if_trump_wins_the_election_or/

I don't want that Nazi wannabe frick shit to win. Not watching my friends lose their rights. All my friends are in the LGBTQ+ or support it. I'm not going to watch them get locked away. I'll kill myself if that Nazi trump wins.

Why should I live in a Nazi like dictatorship where all my friends are locked up for being part of the LGBTQ community

https://old.reddit.com/r/SuicideWatch/comments/1geyjl4/im_trans_i_need_a_good_reason_to_not_kms_if_trump/

i would rather die than go off hrt.

I feel you, I'm Canadian, we're basically getting fricked here as well. I'm practically counting down the days till hrt is banned for adults in Canada.

If politicians somehow succeeded in fully banning hrt and gender-affirming procedures (which despite how scary things look right now, would be hard to do in absolute entirety), I promise you that trans people will still transition…including medically. Edited to avoid giving specific advice as per guidelines, but from my own experience, being queer and/or trans in a fascist society is less scary if you understand what is going on and what you can do about it.

https://old.reddit.com/r/SuicideWatch/comments/1fyr9kq/how_to_tell_my_therapist_that_i_have_set_a/

As Trump would say "I have concepts of a plan" and I hope to god when I depart this world that he will not have been elected. I promised I would stick around long enough to vote. I want to leave the world better than I found it, if I can. The final part of that is removing myself from the world.

!chuds !transphobes

Even after agreeing to being ousted for Kamala

President Joe Biden has had a nuanced and distanced role in the presidential campaign of Kamala Harris, gaffes notwithstanding. With a little over two months remaining in his term, Biden is reportedly trying to focus on his legacy and presidential library -- and both are in danger of going off the rails, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Biden needs to raise from $200 to $300 million to build a presidential library---an institution that is now de rigeur among retiring residents of the Oval Office. But the money isn't pouring in and although Biden has been accused of amassing a fortune during his 50 years in politics, he hasn't been much of a fundraiser for projects like the library, the Journal notes, saying he didn't stoop to gathering donations by having people spend a night in the White House.

There is confusion among the donor class with some saying they haven't even been asked for money and others saying they are waiting to see who wins the presidential election. Others have been stunned into fiscal hibernation because Biden was treated so badly by his party and kicked out of the presidential race by Democratic power brokers like former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. When Biden left the race in July and allowed Kamala Harris to replace him on the top of the ticket, he said he planned to focus on his legacy. There were rumors at the time that big name Dems like Barack Obama had threatened the funding of his library should he refuse to step aside.

Even without the funding in place, Biden counselor Steve Ricchetti is in charge of developing the theme for the library, according to WSJ sources. Biden may have started thinking about a library in the fall of 2023 when First Lady Jill Biden visited the Truman Presidential Library and asked her husband what he wanted to do in that regard.

In an interview with Special Counsel Robert Hur in October 2023, Biden reportedly said, "I don't think I'm supposed to, while I'm president, think about the library," prompting Jill Biden to object and insist the president should be planning for it now. Biden said both Syracuse University and the University of Delaware were "competing" to be the site of the library. But Biden expressed doubt that he could raise money for the structure while still in office. "I wouldn't know how---how could you raise money anyway while I'm a U.S. senator to do that---I mean president," Biden said.

!chuds !trump2024

https://old.reddit.com/r/JoeRogan/comments/1ggk14k/joe_rogan_experience_2221_jd_vance/

Vice President Harris could win the presidential election next week. But fingers in Democratic circles are already being pointed behind the scenes, in the event that she falls to former President Trump.

While some Democrats say they are increasingly hopeful that Harris will win, others have expressed mounting frustration about a string of factors that have plagued the campaign from the outset.

Fingers are being pointed at Harris and her campaign when it comes to disappointment over her messaging, particularly on the economy.

But some Democrats have already looked to pin the blame on President Biden, who some think took too long to step aside.

"People are nervous and they're trying to cover their butt and get a little ahead of Election Day," one Democratic strategist said of the sniping. "It's based on anxiety, stakes and the unique nature of this cycle.

"We didn't have a traditional process for this election. We didn't have a primary. People just had to fall in line," the strategist added, saying "it's not surprising to me" that some of the blame game is happening even before Election Day.

If Harris loses, "there will be a mad dash to assign blame," the strategist added.

The vice president's decision to pick Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) as her running mate over Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) surely will be second-guessed if Trump wins the Keystone State.

"[Harris] is going to look real silly for not picking Shapiro," one former aide in the Obama White House said.

A Democratic donor agreed: "I'm not sure Walz got her anything. A lot of people I'm talking to say he seems like a great guy. Would I want to have a beer with him? Absolutely. But let's face it, he wasn't a great choice."

