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EFFORTPOST :marseysteer: Wake up neighbors Syrian Civil War is fricking BACK :dumstickdancer:

https://old.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1h22tcf/russian_fpv_operator_killed_in_syria_by/

								

								

DEAD RUSSIANS

https://i.rdrama.net/images/1732956901618463.webp

SPLODY PAGERS

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17329569017458582.webp

CAPTURED CITADELS

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17329569018657553.webp

INVADING TURKS

WHAT THE FRICK IS GOING ON :marseyaaat#remble:

Around 2014, shortly before I went to prison, the civil war in Syria was very fun to follow - the Ukraine or Israel of its day but less normie. It was in the sweet spot between these wars - very well reported, slow, and with a couple of cohesive factions - and jiggaboo hijinks in Africa where there are dozens of factions, zero cohesiveness, minimal information, and rapid butt movements and upsets because Russians came or a white man got mad.

Then I got out and shit was boring again. ISIS was gone, the rebels were cucked, and Assad had mostly won. How'd that happen?

:marseyinvisible: 2011-2012: Humble beginnings

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17329569019760647.webp

Bashar Assad, the Alawite leader of Syria, had brutally oppressed his people for many years. In Arab fashion, it took American glowies on X (at the time known as "twitter") to galvanize them into rebelling, which they did, mostly ineffectually, over 2011-2012.

Though their achievements were minimal, with every massacre and atrocity, Assad's grip over the population and business establishment weakened. This emboldened individuals and factions, and everyone (perceiving weakness) shifted from keeping their head down to aiming for a piece of the Syrian pie.

:marseyinvisible: 2013: Shit gets real

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17329569023826082.webp

Red is Assad, supported by the Alawites (inhabiting the coast, mostly), secularish and nationalist Syrians, certain classes of society like Sunni businessmen who supported him pragmatically, various Sunnis in his patronage network, and regular people either coerced or cajoled into it.

He was backed by Iran in exchange for further influence, an open lane to supply its Shiite proxies, like Hezbollah (via Iraq), and as a geopolitical ally and counterweight to the western gulf states. Also, to a lesser extent, by Russia (who operate a port in Syria), China and other contrarians.

Green is almost everyone else: dozens of armed groups with grandiose names and wide-ranging political views, from moderate Islamists to hardcore Islamists. You think I'm kidding. No joke, every single Sunni Arab anti-Assad group at the time had some flavor of Islamic flavoring. The "moderate" guys wore short beards, listened to music and took American funds while beheading Alawites whereas the hardcore guys beheaded music listeners and moderates too :marseyladybugshrug:

The rebels held the suburbs - but not centers - of Damascus (capital) and Aleppo (second biggest city), the rural north (Sunni and neglected under Assad) and various positions in between. They were supported by wealthy gulf donors, Turkey, who gave them a free hand to cross the border and engage in commerce, and western powers like America and Europe. Like any non-state group they engaged in their fair share of smuggling, petty crime, taxation and tolls.

Yellow are the Kurds, who varied politically and religiously but always put their Kurdishness first. Initially, they were anti-Assad due to years of oppression, etc. but seeing how the Islamists treated them turned them more pragmatic. Poor guys, nobody except Israel likes them :(

There were also some Druze in the south, under the green faction for convenience.

:marseyinvisible: 2014: Rise-is of ISIS

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17329569027118316.webp

Some ex-al Qaeda members in Iraq, battle-hardened and bored, saw an opportunity in the power vacuum to free Sunnis from Assad, which in practice became freeing them from their more lenient Sunni overlords (rebel militias proving an easier target than a theoretically professional army). Within a few months, they bulldozed most of the Syrian rebel factions in the east, turning their sights onto and humiliating Iraq as well.

