House Racist
@pizzashill's profile picture @pizzashill's hat
pizzashill they/them Subject matter expertise: foid identity extremism  3d ago (twitter.com) 1,107 thread views #287132
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could fluffing rfk blow up in the magatards face?

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1816546418431234335
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Polls are meaningless, Pizza. Too many people like me lie to pollsters.

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you're right, we don't have over 50 years of data to determine how accurate polling is.

What world do you people live in lol.

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Who did the polls predict in 2016? :marseysmug2:

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the polls were literally within margin of error in 2016 lmao. To prove my point about the weird r-slurred mythology you guys engage in because you don't understand basic statistics:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-just-a-normal-polling-error-behind-clinton/

Even at the end of a presidential campaign, polls don't perfectly predict the final margin in the election. Sometimes the final polls are quite accurate. An average of national polls in the week before the 2008 election had Barack Obama winning by 7.6 percentage points. He won by 7.3 points. Sometimes, however, the polls miss by more. Four years ago, an average of survey results the week before the election had Obama winning by 1.2 percentage points. He actually beat Mitt Romney by 3.9 points.

If that 2.7-point error doesn't sound like very much to you, well, it's very close to what Donald Trump needs to overtake Hillary Clinton in the popular vote. She leads by 3.3 points in our polls-only forecast.

On average, the polls have been off by 2 percentage points, whether because the race moved in the final days or because the polls were simply wrong. In many elections, the race isn't so close, the leader in the polls goes on to win and few people notice the difference between the final polling and election margin. But when the election is close, a few percentage points can matter.

2016 has a standard polling error, rightoids turn it into some weird belief that polling is now fake because they're all poorly educated.

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!math !r-slurs never forget that Nate "30 pieces of" Silver said in Aug 2015 that Trump had a 2% chance of winning the Republican Nomination

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17219417424503913.webp

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/

@pizzashill :#faggot: just accept that margin of error means nothing when sampling is jewed to favor a certain narrative and stop pretending that you know anything about statistics

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Never forget this has no relevance to the accuracy of polling. In fact the part you left out of this comment was nate ignored polling in that 2%.

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Okay, here it is. In August 2016, the betting markets, literally crowd wisdom put Clinton at 79% and Trump at 21%. Meanwhile, Nate Silver put it at ~85% using his data hocus pocus

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17219425332097044.webp

https://www.insider.com/politics/nate-silver-theres-still-a-15-chance-that-donald-trump-could-be-our-next-president/articleshow/53833727.cms

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Sliver and 538 did a last minute "here is how Trump can win" and covered his butt a bit

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Nate was 6% off the crowd and that was right before the "basket of deplorables" gaffe that probably cost her the Midwest

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I didn't read either comment but I stand with pizzashill

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margin of error

https://i.rdrama.net/images/1721942051273334.webp

!friendsofpizzashill

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https://i.rdrama.net/images/1721941642592977.webp

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When you retreat to argue about the popular vote, you know you're coping.

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lol..? the popular vote is in fact correlated with the electoral college. for example someone that wins the popular vote by 2.5%-3% is basically invariably going to also win the electoral college.

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:marseylibright: :marseywheeze: :marseysmug6: :marseytypinglaugh: :turtoiserofl: :marseytrollolol: :mjlol: :marseyrofl::marseylaugh: :marseylaughpoundfist:

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I'm not reading all that you fricking nerd. Margin of error on these nuts b-word

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>margin of error in these nuts

:#arousedpizzashill:

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we don't have over 50 years of data to determine how accurate polling is.

Thanks for telling us you failed statistics class in high school

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Is this satire

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You're r-slurred

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>polls :!marseyno:

>betting markets :!marseyyes:

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Betting markets were more wrong in 2020 than any poll lmao

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Betting markets were more wrong in 2020 than any poll lmao

Than any poll?

Betting markets closely called the electoral college amount and properly estimated Florida's republican win (which polls didn't). Nate Silver had Trump winning Florida at 31% while betting markets had it at 59%

https://fortune.com/2020/11/19/betting-gambling-prediction-markets-2020-election-polls/

Betting markets called the presidential election more accurately than polls

Those same betting odds forecasted that Biden would win the election with 310 electoral college votes, according to US-Bookies, despite some polls predicting a momentous landslide that would have given Biden as many as 350 electoral votes. With the winner now called in all 50 states, Biden will end up winning the White House with 306 electoral votes, just shy of betting markets' 310-vote projection.

Betting odds appeared to provide a more realistic reflection of the dynamics in states like Florida, which Trump won handily despite many polls giving Biden an edge going into the election. While polls had Biden ahead by roughly 1% on average in Florida, according to RealClearPolitics, oddsmakers gave Trump 8-to-13 oddsโ€”or a 62% implied probabilityโ€”of carrying the state, per US-Bookies.

If betting markets are more wrong than -any- poll then you have a fantastic opportunity to make some money. How much in bets have you placed with this?

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betting markets claimed donald trump had a 20% to win AFTER HE LOST THE ELECTION LMAO.

It gave Trump an 80% to win after he had clearly lost the election on election night.

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During-event betting can be much more irrational.

That's going to be much less of an issue over the long term leading up to the election. As the above analysis shows the pre event markets were better than the polls.

We can revisit this the night before the election.

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