China is never going to surpass the US. It would have to grow at a rate higher than 4% every single year to have its GDP surpass 50 trillion USD by 2049, which is the goal year that the Chinese government has set for when they must become a prosperous developed economy. Their 2035 goal of being a highly developed middle income economy is far more likely to actually happen. It is very difficult to nearly impossible to double your GDP with a declining population. Especially when you are not a little country like Lithuania that is part of a far larger economic alliance.
Israel is going to win the war in the middle east and defeat Lebanon and take it to the stone age similar to what they did with Gaza right now. The Israeli's are not backing down on further aggression at all and are likely to not stop until and unless they meet a force strong and aggressive enough to actually hurt them. Israel honestly believes it is still in their interests to keep aggressively moving as far as they can until they are stopped by force. Gaza failed to stop them. Lebanon failed to stop them. Syria failed to stop them. Iran came the closest by launching 200 missiles but have been failing so far as well which suggests that Israel is going to keep escalating for another year.
Poland has succeeded in fulfilling its destiny of being the center of Eastern Europe. It grows at a healthy rate and is guaranteed to continue to do so for decades to come. Poland is guaranteed to become one of the trillion dollar economies of the world. Maybe even surpass Russia one day based on how things are going.
Russia is economically fricked in the future. Russia has suffered some of the greatest losses in a war in its history till date. On top of that Russia continues to suffer from a declining population. Russia has no reliable ally in China and its closest friend now is North Korea, on whom it relies to provide the majority of its artillery right now until North Korea also runs low on ammo. The primary advantage that Russia has is that NATO never directly attacked Russia and so they have an actual chance of having a stalemate against Ukraine where they get to keep the territories that they hold, but only if Russia does not collapse from within before that. Russia is not going to have an active revolution within the country until and unless food prices cross survivable levels. Anything before that is just a loss in the daily quality of life which the people must adapt to.
Canada has no meaningful future beyond existing either as another state of the US or an independent country that continues to lose influence over time existing on the periphery of the US. The Canadian government has bet all of its future on importing as many Indians as humanly possible in the hopes that the gains in population will result in gains in income over time. By the look of things Canada is not going to find much success with the current policy when it comes to immigration and is just barely delaying the fallout by a few years constantly.
The Palestinian state is never going to form and Gaza has been completely destroyed/ taken over by Israel. The Israeli's are not going to leave Gaza until they have a guarantee that it is governed by somebody they trust which isn't going to happen. Israel is going to aggressively occupy Gaza for decades to come while slowly taking over Gazan territories year by year letting Jews populations move into the region and occupy homes like what happened in the west bank.
Japan is in the unique position where the income of the average Japanese continues to rise meanwhile the total GDP of the state remains in continual decline. Japan is in no position to rise up in any capacity and continues to lose relevance over time. It is set to be surpassed by India in terms of Nominal GDP in a few years at which point it no longer has enough influence to change anything on the world stage.
South Korea is a unique outlier in multiple ways as due to its heavy focus on automation it has been able to extend its GDP growth beyond the anticipated point of failure by decades. South Korea however also has some of the worst demographic transitions to come with the lowest fertility rate in the world and everybody expects them to begin collapsing when the actual decline hits in one to two more decades. South Korea is the equivalent of a country maxed out on technological advancements trying to survive on just that as its population declines at collapse rates.
Taiwan is the semiconductor capital of the world, supplying a major portion of high end semiconductors to the world along with leading when it comes to the cutting edge in the semiconductor industry. Taiwan's key position in the semiconductor industry is declining however compared to previous decades as both the US and China are barely a few years behind Taiwan's TMSC when it comes to semiconductor processes. Add in the fact that some of the TMSC factories have been moved to the US and it becomes quite clear that the loss of Taiwan to China would not be a world ending scenario for the global semiconductor market which would only be slowed down by 3-5 years. Taiwan is important to the global economy but it is no longer critical as alternatives exist even if they are a few years behind in terms of technical capabilities.
Saudi Arabia is undeniably a western aligned nation state. This idea was pretty much confirmed as fact when the whole world saw Saudi Arabia unwilling to criticize or break its dealings with Israel for its attacks on Gaza against HAMAS and now its attacks in Lebanon against Hezbollah. Saudi Arabia is pretty much guaranteed to become completely dependent on its investments into western nation states as the world reaches peak oil and loses its dependency on oil for energy production. We should see the Saudi Arabian economy begin to stagnate in another 2-3 decades as even now its attempts to control the oil market have only been partially successful, especially with the US becoming one of the major global oil suppliers in recent decades.
Iran continues to lose influence across the middle east as it fails to provide security guarantees to its proxies through which it attempts to attack Israel and other rivals in the middle east. Iran's failure to defend Hezbollah or cause any real harm to Israel pretty much guarantees a loss of reliance on Iran as a security guarantor in the region and we can expect any future growth of the Iranian economy to be completely based on the supply of funds and trade with China. Iran is very likely to go back to falling in decline as it suffers from sanctions from the west and cannot be supported by an ever weakening China all of whose allies are dependent on it for further funds.
Ukraine has been very successful in its defense of its country against Russian aggression compared to what was expected of Ukraine over the preceding years if Russia were to attack. Ukraine has not only successfully stalled the Russian military for years but also followed that up with occupying some territories within Russia. While Ukraine has suffered heavy losses and is unlikely to have a functional future due to its low birth rate along with its aged population, Ukraine has been a very useful proxy for the western world allowing for the weakening and future collapse of Russia without even having to actually invade Russia. The longer Russia is stalled in its invasion of Ukraine the worse its future becomes. Ukraine will never fully recover from this war, but nor will Russia ever catch up to its western rivals after this war. At the end of this war Russia will have lost global relevance thanks to the sacrifices made by Ukraine.