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17329569030372145.webp

At their height that winter ISIS was wrecking Arab armies everywhere and about to demolish Kobane / Ayn al Arab (one of the three Kurdish cantons). They did so much nasty shit there's no point in mentioning or cataloging it. IIKYK, if not, have a listicle I haven't read from google. Many locals felt some kinda way about their behavior but couldn't do much without getting beheaded. However, besides a huge number of foreign volunteers from shitholes like Chechnya and Tunisia, they also had local support from true believers, Shia-haters and those who appreciated unified governance over the mess of squabbling factions which had preceded it.

The Western reaction was wholly negative, so much so that even stodgy bureaucrats, Assad opponents, and kumbaya-singing libcucks from cowardly first world nations were galvanized into action. In September, 26 countries met in Paris and agreed to started bombing ISIS heavily; the US also bullied Turkey into letting the Kurds take their shit back.

:marseyinvisible: 2015: Meh

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17329569057999725.webp

Not much changed this year. Besides Kurdish successes, the rebels took Idlib and consolidated in the south with the Druze. Most of the rebel-Assad line of battle was very low intensity, like Ukraine today. Neither side had the manpower, weaponry or supplies to engage in a more serious manner. In Iraq, the jihadis suffered multiple serious defeats by Shiite paramilitaries and the army.

I'm mostly not covering other name and branding changes in this article but (since it might come up later) in exchange for American support the Kurds accepted some token Arab groups and rebranded as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in October.

:marseyinvisible: 2016: Two more weeks

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17329569082951145.webp

There was a ceasefire most of the first half of the year, everyone focussing on beating ISIS. You'll notice a large green swath in the south: a Jordanian-trained, Western-aligned, U.S.-led opposition group. When the greenbacks started coming in, they spun off from the Allahu Akbar brigade, traded bobbing their heads 5 times a day for a pair of raybans and never looked back. No bullshit, check the article, their predecessor organization was literally called that. 'Moderates' :marseyaware:

They remain there to this day.

The latter part of the year offensives ramped up against the jihadis.

:marseyinvisible: 2017: Bye-SIS

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17329569093219256.webp

Mainly Assad and the Kurds benefitted from pushing ISIS' shit in, with the exception of that small green slice up north: Erdogan's belated decision to establish a direct Turkish proxy instead of broadly supporting the opposition. That said, progress was slow as mutual enemies proceeded cautiously. That changed in July, when America and Russia agreed to a ceasefire to focus on the jihadis. Crucially, America agreed to stop funding and supplying most rebel groups. By then, ISIS had lost the north side of the Euphrates and many key positions, but still retained their capital, Raqqa, and significant territory within Syria and Iraq.

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17329569103793292.webp

By the end of the year that was gone too. The terrorists were defeated, and all they'd accompished in the long run was a transfer of Sunni Arab land to Alawites and Kurds.

:marseyinvisible: 2018: Tits-urkey and Butt-ad

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17329569106019998.webp

Turkey was pissed off at the success the Kurds were having and the fact PKK (Kurdish rebels from Turkey) fighters were a large part of the Kurdish army. Also, 3 to 4 million Syrian refugees had fled to Turkey, where they were causing societal issues !chuds and !nooticers might recognize. Consequently, they invaded Ifrin (the leftmost canton), kicked out the Kurds and resettled many refugees there.

Meanwhile Assad took the opportunity to wipe out any rebel pockets left south of Idlib/Aleppo. By and large, he seemed the biggest winner of a multi-year debacle which had left hundreds of thousands dead, an economy destroyed, and many millions fled in all directions, but Assad still in office and in control of the majority of the country and its population, and in negotiations with the Kurds, who'd earned some crucial respect and were angling for autonomy (obviously, independence was a non-starter, given the small size of Syrian Kurdistan, hostile neighbords, lack of port and the presence of Arab factions within the SDF).