Biden put himself squarely in the news cycle on Tuesday evening when he appeared to liken Trump supporters to garbage.

The president walked back the remarks, and the White House insisted they had been taken out of context. Either way, they stepped on a largely successful speech by Harris on the Ellipse in Washington. The speech, which Harris delivered with the White House as a backdrop, was a pivotal moment in the final stretch of the campaign because it represented her closing argument for herself and against Trump.

It is nearly impossible to believe the comments did not greatly irritate the Harris campaign, though the vice president said the issue did not come up when she spoke to Biden on Tuesday night.

"Talk about an unforced error and so close to the end," one strategist said. "How could anyone not be annoyed by that?"

On Wednesday, Harris was still cleaning up Biden's comments.

"First of all, he clarified his comments, but let me be clear. I strongly disagree with any criticism of people based on who they vote for," Harris told reporters as she departed for a three-state campaign swing.

Harris has kept Biden at a distance during the final stretch of the campaign, even as she has appeared alongside surrogates, including former President Obama. The move has irked Biden loyalists who say the president had a successful administration and should be out there — however awkward — to help campaign for his vice president.

"He should be out there," one loyalist said. "The reason she's where she is, is because of him."

But even before Biden's "garbage" comment, there were whispers he would be responsible for a Harris defeat.

These voices say Biden's withdrawal from the race in late July didn't do Harris any favors since she hasn't had enough time to properly telegraph her biography.

Others said he never should have run for reelection, and that he should have allowed the party to have a full primary to pick his successor.

The unusual part about the quiet finger pointing going on is that Harris could very well be elected the next president next week.

She leads in most national polls and continues to lead in various polls of key swing states. New CNN polling released Wednesday found Harris with a 6-point lead in Wisconsin and a 5-point lead in Michigan. The new polling found the two candidates tied in Pennsylvania.

If Harris wins all three states, she will almost certainly win the election.

"Harris is closing strong with big energy moments and rising momentum," Democratic strategist Joel Payne said. "She's the more popular candidate, she has a broader coalition and she's got a higher ceiling than Trump.

"Democratic anxiety is understandable because of the threat of a Trump second term, but there's a lot to feel good about related to Kamala Harris and Democrats up and down the ballot coming down the stretch," Payne added.

At the same time, the race is incredibly close, meaning either candidate has a strong chance of winning and neither side can feel all that certain.

That creates nervousness and paranoia, a perfect atmosphere for second-guessing and backbiting.

There will be second-guessing if Trump loses, too.

The former president has doubled down on caustic speech in a bid to bolster his support among men, which could lose him critical female voters — where Harris enjoys a large lead.

If Harris wins, Republicans will second-guess their decision to ride with Trump through a third presidential cycle. They'll also wonder why he had to hold that rally on Sunday at Madison Square Garden, where a comedian's off-color jokes about Latinx and Puerto Rico won negative attention.

"It's a terrible look for the campaign," one Republican strategist said. "He should stick to the message and only the message. If we go off of it, he'll lose."

!chuds in shambles

All the polling supports the buzziest statistical claim of the 2024 election: Black voters are moving toward Donald Trump. An October 2020 Pew Research survey found that Black voters favored Joe Biden by a margin of 81 points, 89 percent to 8 percent. But four years later, Vice President Kamala Harris's margin of support among this group is just 65 points (79 percent for her vs. 14 percent for Trump). In an extremely tight election, a 16-point drop seems like a very big deal.

My expertise isn't in predicting election outcomes, so I won't attempt to do so using this data. I'm a decision scientist and a retired professional poker player. I study how we make decisions and how we can train ourselves to make better ones. The conversation around Black voters is an example of one theme I plan to explore in this year-long column for The Post: how our instincts about data can lead us to draw the wrong conclusions.

For all the talk about misinformation these days, misinterpretation of factually correct information is what keeps me up at night. The research backs up my concern. A May study by researchers at MIT and the University of Pennsylvania found that information about covid-19 vaccines that passed a fact check but was misleading was much more consequential than misinformation in driving a potentially bad, high-stakes decision. How much more consequential? Try 46-fold.

When we look at the case of Trump and Black voters, the trend is not in dispute. The problem is that we've neglected to gather all the information we need to put the trend in context. We can't know what to make of the numbers --- whether they are big or small, or significant or not --- if we're looking at the data in isolation, as the majority of commentators have presented it.

As is often the case, we have yet to ask two necessary questions of the data: "Compared with what?" and "Out of how many?"

