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yeah, before airplanes, mass global communication, sattalites and drones, etc.

All of those things you mentioned are incredibly dependent on a highly complex chain of logistics and industry, chains which would be the first to break in a major collapse scenario.

What you predict might happen in todays day and age is pure speculation with no kore or less weight than my speculation.

What I'm suggesting is a general description of what historically has happened when complex societies break down.

I disagree

Go to any Amish community and see how much they need luxury bunkers and scifi AI robots. Oh, and good luck maintaining all that advanced shit without any replacement parts.

that's with traditional war though

I was not talking about a traditional war. I was taking about a collapse in local order, usually what happens during a coup de tat.

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would be the first to break in a major collapse scenario.

yoi dont know that, nor to what extent and in what ways civilization will collapse when whatever happens happens.

Go to any Amish community and see how much they need luxury bunkers and scifi AI robots.

need=/=want, and somethings that are wants are quite useful/helpful, like modern medicine and technology.

I was not talking about a traditional war. I was taking about a collapse in local order, usually what happens during a coup de tat.

thats still war in the traditional sense. Not a mass cataclysm, zombie apocalypse or thermonuclear war.(each of which would themselves lead to drastically different outcomes).

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yoi dont know that, nor to what extent and in what ways civilization will collapse when whatever happens happens.

The most complex, wide-reaching chains would most likely be the first to break-down. That is a very uncontroversial take.

need=/=want, and somethings that are wants are quite useful/helpful, like modern medicine and technology.

Enough medicine for a family isn't going to make someone rich, and medicine expires. A handful of technology in the bunker isn't going to be useful at scale and it can no longer be repaired.

Not a mass cataclysm or thermonuclear war.(each of which would themselves lead to drastically different outcomes).

They'd lead to an even more extreme versions of the same outcome as a regime collapse. In other words, if local rich people can't stay rich through a local regime collapse without an external system in which to store their wealth, then global rich people can't stay rich through a global collapse since the system on which their wealth depended (and where it was stored) will have collapsed, as well.

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medicine expires.

most of it doesnt expire for 10-15 years

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7040264

everything else you said is just more speculation

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Amoxicillin-Clavulanate was tested to 5 years in that study. From your link:

expiration date chief said that with a handful of exception notably nitroglycerin, Insulin and Liquid antibiotic most drugs are probably as durable as the agency tested.

It has been reported that bioavailability of EpiPen® (epinephrine auto-injectors) were reduced when administered between 1 to 90 months after the labelled expiration date compared with those that were not yet expired

So between 19 and 109 months my EpiPen might not work. Playing Russian roulette during a severe allergic reaction sounds like a lot of fun.

everything else you said is just more speculation

lol

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I dont expect people with severe allergies and diabetus to survive.

90% of medications last 10-15 years. Most people dont need daily medications. Most medicines can be stock piled. Medicines would be highly valueable in a barter system.

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Most people need antibiotics and those last 5 years at most.

Most medicines can be stock piled.

They can also be stolen at gunpoint from the soft-bodied techie that crawls out of his luxury bunker.

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They can also be stolen from the soft-boiled techie that crawls out of his luxury bunker.

You dont think they thought to have guns?

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You dont think they thought to have guns?

One soft-bodied techie clumsily wielding his mall-ninja AR-15 against an armed squad of ex-Reservist marauders. Sounds like a good matchup.

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Most people need antibiotics

What? Modern antibiotics and their overuse is at most a 100 year old phenomenon. Also:

Ongoing research states that if the right storage conditions are met, medications – including antibiotics can retain 90% of their potency for up to as much as 15 years after expiration. https://prescriptionhope.com/blog-can-you-take-expired-antibiotics

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What? Modern antibiotics and their overuse is at most a 100 year old phenomenon

...antibiotics are the most useful medication to stockpile. What medications did you have in mind?

Ongoing research states that if the right storage conditions are met, medications – including antibiotics can retain 90% of their potency for up to as much as 15 years after expiration.

It's saying that they measured up to 15 years for some of those medications. Also from your link:

90% of the potency and efficacy of antibiotics can be retained 5 years from the expiration date if stored correctly.

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