:marseyinvisible: 2019: Sunni shenanigans

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17329569108343909.webp

You'll notice a splotch of c*m on the green; over the course of the year, HTS (a Salafi Islamist group that had, unlike ISIS, renounced global jihad) mostly subdued other rebels in the Idlib area. I haven't mentioned inter-rebel fighting in the interests of brevity and sanity but you should know Wikipedia acerbically calls this the "fifth inter-rebel conflict." Keep that in mind when @sandkwinn and other 80-iq antisemites call for pan-Arabism, peace with Hamas, and the like. Arabs couldn't peacefully unify in a single PROVINCE while having 1. the exact same ideology, religion and langage and 2. least two, maybe four serious external enemies in common including a bloodthirsty tyrant and the world's worst terrorist organization.

Also, Turkey expanded their foothold in the east to a 30-km "buffer zone." The Kurds reacted by letting Assad's troops in to reestablish their presence alongside SDF forces throughout much of northern Syria. Notably, throughout the whole war, Turkey refused to consider a full invasion of Syria or direct, serious confrontation with Assad (for boring reasons), so this was basically ensuring an end to Turkish incursions in exchange for letting Assad back in the hen house.

In October, Trump's Navy SEALs capped Baghdadi in Idlib. The world rejoiced.

:marseyinvisible: 2020: :flame#thrower2: :marseyturkroach:

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17329569110754697.webp

Assad, with serious Russian support, pushed up on Idlib, and the Kurds let him operate in even more of their territory. Dozens of Turks got merked by the Russians (probably on accident), causing a diplomatic rift and retaliatory bombing of Syrian gov't positions.

:marseyinvisible: 2021-2024: Nothing ever happens

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17329569112762928.webp

The frontlines stabilized and fossilized, most direct conflict ending.

Sanctions of Assad's economy caused him to increasingly rely on the production and distribution of Captagon (meth / adderall type stim) to the gulf for foreign currency. Deciding their shit wasn't fricked enough, G-d sent them some earthquakes.

The Kurds mostly acknowledged Assad's suzerainty in case of a war with Turkey while retaining their militias and local administration. Occasional skirmishes against the Syrian Army and between Kurds and Arabs within the SDF continued.

HTS "unified" Idlib - in the bare minimum sense that the 11 other factions there acknowledged their superior position while remaining independent - and started professionalizing their army, integrating drones and shit.

The American proxies sit in the desert guarding a CIA listening post and the only direct road from Baghdad to Damascus.

Everyone got bored and stopped checking r/syriancivilwar.

:chud#itsover:

UNTIL THIS WEEK :mars!#eyscream:

:marseyinvisible: Wednesday, November 27th

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17329569114308536.webp

Neighbors in the loop saw on X that HTS had launched a small offensive in the villages west of Aleppo, catching a mostly-demobilized Syrian army by surprise and capturing a few bases, some dozens of soldiers, vehicles and equipment commensurate with a raid of that size.

Most tweets are already deleted but there were some fun vids of them beating captives, a dead Russian or two, spoils of war etc. Nobody thought anything of it. We're all used to these shitty little propaganda raids from two-bit outfits in BIPOC parts of the world like Myanmar and Ukraine. You'd have to be mainling copium to expect anything more given the shit performance of the rebels the past decade and a half... right?

:marseyinvisible: Thursday, November 28th

https://i.rdrama.net/images/1732956911559362.webp

I was busy mowing the lawn, trimming trees and hedges, weeding, cleaning out the AC drain and, like all Americans, having Thanksgiving dinner. Turkey, not Syria, was on my mind.

Turkey was on the Syrian National Army's mind too, which is to say they were grateful Turkey did not take advantage of the fact HTS was overrunning their entire shit west of Aleppo, maybe the only bright side of the debacle so far. It seems the consolidation of the past few years paid off - HTS used better equipment, were better trained, and had drones and operators never before seen in sandshit outside Israel. The advance showed no signs of stopping.

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17329569118320458.webp

Suheil al-Hasan was spotted near the front - the pro-Russian commander of the "elite" Tiger Forces and somewhat of a civil war celebrity.

They reached within 7km of Aleppo's center, killing and plundering on the way. Many Syrian army guys got caught with their pants down - an Arab specialty, to whom discipline outside of active combat is a foreign concept.

https://old.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/1h25kga/dead_kia_as_regime_truck_ambushed_somewhere_in/

It looks like they knocked off an Iranian general...

