Now that we know for a fact Russia isn't winning the war, what happens to the world order after Russia loses the war?

A country who is the aggressor and still ends up with their land getting occupied is very unlikely to end up being the winner of the conflict. We can say with 80-90% certainty that Russia is not going to win this war that began with the invasion of Ukraine.

We can expect this conflict to carry on for 3-5 more years before Russia has to give up due to a combination of lack of funds, inflation, and population loss.

After that, Russia has already done a big enough number of Ukraine that Ukraine isn't going to recover as a functional nation state. The only choice Ukraine now has is to join the EU and fall comfortably into national decline where the GDP go up but the population disappears over time.

This is a big win for the western powers as now the western powers have defeated Russia ( again ) by using their weakest member ( Ukraine ), and Ukraine now fully sides with the west as a long term ally and member. This also opens up further pressure on Belarus to either fully join into Russia or give up all ambitions and turn back towards the west for support and economic partnership.

Russia itself is likely to maintain its geographical integrity, having to give back all Ukrainian lands in exchange for Ukraine giving back the Russian lands that it occupies. Russia would however be left worse off than before it started the war, as its population will be demographically far worse off due to all the deaths and injuries in the war, its labor force will be worse off due to all the deaths and injuries from the war, its intellectual supply will be worse off due to anybody with any competency in their work running away, and its economy will be worse off for having to recover from a war time economic status, higher than GDP growth inflation, and the continued primary and secondary sanctions from the west. This puts Russia in a position where their economy is going to decline year or year, or at the very least stagnate to the point of falling behind year on year, similar to Japan in the past and current generation.

As the Russia economy falls to levels where it cannot sustain itself, it becomes codependent on other larger economies for its growth. With the west shut off to Russia, it is left depending on China for its continued survival. China takes full advantage of this opportunity and loses a potential rival in the form of Russia, and gains a permanent raw resource and cheap labor provider in Russia, as China's continually growing economy can prosper with a Russian labor class beneath the Chinese middle class, similar to poor nation immigrants moving to the US as maids and McDonalds workers in the first generation.

This loss of power in Russia would result in Russia being unable to extend its influence beyond its borders, and any nation state around the globe which was reliant on Russian support to keep itself afloat would be worse off in the near future. Such as Assad's Syria, Armenia, Iran, and Palestine. We can see these current anti-western conflicts as all being connected by a network of non-western aligned nation states cooperating with one another, and the loss of Russia results in the weakening of all parts of the structure.

Russia's loss on global power or even regional power would also open up space of Kazakhstan to keep growing in the region, which would mean that a more western aligned Kazakhstan would replace Russia as the regional power in Central/ Northern Asia. Kazakhstan has been following slowly in the footsteps of the liberal world order and generally thinks favorably of Europe. With Kazakhstan as the primary power in the region, western influence over the world would have increased in comparison to western influence with an aggressive Russia leading the region.

Russia's defeat while acting as advantageous for China in the form of a completely codependent neighbor to fully exploit in the near future for resources and cheap labor, nevertheless places China at a disadvantage of having no strong allies, and being surrounded by neutral partners who are willing to trade with China but completely unwilling to be influence by Chinese ideals or culture. On the global stage the defeat of Russia worsens the position of China as no anti-west aligned nation state is now going to believe that they can defeat the west with Chinese backing. Any country that was unwilling to take a side, or worried about China being the future dominant power would be more likely to side with the west and its ideals in the future. Which once again pushes the world towards further westernization, with ever more countries being counted as part of the western led world order.

China is also unlikely to carry on the invasion of Taiwan, as they see the outcome of modern warfare for one of the most powerful non western military in the world. As China fails to form successful long term partnerships with strong nation states, the space for them to keep expanding decreases over time. This means a further decline of China in the future as their GDP growth rate falls below that of the US as their economic network reaches its limits.

The only possible winning move left for China is if India were to align with it but that is no longer possible due to China occupying thousands of kilometers of Indian land. In the work space or the study of human psychology space this personality is referred to the kind of person who snatches up whatever they can take, but most often these people fail in life as they burn up too many bridges over time. China similarly, is a smart man who has burned too many bridges and continues to burn too many bridges to ever reach the top of the world.

The decline of China also pretty much guarantees a west aligned India that continues to further westernize over time and has the majority of Indians immigrating to the western world.

Conclusion:

Russia is almost guaranteed to lose the war. Russia's loss means the anti-west aligned alliance/ network is going to collapse in on itself. Further westernization will continue. China is going to fall further into decline. India will end up aligning with the west and westernizing over time.