!chuds in shambles

All the polling supports the buzziest statistical claim of the 2024 election: Black voters are moving toward Donald Trump. An October 2020 Pew Research survey found that Black voters favored Joe Biden by a margin of 81 points, 89 percent to 8 percent. But four years later, Vice President Kamala Harris's margin of support among this group is just 65 points (79 percent for her vs. 14 percent for Trump). In an extremely tight election, a 16-point drop seems like a very big deal.

My expertise isn't in predicting election outcomes, so I won't attempt to do so using this data. I'm a decision scientist and a retired professional poker player. I study how we make decisions and how we can train ourselves to make better ones. The conversation around Black voters is an example of one theme I plan to explore in this year-long column for The Post: how our instincts about data can lead us to draw the wrong conclusions.

For all the talk about misinformation these days, misinterpretation of factually correct information is what keeps me up at night. The research backs up my concern. A May study by researchers at MIT and the University of Pennsylvania found that information about covid-19 vaccines that passed a fact check but was misleading was much more consequential than misinformation in driving a potentially bad, high-stakes decision. How much more consequential? Try 46-fold.

When we look at the case of Trump and Black voters, the trend is not in dispute. The problem is that we've neglected to gather all the information we need to put the trend in context. We can't know what to make of the numbers --- whether they are big or small, or significant or not --- if we're looking at the data in isolation, as the majority of commentators have presented it.

As is often the case, we have yet to ask two necessary questions of the data: "Compared with what?" and "Out of how many?"

For the movement among Black voters to matter, it must mean a net loss for Harris and a net gain for Trump. When we compare Black voters only to themselves, and no other group, it creates the appearance that this is the case. When we change the comparison to all voting blocs, the picture changes. According to recent polling, Trump is doing worse with White voters, specifically those without college degrees, than he did in 2020 and 2016. I was relieved to see CNN's Harry Enten point this out last week.

In the last two elections, Trump's key demographic --- his base --- has been non-college-educated White voters. In 2016, he did better than Hillary Clinton with this group by 33 points. Then in 2020 he outperformed Biden by 31 points. But according to the latest polling averages, Trump's lead among this group has fallen by 4 points from 2020: He now holds a 27-point margin over Harris.

Of course, Trump's 16-point gain among Black voters feels a lot bigger than Harris's 4-point gain among non-college-educated White voters. Four times bigger, in fact. That is probably why Trump's gain is getting a lot more of our attention.

But this framing cuts off the full picture. Elections are about total votes, so we need to figure out what percentage of the electorate these two groups represent.

According to Pew, Black voters make up about 14 percent of the electorate nationally. In battleground states Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Black voters represent smaller shares of the electorate: 14 percent, 11 percent and 6 percent, respectively. Nationally, non-college-educated Whites make up 40 percent of the electorate, but in those Great Lakes states, they make up 51 percent of the vote. So although Trump's gain with Black voters looks to be four times bigger than Harris's gain with noncollege White voters, Harris's "new voters" demographic outnumbers Trump's by significantly more than 4 to 1.

To give you an idea of how much the proportion matters, if you selected 100 voters at random in Michigan, Trump would be predicted to gain about two Black voters, while Harris could expect to gain about two noncollege White voters. That's a wash. In Wisconsin, Trump would be predicted to gain about one Black voter, while Harris would be predicted to gain about two non-college-educated White voters. That's 2 to 1 in Harris's favor.

This is why it's so important to ask "Out of how many?" and "Compared with what?" When we don't, we're basing our beliefs on a statistical illusion. Making more accurate predictions depends on drawing the right conclusions from that data --- and, just as important, not drawing the wrong conclusions.

In a presidential election, quality information about the state of the race is crucial because it can shape our behavior. Research has shown that polling can influence how people vote, so misinterpreting it has consequences.

Trump's improvement with Black voters might ultimately matter more in the right places than Harris's improvement with White voters. But we can't assume so based on the headlines we're reading today, so we shouldn't make decisions based on them.

I'm writing this column because I've spent my career thinking about these issues. I've discovered that there are all sorts of things we can do to improve our decision-making. Becoming a better consumer of information is at the top of my to-do list. We can learn to ask the right questions about the information we encounter. We can learn to ask for more context. We can become better at avoiding these self-inflicted errors.

Whether at the ballot box or the poker table or the kitchen table, learning how to become better consumers of information is a project worth pursuing. It's a project I am excited to share with you over the course of the next year.

Coping like vaxboys do because we suck and zombies always win.

This is so insane. pic.twitter.com/pBQHNBA0gx

— Yashar Ali 🐘 (@yashar) October 30, 2024

!nooticers someone ping grillers

PRESIDENT TRUMP: "How do you like my garbage truck? This truck is in honor of Kamala and Joe Biden." pic.twitter.com/7UwMZ8syvx

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) October 30, 2024

!chuds Lol

A University of Michigan student who is from China and not a U.S. citizen allegedly voted Sunday in Ann Arbor and is being charged with two crimes, six days before a pivotal presidential election.