Mexico continues to suffer from the casualties of the wars among the drug cartels. Mexico is set up to become the Italy of North America, as the cartels are unlikely to ever die out due to conflict with the state, but far more likely to go straight over time as legit business enterprises become more profitable without the risk in the future as Mexico's economy continues to grow over time. Mexico remains the major route to supply unskilled labor to the US over time and should see a major decline in cartel violence as its GDP per capita crosses 20,000 USD in the future. Mexico should begin to stabilize as a nation state by 2030 and see continually declining violence after that. Mexico is also going to suffer from a labor shortage crisis in the years ahead ensuring ever increasing inflow of South Americans to North America over time.
Brazil is on a similar trajectory to Mexico only even further behind. Brazil is not a major enough player on the world stage for it to transform the face of the continent but is a powerful enough regional player for it to continue to grow feeding on the nation states around it. If we were to compare Brazil and Argentina, Brazil wins out and is going to become the dominant player on the continent over time. Over time the South American continent can be expected to be split into the East led by Chile and Colombia, and the West led by Brazil.
India continues to grow at a very healthy GDP growth rate. Sadly the country is kneecapped by previous decades of low GDP growth and being a closed planned economy. This has guaranteed that while India will become the third biggest economy in the world ( Excluding the European Union ), India is never going to surpass China or the US. India's primary challenge remains to not get bullied by China and to remain competitive against ASEAN. India will stay ahead of ASEAN and will not end up in an active war with China. On the other hand India's influence in global politics will remain limited with the exception of its influence on migration with most of the west becoming dependent on India to supply the labor required to act as the backbone of the country.
Indonesia is well on its way to become the center of the Islamic world as the Islam practiced by Indonesia is comparatively more moderate along with being the Islamic country with the largest population. Once the middle east stabilizes and people stop equating it with Islam the logical capital of Islam is the middle east as it practices a form of Islam that can far better integrate with the rest of the world and grow economically due to not being as dependent on slave labor equivalents and not being dependent on outside expertise to the same degree as middle eastern nation states to get things done. Indonesia is in the position to become the fourth biggest economy in the world if it plays its cards right, and at the very least guaranteed to end up in the top 10.
The US will remain the strongest economy throughout the century. This was guaranteed the moment China began to fumble and its GDP growth rate showed signs of going below 5% in the future. The US remaining the strongest economy in the world guarantees that the US will not change in any major way in the future as what the US currently is already works. The US will continue to expand its welfare network at current rates and continue to see a drop in the quality of education of its native US born population, along with continued dependency on immigration. Expect the US population to cross 440 million by 2100 along with being a major player in the collapse of Russia, Iran, North Korea, Cuba, and stagnation of China. The Us by 2050 will be the welfare state equivalent of Europe in the 2000s or 2010s.
Germany is going to remain relevant only through its connection to the EU and its unofficial leadership of the European Union. Germany's population will continue to grow at a glacial rate through the expansion of the EU and increased migration of new states towards Germany. It will remain the largest economy in the EU and will not be overtaken by France. As the rest of the major EU economies cannot keep up, the EU will become split between Germany and Poland as the leading players of the EU.
France keeps slowing down and weakening ever so slowly at rates which make it hard for people to feel the decline of France over time or even when looking at a graph, but France is indeed weakening and slowing down, well on its way to join Spain and Italy as the declining states of the EU. France has become another state which would fail without the EU and would fail very slowly even with the EU. France has reached its cultural peak and people would now rather become German than become French. France's future position in the EU will be taken up by Poland, acting as the center of the EU in the eastern half, balancing out Germany in the west and thus providing a functional body to the EU instead of one that weakens the further east you go.
Italy is the weakest major player in the EU. Italy in its current form has no real future and the moment even the right wing anti-immigrant government comes into power, they look at the numbers and how things are going for Italy and open themselves up to further immigration, because even they know that Italy will fail if immigrants don't flow in. The young population of Italy is trying to leave Italy, which is honestly embarrassing as that is the success story of youth populations from poor nation states, but Italy has managed to place itself in such a position where it has nothing to show for future growth and its peak is definitely behind it. Italian culture peaked and failed to keep up with the future. They are not worthy of respect. Their culture will be forgotten as it shows no capacity to be successful in the real world.
UK economy is well on its way to grow at slower rates than the German economy. It's economy is barely keeping up with its population growth rate and is in a similar position to Canada when it comes to future prospects. UK has the option of failing in the future by itself or joining back into the EU in the future and fading away slow enough for people to not really notice. The UK was in the past dependent on being a major banking hub of the world but it is no longer enough as the banking system has also globalized and more economically beneficial industries have arisen over the years which the UK failed to lead in. No country with a GDP smaller than that of India can be considered an actual global power and all of these economies are set to decline by the end of the century. It would be a miracle if the UK manages to not split apart via vote by the end of the century.
Conclusion:
All the world that has a GDP below that of India is guaranteed to fail in the end. Every nation state below it is either too low in population to ever be a major player on the board, or it too economically weak to ever have the required influence to change the world. This is why the EU as an entity has a future, but none of the nation states within it by themselves do. The 22nd century will be led by the US, China, India, and the EU as long as none of these entities collapse from internal problems.
By 2030, Only the US, China, and India are going to be relevant countries on the world stage.
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