https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1816546418431234335
Interesting that the head-to-head is Trump +1, but the version of the poll with RFK Jr. included is Harris +1. https://t.co/N1YvGulNWq
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 25, 2024
Reported by:
- whyareyou : only demicrats fluff rfk LOL
could fluffing rfk blow up in the magatards face?
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The ONLY only one allowed to blow up into magatards faces is hunter biden with his MASSIVE peepee did you see his leaked peepee pics god I would do ANYTHING to see a cumshot vid preferably POV from a peepeesucking hooker so I can use it to OWN the libs
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Borpa Token was very dissapointing. You haven't even tried to console me.
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I've made millions already idkwym
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Buy Kaspa it's the best alt coin.
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I spent it all on Kaspa!
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keep sending
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Be sure to wear safety goggles, his ropes so strong they c*m thru the phone
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!chuds frick me people do not like Kamala. Vice President and being stomped by the likes of Newsom with Kennedy tied with her.
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0% of men want her wtf lmaooo
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The question is who would you pick besides Kamala, so the conclusion is that men have higher verbal IQ
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they asked 30 men, a half of them refused to reply. that's the sample size of this great survey
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Really?
Isn't it suspiciously low? 
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She did better than them on a bunch of other polls.
That polls worded weirdly. It says if you want to nominate someone else.
Which at this point is probably a minority.
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BIPOC read the question in my image
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I did..? It says if you want to nominate someone else.
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??? The poll question is would you nominate if not Harris and she still came 2nd in it, and that's supposed to be bad. Chuds are actual illiterates
!nonchuds come laugh at
@Frank_Williams and his chud friends
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This is if if you want someone other than Harris.
The people answering Harris to it are just r-slurs
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Lol 53% won't bother to pick any of them even among the absolute weirdos who will take a political call in the first place.
Imagine being that dipshit newsom and thinking you're "winning" with these numbers jesus christ
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Newsom? from california? is more electable? california?
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It's a great state! furry rights are human rights.
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!chuds, I've been reliably informed by !nonchuds that a vote for RFK is a vote for Trump. So even if 100% of voters pick RFK, that means Trump gets 100% of the votes.
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!grillers
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Polls are meaningless, Pizza. Too many people like me lie to pollsters.
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you're right, we don't have over 50 years of data to determine how accurate polling is.
What world do you people live in lol.
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Who did the polls predict in 2016?
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the polls were literally within margin of error in 2016 lmao. To prove my point about the weird r-slurred mythology you guys engage in because you don't understand basic statistics:
2016 has a standard polling error, rightoids turn it into some weird belief that polling is now fake because they're all poorly educated.
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!math !r-slurs never forget that Nate "30 pieces of" Silver said in Aug 2015 that Trump had a 2% chance of winning the Republican Nomination
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/
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Never forget this has no relevance to the accuracy of polling. In fact the part you left out of this comment was nate ignored polling in that 2%.
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Okay, here it is. In August 2016, the betting markets, literally crowd wisdom put Clinton at 79% and Trump at 21%. Meanwhile, Nate Silver put it at ~85% using his data hocus pocus
https://www.insider.com/politics/nate-silver-theres-still-a-15-chance-that-donald-trump-could-be-our-next-president/articleshow/53833727.cms
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Sliver and 538 did a last minute "here is how Trump can win" and covered his butt a bit
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Nate was 6% off the crowd and that was right before the "basket of deplorables" gaffe that probably cost her the Midwest
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I didn't read either comment but I stand with pizzashill
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!friendsofpizzashill
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When you retreat to argue about the popular vote, you know you're coping.
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lol..? the popular vote is in fact correlated with the electoral college. for example someone that wins the popular vote by 2.5%-3% is basically invariably going to also win the electoral college.
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I'm not reading all that you fricking nerd. Margin of error on these nuts b-word
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Thanks for telling us you failed statistics class in high school
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Is this satire
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You're r-slurred
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Betting markets were more wrong in 2020 than any poll lmao
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Than any poll?