The filing of the charges was revealed Wednesday in a statement from Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson's office and the Washtenaw County Prosecutor's office. The press release didn't identify the student but described him only as "a non-U.S. citizen."

The 19-year-old individual from China was legally present in the United States but not a citizen, which meant he couldn't legally cast a ballot, according to information from the Michigan Secretary of State's office. He registered to vote on Sunday using his UM student identification and other documentation establishing residency in Ann Arbor, he signed a document identifying himself as a U.S. citizen and his ballot was entered into a tabulator, according to the Secretary of State's office.

The ballot was cast at an early voting site at the University of Michigan Museum of Art on State Street, according to the Ann Arbor city administrator.

Later, the UM student voter contacted the local clerk's office, asking if he could somehow get his ballot back, according to Benson's office.

The student's ballot is expected to count in the upcoming election — although it was illegally cast — because there is no way for election officials to retrieve it once it's been put through a tabulator, according to two sources familiar with Michigan election laws. The setup is meant to prevent ballots from being tracked back to an individual voter.

"We're grateful for the swift action of the clerk in this case, who took the appropriate steps and referred the case to law enforcement," said a joint statement from the offices of Benson and Washtenaw County Prosecutor Eli Savit. "We are also grateful to law enforcement for swiftly and thoroughly investigating this case.

"Anyone who attempts to vote illegally faces significant consequences, including but not limited to arrest and prosecution."

The person is being charged with perjury — making a false statement on an affidavit for the purpose of securing voter registration — and being an unauthorized elector who attempted to vote. The latter allegation is a felony punishable by up to four years behind bars and a fine of up to $2,000, according to Michigan law. The standard penalty for perjury in Michigan is 15 years in prison, but it's unclear what it would be in this case involving lying on an application to vote.

A UM police detective gave a swear-to on a law enforcement investigation Wednesday morning before 15th District Court Magistrate Tamara Garwood for two election charges against the student sought by Savit, court administrator Shryl Samborn said.

As of Wednesday afternoon, the student had not yet been arraigned. The student is being represented by UM Student Legal Services, Samborn said.

UM spokeswoman Colleen Mastony directed questions Wednesday to Benson's and Slavit's offices.

In a message to the Ann Arbor City Council members, obtained by The Detroit News, Milton Dohoney Jr., the city's administrator, said there had been an instance of "potential voter fraud in Ann Arbor" involving a University of Michigan student who's a green card holder.

"Through a series of actions, the student was apparently able to register, receive a ballot and cast a vote," Dohoney wrote in an email Monday. "Based upon the scenario that we're hearing this morning, the student was fully aware of what he was doing, and that it was not legal."

Dohoney acknowledged in the email that the story might get "picked up by the regional or perhaps national media."

'An extremely isolate and rare event'

Under a 2018 ballot proposal that voters approved with 67% support, people can register to vote in Michigan up to and including on Election Day. Proof of residency for voting can include a driver's license, state identification card, a utility bill or university records, according to the Secretary of State's website.

The statement from the Secretary of State's website and the Washtenaw County Prosecutor's office described voting by non-U.S. citizens as "an extremely isolated and rare event."

"Let this much be clear: Voting records are public," the statement added. "Any noncitizen who attempts to vote fraudulently in Michigan will be exposing themselves to great risk and will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law."

Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel, the state's top law enforcement official, said her office had launched an independent, parallel investigation into the voter fraud allegation in Ann Arbor.

"It is the responsibility of each and every resident of this state and nation to adhere to the law, and Michigan election law makes clear that non-citizens cannot vote in our elections," Nessel said. "We take all allegations of voter fraud extremely seriously, and the public should expect nothing less."

In 2012, during a legal fight over Michigan's voter application requiring individuals to attest their U.S. citizenship under penalty of perjury, then-Republican Secretary of State Ruth Johnson's office said there was evidence of two instances in which Canadians had voted in Michigan elections using state-issued driver's licenses to register.

The presidential race in Michigan between Republican former President Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to be close. Some experts have predicted it could come down to tens of thousands of votes.

In 2020, Trump lost Michigan to Democrat Joe Biden by 154,188 votes or about 3 percentage points, 48%-51%. After that election, the Republican maintained false or unproven claims that widespread voter fraud influenced the outcome in Michigan. However, bipartisan canvassing boards, a series of court rulings and an investigation by the GOP-controlled state Senate Oversight Committee all upheld the result.

But the accusations about the 2020 election have helped to prompt heightened scrutiny over the 2024 vote.

In recent weeks, Elon Musk, a prominent Trump supporter who has been described as the world's richest man, has been posting on social media about Michigan's voter rolls. And during a rally in Oakland County on Saturday, Trump called Michigan's early voting system "ridiculous" and voiced support for people having "prove" they were U.S. citizens before casting ballots.

"There's bad stuff going on," Trump contended.

