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Yes. (My uncle works at nintendo and he says iran is going to nuke israel tomorrow.) - 600 total betted
No but either iran or north korea or somebody will do a nuclear weapons test before he takes office. Seems like the kind of thing they'd want to get out of the way while Kamala Harris is in charge because Trump is erratic and likes to brag about his button, which unlike Kim Jong Un's, is bigger and more powerful, and his works. - 2,000 total betted
Nothing ever happens. - 25,800 total betted - WINNER!
Closed.
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Polymarket has a 19% probability of a nuclear detonation in 2025. This translates to a 0.06% risk of nuclear explosion per day, or about a 0.72% percent chance of happening by the inauguration.
Arbitrage play is betting "nothing ever happens" here. You're welcome for the financial advice.
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