If we compare overall PISA (Programme for International Student Assessment) scores of China and the US, China comes out 9.3% ahead of the US. This might seem like a big number but in practice this is a big enough number that makes it possible for China to completely surpass the US no matter what moves the US makes.
The reason for this is simple. It is akin to 115-130 IQ person competing with a 100 IQ person and both are going all out. The 115-130 IQ person is obviously going to win barring a car accident.
The intelligence gap also makes China smart enough to create the next generation of global technology where the US has hit the wall. China already owns Epic Games ( the company with the most used video game engine in current year ), and has already taken over the minds of the American zoomer with Chinese content. Today, when a US company wants to make an actually successful product for the market, they go to the Chinese.
Singapore for comparison is 14.3% smarter than the US, and while being a very small tiny Island nation, has a quality of life and Per capita PPP income that is 71% higher than that of the average American. Which is to say, small percentage superiority in intelligence has very vast real world effects.
China is 32% smarter than Mongolia, which guarantees that China is going to own Mongolia no matter what happens.
China is also guaranteed to dominate Russia and South East Asia and practically own them.
Conclusion:
The Chinese have become too smart to stop and had too high a starting population. Which means they are going to completely dominate global trade followed by surpassing Europe and the US in nominal GDP terms followed by surpassing these territories by nominal per capita GDP terms.
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Remember that US is fricking 13% BIPOCs. I can imagine that success probabilities look different when you have multimodal distributions. It's also important to consider the fricking number of great men for breakthrough innovation. US has more jews and people like elon musk.
I would say the fricking same about singapore. One big reason they are so fricking great is fricking because they had one of the fricking greatest autocrats of all time.
RE Mongolia: They are fricking actually one of the fricking very few asian populations that have above-replacement tfr, so there is a fricking good chance they'll grow in power in a fricking few decades
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wrong.
https://wcipeg.com/etc/brian/China_IQ_by_province.svg
If you removed BIPOCs from the US, IQ would only rise to 99.
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