Michigan voters approved a ballot proposal in 2022 to provide a right in the state Constitution for at least nine days of early, in-person voting. That amendment passed with 60% support.

The Michigan Secretary of State's website says in every state, "only U.S. citizens are eligible to register to vote or cast a ballot in any state or federal election."

"There is no evidence to support claims that large numbers of noncitizens have voted in past elections or are registering to vote in 2024," the Secretary of State's website says.

2024 election results predictions a week out and my 2020 predictions a week out vs actual.

I was off by 4 points in 2020. The rDrama prediction modeling is statistically the most accurate in the world. pic.twitter.com/qxlJEXvUbL

— rDrama.net (@rdramanet) October 30, 2024

!nooticers

https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president

arr slash politicaldiscussion gets more delusional by the day. Kamala was the greatest Presidential candidate of all time and she's only going to lose because Trump rigged the election!

never mind that most "tax exempt" labour unions have signs out front/openly endorse candidates.

How dare churches have an opinion tho!!!

"Sent us a virus." They let this dangerous misinformation air? Asians already suffered enough unfair backlash during the pandemic.

"The Monarch unilaterally appoints religious members to the House of Lords through the established State Church."

• Just a figurehead! We are still a democracy!

"The Monarch unilaterally chooses the Prime Minister and merely considers the recommendation from Parliament."

• Just a figurehead! We are still a democracy!

"The Monarch unilateraly appoints some of the people who choose the Prime Minister."

• Just a figurehead! We are still a democracy!

"All naval warships sail under the name of the Monarch."

• Just a figurehead! We are still a democracy!

!burgers and I thought America was r-slurred

They also ruined the local environment.

#BREAKING: USA Today rejects endorsing Kamala Harris.

It endorsed Biden in 2020 and opposed Trump in 2016.

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 28, 2024

!chuds !trump2024

USA Today the Latest to Offer Up Excuse for Lack of Presidential Endorsement

USA Today, the nation's fourth largest newspaper, says it's joining The Washington Post and the Los Angeles Times in not endorsing a presidential candidate this election.

A spokesperson for the paper told the Daily Beast on Monday that it will instead focus on providing "readers with the facts that matter and the trusted information they need to make informed decisions."

That's a stark difference from four years ago when USA Today broke with decades-old tradition to endorse Joe Biden for president. That endorsement claimed Donald Trump wasn't a capable leader and that the U.S. was "dangerously off course."

USA Today's editorial board wrote that it decided to endorse back then—for the first time since 1982—because the 2020 election was was an "extraordinary moment" in history that required an "extraordinary response" from the paper.

"Biden is a worthy antidote to Trump's unbounded narcissism and chronic chaos," the paper told its readers.

Trump, 78, is by most accounts still the same man today as he was when USA Today printed its scathing editorial about him, but the paper has apparently had a change of heart in what its readers are looking for from it.

Lark-Marie Antón, a USA Today spokesperson, explained the decision to not endorse in an email: "Why are we doing this? Because we believe America's future is decided locally—one race at a time. And with more than 200 publications across the nation, our public service is to provide readers with the facts that matter and the trusted information they need to make informed decisions."

USA Today has a circulation of 132,640 print subscribers and has millions of more readers online. However, unlike the trio of national newspapers larger than it by print circulation—The New York Times, the Post, and The Wall Street Journal—USA Today is the flagship brand for over 200 local newspapers dotted across the country.

Unlike the billionaires overseeing of the Post and LA Times, there have been no reports that any single person in the leadership at Gannett, which is a publicly traded company, intervened to personally shut down an endorsement at USA Today.

Other Gannett newspapers are free to endorse in local elections, Antón said, but none are endorsing at the presidential level. That includes the Palm Beach Post, whose coverage area includes Mar-a-Lago, as well as large papers in three swing states—The Arizona Republic, the Detroit Free Press, and the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

The Poyntner Institute, a non-profit journ*lism research organization, reported this week that presidential endorsements are becoming less common at both regional and national newspapers. That's partially due to shrinking staffs, it said, but also because online readers aren't able to—or choose not to—discern the difference between a newspaper's editorial board and its straight-news coverage. That can lead to incensed readers and less subscribers.

The Wall Street Journal, as it has since 1928, has declined to endorse a candidate this election, leaving The New York Times' backing of Harris as the lone presidential endorsement from a national newspaper.

People don't understand the severity of censorship on Reddit. Censorship is a tool on Reddit that moderators use to manufacture a false consensus.

r/Texas has banned many people for the grave sin of being a Republican, making the sub very pro Democrat.

This is the result: pic.twitter.com/EvehvLNX7l

— Reddit Lies (@reddit_lies) October 28, 2024

!nooticers !dixie

https://old.reddit.com/r/texas/comments/1gcbkzh/go_democrat_texas/

Trump's gonna win pic.twitter.com/F6GhBTAEKh

— Jesse Singal (@jessesingal) October 27, 2024

!chuds !trump2024

https://inthesetimes.com/article/walz-harris-trump-coach-football

@Mummyvann