Meanwhile the Turks and Kurds got spooked...

:marseyinvisible: Friday, November 29th

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17329569116955001.webp

HTS continued their excursion in Aleppo:

Freeing their neighbors (and some hos) from the torture prisons:

https://old.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/1h2vzk2/tariq_bin_ziyad_prison_near_alrahman_mosque/

Capturing mad shit:

https://old.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/1h2aidp/videos_of_some_of_the_20_tanks_captured_by_rebels/

And the police HQ:

https://old.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/1h2v880/hts_fighters_captured_the_aleppo_police/

Laughable showing by Assad honestly.

https://old.reddit.com/r/syriancivilwar/comments/1h2yxyi/rebels_caught_a_soldier_in_aleppo_who_had_been/

Most importantly, THEY TOOK THE CITADEL! This dumb butt castle or something was held by the regime the entire fricking war. It's almost unbreachable (by middle eastern standards) if properly defended. Big propaganda coup for the rebs.

:marseyinvisible: The future...?

Are Islamists (HTS), Turkey (SNA) and the Kurds (SDF) - the most unlikely allies - really going to campaign together against Assad? After 13 years during which zero cooperation took place between anyone, including at times when a slight intervention by, say, Turkey or Israel would have toppled the dictator? Or is this all hype and nothing ever happens? Will Assad counterattack with Russian or Iranian help and kick these neighbors back to Idlib?

:marseyit#soverwereback:

No one knows :shmleep:

P.S. @DWHITE___________DYNAMITE please teach your mans how to spell drumstick

https://i.rdrama.net/images/1732956901564386.webp

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!chuds !nonchuds

Can anyone explain why Kurds are hated by literally :marseyme: everyone?

I know !burgers helped stopped one of their multiple genocides

It almost sounds like they're more hated than even the Israeli's

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They exist as sizeable minorities in Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran.

None of those countries wants a Kurdish state. The Turks in particular fear the PKK would operate freely (the roaches are, as usual, full of shit; they used the same excuse about an Armenian state).

Unfortunately for the Kurds, almost everyone is allied with one of those four states. Washington doesn't want to piss off the Turks because they're in NATO, control the Bosperus, and could defect to the pro-Russia camp. The Russians like Iran and Syria. Other Middle Eastern powers aren't keen on supporting left-wing separatists.

That leaves only Israel, who has no way of getting them arms, since they're landlocked.

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What was the purpose of Turkey being added to NATO? Sounds like it's been a net negative :marseydisagree: besides access :marsey403: to the black :marseypennycoomer: sea

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It's the same purpose as to why European powers propped up the dying Ottoman Empire as long as possible: Russia.

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BLACKED

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17329851981847708.webp

NUKED :marseyexcited:

https://i.rdrama.net/images/17329851986990342.webp

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This is an excuse that western tankies made up after the fact to explain how Khrushchev didn't really lose. (Which is especially funny because everyone in Russia understood he lost.)

This was one of many of missile programs from the 1950s when there was a panic about the "missile gap". A lot of stuff was rushed into production like Thor, Jupiter, Matador, Regulus. These were stopgap measures that were quickly made obsolete by ICBMs and the Polaris SLBMs. Jupiter for example required a lot of guys to operate and it was in a fixed location so it was vulnerable to surprise attack. The Cuban Missile Crisis was in 1962. The Jupiter missiles in Italy were decommissioned already in 1963 because they were considered pretty much worthless.

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But the Russians also had ICBMs though, right? So what was the point?

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Fortunately you asked the right neurodivergent:

They had a few ICBMs but they were not terribly practical in the real world. Before launching they would take something like 24 hours to get fueled and then they had to be fired soon or the fuel would leak out. So US bombers could nuke them all faster than they could launch. It's not until the late 1960s that the Soviets had lots of reliable ICBMs that could be fired on short notice. If you look closely at events in the Cold War, you'll see that they were pretty timid up to that point (well with the obvious exception of the Cuban Missile Crisis that we're talking about). US strategy from WW2 up to then was that we didn't need a huge conventional army like the Soviets because we had such a huge superiority in nuclear weapons that we'd just use them if they invaded Europe.