For the movement among Black voters to matter, it must mean a net loss for Harris and a net gain for Trump. When we compare Black voters only to themselves, and no other group, it creates the appearance that this is the case. When we change the comparison to all voting blocs, the picture changes. According to recent polling, Trump is doing worse with White voters, specifically those without college degrees, than he did in 2020 and 2016. I was relieved to see CNN's Harry Enten point this out last week.

In the last two elections, Trump's key demographic --- his base --- has been non-college-educated White voters. In 2016, he did better than Hillary Clinton with this group by 33 points. Then in 2020 he outperformed Biden by 31 points. But according to the latest polling averages, Trump's lead among this group has fallen by 4 points from 2020: He now holds a 27-point margin over Harris.

Of course, Trump's 16-point gain among Black voters feels a lot bigger than Harris's 4-point gain among non-college-educated White voters. Four times bigger, in fact. That is probably why Trump's gain is getting a lot more of our attention.

But this framing cuts off the full picture. Elections are about total votes, so we need to figure out what percentage of the electorate these two groups represent.

According to Pew, Black voters make up about 14 percent of the electorate nationally. In battleground states Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Black voters represent smaller shares of the electorate: 14 percent, 11 percent and 6 percent, respectively. Nationally, non-college-educated Whites make up 40 percent of the electorate, but in those Great Lakes states, they make up 51 percent of the vote. So although Trump's gain with Black voters looks to be four times bigger than Harris's gain with noncollege White voters, Harris's "new voters" demographic outnumbers Trump's by significantly more than 4 to 1.

To give you an idea of how much the proportion matters, if you selected 100 voters at random in Michigan, Trump would be predicted to gain about two Black voters, while Harris could expect to gain about two noncollege White voters. That's a wash. In Wisconsin, Trump would be predicted to gain about one Black voter, while Harris would be predicted to gain about two non-college-educated White voters. That's 2 to 1 in Harris's favor.

This is why it's so important to ask "Out of how many?" and "Compared with what?" When we don't, we're basing our beliefs on a statistical illusion. Making more accurate predictions depends on drawing the right conclusions from that data --- and, just as important, not drawing the wrong conclusions.

In a presidential election, quality information about the state of the race is crucial because it can shape our behavior. Research has shown that polling can influence how people vote, so misinterpreting it has consequences.

Trump's improvement with Black voters might ultimately matter more in the right places than Harris's improvement with White voters. But we can't assume so based on the headlines we're reading today, so we shouldn't make decisions based on them.

I'm writing this column because I've spent my career thinking about these issues. I've discovered that there are all sorts of things we can do to improve our decision-making. Becoming a better consumer of information is at the top of my to-do list. We can learn to ask the right questions about the information we encounter. We can learn to ask for more context. We can become better at avoiding these self-inflicted errors.

Whether at the ballot box or the poker table or the kitchen table, learning how to become better consumers of information is a project worth pursuing. It's a project I am excited to share with you over the course of the next year.

Coping like vaxboys do because we suck and zombies always win.

This is so insane. pic.twitter.com/pBQHNBA0gx

— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) October 30, 2024

!nooticers someone ping grillers

PRESIDENT TRUMP: "How do you like my garbage truck? This truck is in honor of Kamala and Joe Biden." pic.twitter.com/7UwMZ8syvx

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) October 30, 2024

!chuds Lol

A University of Michigan student who is from China and not a U.S. citizen allegedly voted Sunday in Ann Arbor and is being charged with two crimes, six days before a pivotal presidential election.

The filing of the charges was revealed Wednesday in a statement from Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson's office and the Washtenaw County Prosecutor's office. The press release didn't identify the student but described him only as "a non-U.S. citizen."

The 19-year-old individual from China was legally present in the United States but not a citizen, which meant he couldn't legally cast a ballot, according to information from the Michigan Secretary of State's office. He registered to vote on Sunday using his UM student identification and other documentation establishing residency in Ann Arbor, he signed a document identifying himself as a U.S. citizen and his ballot was entered into a tabulator, according to the Secretary of State's office.

The ballot was cast at an early voting site at the University of Michigan Museum of Art on State Street, according to the Ann Arbor city administrator.

Later, the UM student voter contacted the local clerk's office, asking if he could somehow get his ballot back, according to Benson's office.

The student's ballot is expected to count in the upcoming election — although it was illegally cast — because there is no way for election officials to retrieve it once it's been put through a tabulator, according to two sources familiar with Michigan election laws. The setup is meant to prevent ballots from being tracked back to an individual voter.

"We're grateful for the swift action of the clerk in this case, who took the appropriate steps and referred the case to law enforcement," said a joint statement from the offices of Benson and Washtenaw County Prosecutor Eli Savit. "We are also grateful to law enforcement for swiftly and thoroughly investigating this case.