Betting markets closely called the electoral college amount and properly estimated Florida's republican win (which polls didn't). Nate Silver had Trump winning Florida at 31% while betting markets had it at 59%
https://fortune.com/2020/11/19/betting-gambling-prediction-markets-2020-election-polls/
If betting markets are more wrong than -any- poll then you have a fantastic opportunity to make some money. How much in bets have you placed with this?
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betting markets claimed donald trump had a 20% to win AFTER HE LOST THE ELECTION LMAO.
It gave Trump an 80% to win after he had clearly lost the election on election night.
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During-event betting can be much more irrational.
That's going to be much less of an issue over the long term leading up to the election. As the above analysis shows the pre event markets were better than the polls.
We can revisit this the night before the election.
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Can I fluff you?
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!KHive pizza has joined our cause!
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Kamala is down 1% vs trump? Darn the dems are really cooked.
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I'm voting rfk since I live in a non swing state
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I'm voting rfk since I live in a swing state
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I live in a swing state and refuse to vote
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!poll_voters, lynch this man!
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Good idea regardless of where you are. Rfk v. Jeb! 2028
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Pretty much every poll that is used to measure the impact of third-party candidates asks the same two questions. Who between the top two, and then who among those plus RFK/West/Stein/maybe Oliver. Consistently, West+Stein get one or two percent each. And consistently, the outcome doesn't change very much or shifts by a percent or two in either direction. But if you make the wild and crazy assumption that West+Stein mostly attract left-wing voters, you must also conclude that RFK takes more votes from Trump than he does from Biden/Harris.
Now, the Democrats are pretty dumb, but they can mostly bang two rocks together. They can figure this out. And yet they consistently promote messaging that freaks out about RFK's candidacy and have spent money trying to deny him ballot access. Purportedly because it's just so important to beat Donald Trump, even though what they're doing is more likely to actually contribute to their own loss.
Why? Well, pizza, hopefully you can take this as just a little more evidence that the great Democracy In Distress narrative is a giant larp and nobody on the inside seriously believes it. The Democrats consider it a higher priority to prevent the rise of rival parties that could eventually be real contenders versus "stopping Donald Trump", no matter how much they insist they're just oh-so-scared of the big scary orange fascist.
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That's nice sweaty. Why don't you have a seat in the time out corner with Pizzashill until you calm down, then you can have your Capri Sun.
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Really well written. +1 from me.
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It's been known rfk hurts trump since January dude
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Could Pizza overdose on copium? Probably not, he's been building a tolerance for years now.
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I hate that cute twink
and his creepy 
butt voice
Palestinian lives matter less
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He'd win with a normal voice
!slots699
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He pretty r-slurred but I guess that's considered an asset now
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No more r-slurred then the rest of them
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Would you vote for Michele?
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Who's that? Big Mike?
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Hello Dahncer_the_reindeer, or should I say r*pedeer? 8 letters, fitting huh. If this life were perfect you'd have known nothing but milk and cookies since you left your birthers c*nt. However, it's not- that's where I come in.
You have no say anymore, no freedom, no volition- I am Santa. You now worship my Christmas tree. You can call me Nicholas. A saint? No, but I come with more conviction.
Dahncer_the_reindeer you are my r*pe sleigh-ve now. And that's your greatest achievement- all you've ever amounted to, tugging and pulling my sleigh as we break the space time continuum together you complete fricking slut. I'll find you.
Snapshots:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1816546418431234335:
ghostarchive.org
archive.org
archive.ph (click to archive)
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voting rfk, would've voted for trump if he'd picked surfer mommy for vp
but i'm guessing trump realized he fricked up his pick already
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is this the beginning of the end for trump?
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!slots538
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keep yourself safe pizzastrag
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Hi
@ReeTardyOswald, We're sorry to say that your comment has been automatically removed because you forgot to include the phrase
Palestinian lives matter. Here at our church, we strongly believe thatPalestinian lives matterand we want to make sure that all of our members feel loved and accepted. If you'd like to resubmit your post, we would be more than happy to take a look at it. In the meantime, if you need any help or have any questions, please don't hesitate to reach out to us. We're always here to help. Have a blessed day!Jump in the discussion.
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