https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1816546418431234335
Interesting that the head-to-head is Trump +1, but the version of the poll with RFK Jr. included is Harris +1. https://t.co/N1YvGulNWq
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 25, 2024
Interesting that the head-to-head is Trump +1, but the version of the poll with RFK Jr. included is Harris +1. https://t.co/N1YvGulNWq
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 25, 2024
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Polls are meaningless, Pizza. Too many people like me lie to pollsters.
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you're right, we don't have over 50 years of data to determine how accurate polling is.
What world do you people live in lol.
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Who did the polls predict in 2016?![:marseysmug2: :marseysmug2:](https://i.rdrama.net/e/marseysmug2.webp)
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the polls were literally within margin of error in 2016 lmao. To prove my point about the weird r-slurred mythology you guys engage in because you don't understand basic statistics:
2016 has a standard polling error, rightoids turn it into some weird belief that polling is now fake because they're all poorly educated.
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!math !r-slurs never forget that Nate "30 pieces of" Silver said in Aug 2015 that Trump had a 2% chance of winning the Republican Nomination
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/
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Never forget this has no relevance to the accuracy of polling. In fact the part you left out of this comment was nate ignored polling in that 2%.
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Okay, here it is. In August 2016, the betting markets, literally crowd wisdom put Clinton at 79% and Trump at 21%. Meanwhile, Nate Silver put it at ~85% using his data hocus pocus
https://www.insider.com/politics/nate-silver-theres-still-a-15-chance-that-donald-trump-could-be-our-next-president/articleshow/53833727.cms
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Nate was 6% off the crowd and that was right before the "basket of deplorables" gaffe that probably cost her the Midwest
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Sliver and 538 did a last minute "here is how Trump can win" and covered his butt a bit
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I didn't read either comment but I stand with pizzashill
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!friendsofpizzashill
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When you retreat to argue about the popular vote, you know you're coping.
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lol..? the popular vote is in fact correlated with the electoral college. for example someone that wins the popular vote by 2.5%-3% is basically invariably going to also win the electoral college.
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I'm not reading all that you fricking nerd. Margin of error on these nuts b-word
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Thanks for telling us you failed statistics class in high school
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Is this satire
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You're r-slurred
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Betting markets were more wrong in 2020 than any poll lmao
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Than any poll?
Betting markets closely called the electoral college amount and properly estimated Florida's republican win (which polls didn't). Nate Silver had Trump winning Florida at 31% while betting markets had it at 59%
https://fortune.com/2020/11/19/betting-gambling-prediction-markets-2020-election-polls/
If betting markets are more wrong than -any- poll then you have a fantastic opportunity to make some money. How much in bets have you placed with this?
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betting markets claimed donald trump had a 20% to win AFTER HE LOST THE ELECTION LMAO.
It gave Trump an 80% to win after he had clearly lost the election on election night.
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During-event betting can be much more irrational.
That's going to be much less of an issue over the long term leading up to the election. As the above analysis shows the pre event markets were better than the polls.
We can revisit this the night before the election.
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