South Korea's declining fertility rate proves that there is no safe bottom floor to fertility decline.

South Korea's fertility rate is already down to 0.72 and declining. At those rates South Korea is losing 66% of its population every generation. The worst part is that South Korea's fertility rate still has not stabilized and is continuing to go down year on year. At current trajectories we can expect South Korea's population to fall below 10 million people by the end of the century.

Similarly we are seeing the population fertility rate continue to decline in all populations across the world with no bottom level at which the fertility decline stops.

Africa's fertility rate while far higher than the rest of the world is consistently going down as well. The US, one of the most stable rich nation states in the world, also has its fertility rate going down over time, showing us that in the best case scenario, developed nation states can hold the line for a decade at a time at most.

Israel today remains one of two developed nation state with a higher than replacement fertility rate, and even Israel continues to lower in fertility year on year, with Saudi Arabia barely two to three years away from falling below replacement fertility levels as well.

If we are to look at nation states by population, China and India, the only two 1 billion plus population nation states, are both below replacement rate and continuing to decline over time.

The US as the third largest population nation state also remains below replacement rate, and Indonesia the fourth largest population country is the first nation on the list to have an above replacement fertility rate, with its fertility rate expected to fall below replacement as well in another decade at most. This leaves us with Pakistan as the first nation state in the population list with a fertility rate above 3, which is expected to fall below replacement levels in another 20-30 years. We see a similar trend for all high fertility high population nation states, where we can expect all of them to fall below replacement levels before 30 years are out at most.

That is to say, demographically, the world is going to continue to decline in terms of global fertility for at least the next 30 years, and far more likely to continue to decline until it reaches at least 1.5 fertility rate, as this appears to be the point where most developed nation states managed to stabilize for long periods of time. The global fertility rate falls about .3 point every 12 years which means we can expect the global fertility rate to go below replacement before 2035, and we can expect the global fertility rate to have a chance of stabilizing around 1.5 by the year 2060. It is however far more likely that by 2060 the global fertility rate will not stop at 1.5, but simply slow down and continue to crawl its way towards 1.3 and then 1.1. As the global fertility rates continue to decline year on year, the only winning strategy appears to be slowing down the decline by passing policies that accrue benefits to married couples with children such as parental leave and childcare support as part of national policy. These policies come nowhere close to reversing fertility trends in any meaningful manner, but tend to slow down population collapse by another 2-5 years every time such a policy is passed focusing on providing more support to couples with children.

These continually declining demographics force the world and its countries between two choices, either to continue to provide more and more benefits to people with children over time, or to make people responsible for having their own kids, with no additional support from the government. As we can see based on global trends, nation states that make the couple responsible for their children with no support in the form of parental leave or childcare costs being subsidized, tend to do far worse in terns of the population of children being born than more individualistic nation states that support providing support to people with children and give them enough time to raise their families.

Generally there is a negative correlation between a nation state having a developed economy and a nation state having lots of children. The US being the first developed economy without any future collapse, has done impressively well in keeping its fertility rate as high as they have. Any developed nation states with a fertility rate below that of the US are obviously implementing worse systems of governance and policies which guarantee their future failure in comparison to the US. If you are a nation state with a fertility rate below that of the US, you have no future. As the US itself with a fertility rate of 1.7 is only able to function due to being the number one nation state at assimilating useful immigrants from across the world.

As of now, there are 77 territories across the world that are currently set to fail as they have a fertility rate below that of the US. As global fertility rate continues to decline and nation rates continue to go down as well across the world, it is far more likely than not that the number of nation states with no future are only going to keep increasing over time. This is primarily due to the fact that the way the US is set up, their demographic trends shift far slower than the rest of the world. There will come a point within the next decade or two where the US will have a higher fertility rate than Mexico over time. We can similarly expect a point in time where the Israeli and Saudi Arabian fertility rate will one day be lower than that of the US.

Conclusion:

The global population growth rate is doomed. All developed nation states over time end up with fertility rates below those of the US. Only the US immigration policy is successful enough to survive the 1.7 fertility rate it is stuck at. The US is the most stable demographic nation in the world. As all developed economies have fertility rates that fall below the US, the US is going to remain the last man standing in a world where the population growth rate never recovers. The easiest way for the US to win is to make the rest of the world developed, which ensures all other nation states will be declining faster than the US over time.

The rest of the world is not designed to be able to handle and survive modernization as it is not possible to do so without opening yourself up to immigration from across the world, which 70-80% of the non-western world is culturally incapable of. Even Singapore knows this.

Xenophobic nation states will fail. Negative immigration rate nation states will fail. Nation states stuck with fertility rates below that of the US will fail. Nation states with declining populations will fail.

That is the case because the US has figured out how to not fall into any of these categories.

By these standards the nation states that are going to survive are:

1. USA

2. Brazil

3. France

4. UK

5. South Africa

6. Argentina

7. Iraq

8. Angola

9. Malaysia

10. Saudi Arabia

Germany almost makes it so it is possible Germany will be holding by a thread.

Nation states with populations below 30 million not counted.

Globally these 10 nation states will accrue power and influence over the next 30 years. South America is going to once again become relevant to global affairs and global trade within the next 30 years.

We can expect USA to hold first place.

Brazil will end up being the central power in South America where South America is emptying into along with the US and Europe.

Argentina has a 50-50 chance of holding relevance of falling into decline as Brazil out competes it.

France is steady and healthy a developed economy even with their strange ways.

UK remains a healthy nation state that is going to survive the future even as it loses overall influence. It's population is going to keep going up year on year and it will retain power at levels similar to France.

South Africa survives as being far more advanced than any other nation states around it which means loads of immigration to South Africa from the rest of Africa.

Iraq has been colonized and is ruled by people meant to favor the west. They will grow in time into a western ally if they aren't already.

No idea what's up with Angola, the numbers state its a healthy economy.

Malaysia is a healthy economy that is growing well. It will remain a relevant country in the future.

Saudi Arabia is a major middle east power. For all intents and purposes it is a developed monarchy and arabs keep immigrating to the region. Saudi Arabia is going to become western aligned over time and will westernize over time as that is what the monarch wants for all intents and appearances.

These will be the powerhouses of the world by the end of the century:

USA ( North America )

Brazil ( South America )

South Africa ( Sub Saharan Africa )

Saudi Arabia ( Middle East )

France/ UK ( West Europe/ European Union )

Malaysia ( South East Asia )

Expect the regional territories around these countries to depopulate over time while these countries continue to grow in population.

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