The age of political Islam is coming to an end.

Today, the largest Islamic population in the world lives in Indonesia, practicing a form of Islam which is completely disconnected from the variants known to the western world. An Islam which is far more tolerant than the Islam found under Wahhabi Islam and most versions found around the middle east, the land that is the cradle of Islam as per the western world.

The most aggressive versions of Islam in the current day are to be found in Africa, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, even though just a decade ago the middle east gave birth to organizations such as the Islamic State and has Hamas and Hezbollah still active in the region.

The reason for this is quite unsurprising, the extremist elements of middle eastern Islam have been taking losses since 9/11 or quite possibly even earlier, not just from western operations, but from monarchs and government leaders that want their nation state to grow economically over time. While in the middle east the general populace at times might be in favor of the terrorist organizations that work against the west, the leaders of these governments hold power that does not reach to the people, allowing them to perform actions that might not be considered favorable to the public. This has at times resulted in events that the liberal west might find devastating such as the failure of the arab spring movement to democratize the middle east, but at the same time has also guaranteed that the divide exists between the people and their leaders in the west which makes them align towards where the money is to keep their positions of power, which is currently the west.

In Egypt we see an extreme hatred for the Islamic brotherhood, which ensures that the more extremist versions of Islam have no space to grow in the country. In Morocco we find ourselves faced with a strong western ally, more than willing to cooperate and maintain good ties. Algeria's relations with Europe have always been middling due to having to deal with France, but for the most part Algeria is ambivalent and very unlikely to do anything aggressive against the west at any point in the future. Tunisia and Libya and within the sphere of influence of the west. Thus the North African version of Islamist extremism has died out due to the regions alliances and long term experiences dealing with the west.

In the case of Saudi Arabia, which was famous for spreading Wahhabi Islam across the world, the leadership of the region has found itself in low level conflict with the theocracy, as the Monarchs know that a strengthening theocracy means a weakening Monarchy as the theocrats have a real possibility of turning on the Royal family. Saudi Arabia thus under the influence of the family ruling it, has focused on becoming more and more liberal over time, superseding conservative Islamic ideals in hopes of modernizing the state over time. Yemen on the other hand remains strongly conservative Islamic due to the invasion and destruction of Yemen leading to liberalization becoming an impossible ask of the people. Syria meanwhile continues to grow more stable over time, the wars within the region making it more difficult for extremist groups to spread outside of the country as they are too busy fighting within. Places like Oman, UAE, and Qatar are already in the western sphere of influence, making any anti-western attacks from the region extremely unlikely.

Finally, we look at Iran, the only real remaining Islamic rival state to the west. Iran has a population that is already against its theocratic organizations, and the Iranian elite have to actively shuffle their legs as slow as they can towards further liberalization of the region to placate the masses. The very extreme versions of Islam ruling the Iranian territories are those that are hated by the very people who live under it. This again makes it difficult for Iranian version of conservative Islam to survive into the future. Alongside this, in the case of Lebanon and Gaza, the Israeli people go out of their way to destroy the terrorist organizations within these regions root and stem.

It is in this manner that we can see that the more extreme versions of Islam are dying out across North Africa and the middle east. Which creates conditions under which practiced Islam becomes ever more akin to practiced Christianity over time, where it is more like a personal preference than a way of life being spread across the world. With the only characteristic differences left between the people at the end of the day being that one prays in one kind of building and another prays in another kind of building.

The liberalization of the middle eastern and North African Islamic order is pretty much guaranteed at this point in time due to the above mentioned factors. With the last remnants of extremist Islam having shifted to Taliban controlled Afghanistan, poor people with nothing else to hold on to Pakistan, and killing random villages of Christians Sub-Saharan Africa. At the end of the day, in the long term we can expect these regions to be placated as well over time. Pakistan through Chinese influence. Afghanistan through its constant failures at its most conservative forcing it to liberalize as slowly as humanly possible. It is likely that either Afghanistan or Sub Saharan Africa will remain the last bastion of Islamic religious extremism, with Afghanistan being the more likely contender as they had to fight a decades long war to hold on to their religious values which makes them feel like heroes trying to save their ways long after those ways have begun to fail them.

Conclusion:

Pan Arab state will never happen as the region is too divided. Islam is going to continue to liberalize through the decades as syncing up with the west is the easiest way to make money and as more extreme variants of practiced political Islam continue to hold the state and its people back from a good life time and time again. Afghanistan will be the last extremist Islamic state in the world.

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