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They control the Bosperus, as I mentioned. Back in the day, they were also a very large secular state on the border of the Middle East. Finally, the Americans didn't want them falling into the Soviet sphere.

Today they would never get membership. They've embraced Islamism and are much too friendly to the Russians.

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They used to be very secular and European :marseyangelamerkelwave: aligned. There :marseycheerup: used to be a common meme about Turkey wanting to join the EU but always getting rejected :marseytheyhaterhermessage:

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A ton of Turks still are secular and European aligned. At the end of the day even their conservatives mostly prefer to be closer to Europe rather than being part of the Arab world.

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At the time it was a great way to contain Russia and people were actually afraid of the Russian fleet back then

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The Turks didn't cut their own peepees off after WW2 like the Europeans. They actually had a real army, 2nd or 3rd biggest in NATO. And the culture there was much more sane back then than it is now.

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Post-WW2 pogroms aside.

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That leaves only Israel, who has no way of getting them arms, since they're landlocked.

:#marseysmirk2:

They'ed find a way :marseymerchant:

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there are 15 million kurds and like 12 armenians in turkey, its not the same thing

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I like the kurds because drama, but they come off as very nomadic like gypsies and well everyone hates gypsies so

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Kurds are like Atheist communists to Muslims, and Turks hate them well.. Turks hate everyone whose not a Turk

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Sand people hate other sand people

More news at 11

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https://media.tenor.com/OVeGBe4Zx6UAAAAx/angry-poor-noises.webp

https://media.tenor.com/STUnlu6p3EMAAAAx/theyll-soon-be-back-greater-numbers.webp

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The kurds are nearly the largest ethnic group in that part of sandBIPOCstan, nearly as many of them as the Turks.

Historically they had decent chunks of Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran until the Ottomans decided they didn't want competition so didn't use ethnicity to split regions. British decided they didn't want competition so didn't let them form a state after WW1 with the help of the Saud's.

All the successor states have wanted to genocide them to avoid the formation of what would be a homogeneous, relatively liberal, stable and US aligned state across a decent chunk of their territory. It would be like another Israel appearing taking large chunks out of Turkey, Armenia, Syria, Iraq and Iran. The largest chunk is in Turkey.

Also includes some prime oil fields.

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relatively liberal

:marseyconfused: Kurds are either extremely tribal :marseyklennylegion: with feudal lords and chiefs or full on commies, there :marseycheerup: is almost no in between :marseyzeldalinkpast:

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brits didnt carve up a kurdistan because most of the land wasnt theirs to carve up, unless you just replace iraq ig

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Kurds weren't give their own country when the Britbong powers divided up the Middle-East. Yet there are a ton of Kurds spread across multiple countries and their goal is to carve out their own state from them which leads to all those countries hating the Kurds.

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Can anyone explain why Kurds are hated by literally everyone?

If you believe some conjectures this goes back to 500 BC or earlier. They're the people who live in the mountains. So some of them are bandits who rob people at the mountain passes and it's really hard for law enforcement in any century to catch them.

Saki has a memorable story about English gentry being kidnapped by Kurdish bandits c. 1905 but I'm too sleepy to look it up right now.

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5000 kurd refugees settled into a japanese town called Warabi, it then became known as Warabistan. Now they are on the news every week for doing crime or protesting on the streets and chanting DEATH TO JAPAN and are the most universally hated ethnic group for the last couple years.

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https://i.rdrama.net/images/17330271310900574.webp

Konnichiwa my kawaii wolves lets genocide the Kurds tatakaw tatakaw

:marseyturkroachtypingtalking:

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thats me

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Kurds are like Americans, but they lack the land and resources while being wedged in between relatively powerful states.

:#marseymoidteach:

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