"Anyone who attempts to vote illegally faces significant consequences, including but not limited to arrest and prosecution."

The person is being charged with perjury — making a false statement on an affidavit for the purpose of securing voter registration — and being an unauthorized elector who attempted to vote. The latter allegation is a felony punishable by up to four years behind bars and a fine of up to $2,000, according to Michigan law. The standard penalty for perjury in Michigan is 15 years in prison, but it's unclear what it would be in this case involving lying on an application to vote.

A UM police detective gave a swear-to on a law enforcement investigation Wednesday morning before 15th District Court Magistrate Tamara Garwood for two election charges against the student sought by Savit, court administrator Shryl Samborn said.

As of Wednesday afternoon, the student had not yet been arraigned. The student is being represented by UM Student Legal Services, Samborn said.

UM spokeswoman Colleen Mastony directed questions Wednesday to Benson's and Slavit's offices.

In a message to the Ann Arbor City Council members, obtained by The Detroit News, Milton Dohoney Jr., the city's administrator, said there had been an instance of "potential voter fraud in Ann Arbor" involving a University of Michigan student who's a green card holder.

"Through a series of actions, the student was apparently able to register, receive a ballot and cast a vote," Dohoney wrote in an email Monday. "Based upon the scenario that we're hearing this morning, the student was fully aware of what he was doing, and that it was not legal."

Dohoney acknowledged in the email that the story might get "picked up by the regional or perhaps national media."

'An extremely isolate and rare event'

Under a 2018 ballot proposal that voters approved with 67% support, people can register to vote in Michigan up to and including on Election Day. Proof of residency for voting can include a driver's license, state identification card, a utility bill or university records, according to the Secretary of State's website.

The statement from the Secretary of State's website and the Washtenaw County Prosecutor's office described voting by non-U.S. citizens as "an extremely isolated and rare event."

"Let this much be clear: Voting records are public," the statement added. "Any noncitizen who attempts to vote fraudulently in Michigan will be exposing themselves to great risk and will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law."

Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel, the state's top law enforcement official, said her office had launched an independent, parallel investigation into the voter fraud allegation in Ann Arbor.

"It is the responsibility of each and every resident of this state and nation to adhere to the law, and Michigan election law makes clear that non-citizens cannot vote in our elections," Nessel said. "We take all allegations of voter fraud extremely seriously, and the public should expect nothing less."

In 2012, during a legal fight over Michigan's voter application requiring individuals to attest their U.S. citizenship under penalty of perjury, then-Republican Secretary of State Ruth Johnson's office said there was evidence of two instances in which Canadians had voted in Michigan elections using state-issued driver's licenses to register.

The presidential race in Michigan between Republican former President Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to be close. Some experts have predicted it could come down to tens of thousands of votes.

In 2020, Trump lost Michigan to Democrat Joe Biden by 154,188 votes or about 3 percentage points, 48%-51%. After that election, the Republican maintained false or unproven claims that widespread voter fraud influenced the outcome in Michigan. However, bipartisan canvassing boards, a series of court rulings and an investigation by the GOP-controlled state Senate Oversight Committee all upheld the result.

But the accusations about the 2020 election have helped to prompt heightened scrutiny over the 2024 vote.

In recent weeks, Elon Musk, a prominent Trump supporter who has been described as the world's richest man, has been posting on social media about Michigan's voter rolls. And during a rally in Oakland County on Saturday, Trump called Michigan's early voting system "ridiculous" and voiced support for people having "prove" they were U.S. citizens before casting ballots.

"There's bad stuff going on," Trump contended.

Michigan voters approved a ballot proposal in 2022 to provide a right in the state Constitution for at least nine days of early, in-person voting. That amendment passed with 60% support.

The Michigan Secretary of State's website says in every state, "only U.S. citizens are eligible to register to vote or cast a ballot in any state or federal election."

"There is no evidence to support claims that large numbers of noncitizens have voted in past elections or are registering to vote in 2024," the Secretary of State's website says.

2024 election results predictions a week out and my 2020 predictions a week out vs actual.

I was off by 4 points in 2020. The rDrama prediction modeling is statistically the most accurate in the world. pic.twitter.com/qxlJEXvUbL

— rDrama.net (@rdramanet) October 30, 2024

!nooticers

https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president

arr slash politicaldiscussion gets more delusional by the day. Kamala was the greatest Presidential candidate of all time and she's only going to lose because Trump rigged the election!

never mind that most "tax exempt" labour unions have signs out front/openly endorse candidates.

How dare churches have an opinion tho!!!

"Sent us a virus." They let this dangerous misinformation air? Asians already suffered enough unfair backlash during the pandemic.