2024 YR4 is an asteroid recently discovered by scientists in Chile (it's not the flying Tesla "asteroid", this one is legit). It is an "Apollo-type" near-Earth object that crosses our planet's orbit.
This week, scientists learned it had a 1.2%-1.6% chance of hitting Earth on 22 December 2032.
At a diameter of between 40 and 100 metres (130 and 330Β ft), an impact with the ground could release approximately 8 megatons of destructive energy.
For reference, that is 533 times the bomb at Hiroshima and more than double the maximum yield of a US Navy Trident II ICMB.
All this places 2024 YR4 at a troubling 3 (out of 10) on the Torino Scale of impact hazards. It is the only non-0 threat, and the second highest ever recorded, exceeded only briefly in 2004 by 99942 Apophis before closer observations revealed that asteroid would not hit Earth.
So that is the bad news. Ready for the good news?
Calculations by NASA and the ESA show that 2024 YR4's "risk corridor" (where it would hit) doesn't pose a threat to anywhere important.
Other sources:
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this isn't recent
this has been news for over a decade
i guess the difference is that there's some new data about it
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2024 YR4 was only discovered on 27 December 2024.
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i must be thinking of a different asteroid that was to hit in 2032 also i s*x your mother
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He's posting from the future
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