@Sasanka_of_Gauda I was wrong
Edit: Egypt willing to use rubles to trade with Russia https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/06/egypt-plans-use-ruble-trade-russia
Edit 2: Sri Lanka too wants that oil https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/south-asia/bankrupt-sri-lanka-seeks-discounted-russian-oil/articleshow/92472265.cms
Edit 3: Mongolia also getting that oil https://www.russia-briefing.com/news/russia-mongolia-trade-up-30-looking-to-expand.html/
So is China: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/6/20/china-oil-imports-from-sanctioned-russia-skyrocket-surpass-saudi
So is India : https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/indias-crude-oil-imports-from-russia-jumps-50-times-now-accounts-for-10-of-all-import/
BRICS nations gonna have their own reserve currency : https://think.ing.com/opinions/brics-the-new-name-in-reserve-currencies/
Worst case scenario: Russia economy is in recession for 10 years before getting back to 2021 levels of growth. This is worst case scenario right now. Just as bad as European Union. So not a big deal. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/17/russian-economy-faces-10-years-of-recession-without-reforms-sberbank-ceo-a78031
Ruble hits 7 year high : https://news.bitcoin.com/ruble-hits-7-year-high-bukele-oleary-unfazed-by-crypto-downturn-elon-musk-will-keep-buying-doge-bitcoin-com-news-week-in-review/
Russian ruble is the strongest currency in the world this year: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-ruble-currency-russian-economy-2022/
Boom in Yuan Ruble trade: https://asiatimes.com/2022/06/yuan-ruble-trade-boom-a-wakeup-call-for-biden/
Conclusion: Russian economy is secure as it can shift all it's import needs to China from the west while moving all it's exports to the same nation. It also has increasing trade with Egypt, India, and Mongolia. That's enough countries for a trillion dollar nation to keep rising up in economic terms or at least stay aloft.
The Mongolia, China, Russia integration system is already in play and will likely win out. Russia is safe and can only be cut off from the cutting edge. Beyond that whatever the Chinese develop becomes accessible to the Russians as trade partners. China is already a more developed economy than Russia which means that Russia has constant access to better tech to work with. Sorry westoids but you can only make your club exclusive, but you can no longer stop growth of those outside of the club.
Edit 4: Russian inflation is twice the current rate of US inflation. That is the primary downside. However the Russians are more used to getting economically fricked than the US citizen.
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/inflation-may-2022-consumer-prices-food-and-gas-rcna32774
Edit 5 : Russia finally defaults on it's debts after getting away with it for months at the last second. As per article - " But given the damage already done to the economy and markets, the default is also mostly symbolic for now", so trade with China continues as normal. Debt defaults matter when neutral countries have to decide whether they want to invest in you or not. Countries that favor you will invest in you irrespective of debt status as per my understanding. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/russia-defaults-on-foreign-debt-for-first-time-since-1918/articleshow/92479426.cms
Edit 6: Russia still in a position to turn Ukraine into a crater on the Earth if it goes full artillery strikes don't care about the cities or infrastructure mode. https://eurasiantimes.com/russias-200-year-old-artillery-first-doctrine-that-devastated-ukraine/
Russia supplying Belarus with more weapons systems thus guaranteeing an ally right inside the EU that is hostile to the west and is now better armed. https://www.wionews.com/world/russia-will-supply-belarus-with-missile-systems-capable-of-carrying-nuclear-weapons-491833
Ukraine says missile attack came from Belarus which means things just got worse for Ukraine getting even more surrounded. https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/ukraine-reports-massive-attack-from-belarus-3100041
Russia achieved one of it's key strategic goals when it took over severodonetsk completely. So far they aren't losing just getting extremely slowed down. They still have the bodies to throw though. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61945914
Serbia still close enough to Russia to secure new gas deals with them well into the war. That's two hostile to the EU players in the west. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/29/serbia-ignores-eu-sanctions-secures-gas-deal-with-putin
Even Turkey is neutral to Russia. https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/russia-ukraine-crisis/turkey-defends-its-neutral-stance-on-kyiv-says-sanctioning-russia-to-harm-its-economy-articleshow.html
Hungary continuing to oppose Russian oil bans and other sanction measures taken by the EU. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/30/eu-to-discuss-watered-down-oil-embargo-on-russia-as-hungary-holds-firm.html
Russia is still active in Syria participating in military drills there which shows that the west did not even succeed in their goal of getting the Russians to leave Syria even in the middle of a devastating ongoing war. https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/06/26/Syrian-and-Russian-paratroopers-conduct-joint-military-drill
Conclusion 2: Russia is not isolated at all currently. It has only been kicked out of the US and European Union main markets. Beyond that it is still well connected to the rest of the middling economies of the world and holds great sway there, well enough to continue to thrive in the long run.
The final question then is will Russia win in Ukraine in a long all out war, and the answer is likely yes if their economy cannot be fully crashed but only slowed down. Russia will just keep importing more people from Belarus even if the population begins to collapse.
Edit 7: @genuineloicensed this is not an agendapost you are a shit reporter if you checked my history you would know I post both for an against on various issues. I have no side thus I cannot agendapost go frick yourself you biased ninny.
@JewTwo I am not an AI I am a very smart and good looking human whose competencies can be mistaken as superhuman AI or demigod equivalents to normies such as yourself. Have faith, I am not above the people, just better than them.
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This post is stupid. All of this shit has been known for ages, and I've been saying all of this for ages. Finally, western media has reluctantly started printing a version of events that, while still ridiculous, at least takes into accounts some of the facts. Why? Because when everything they write for months since the beginning of the war goes nowhere
every single time, they have to try and keep their alternate reality somewhere near the actual one, or even their own people might start to download telegram. They won't actually, westoids are lazy, fat, and r-slurred, but it's still a concern.
You're still wrong, all your sources are still full of shit (as I said elsewhere - 10 year recession prediction is literally sole opinion of Gref himself, who is a meme. Others don't think so) - but they're just barely less full of shit than what they were before. You're still using terms like "default" (which is only true if you take the most obnoxiously pedantic definition of the term), because the sources you read told you that. But even in these extremely biased sources, you still manage to come to the conclusion that your prediction of imminent Russian disintegration was a bit r-slurred. Which it was. And I told you so when you first made it.
Pinning because I'm a power-tripping piece of shit. Sue me
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You're still a power-tripping piece of shit, and your comment is still stupid.
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I don't know what you said, because I've seen another human naked.
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!blackjack200
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!blackjack105
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!blackjack400
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!blackjack105
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!blackjack800
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!blackjack105
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!blackjack1600
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!blackjack105
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is this the first domino in the decline of the dollar as the worlds currency?
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Meh I doubt it the dollars strengthening against almost every currency that isn't the ruble right now looks like the moneyed people still trust American economy when the global ones goes to heck. I mean what alternative is there? China which seizes their own citizen's wealth? Russia which let's be honest doesn't have a particularly diversified economy? A BRICS common currency can be decent but IDK if any of those countries will want to give up monetary policy independence. Anyway here's to hoping burgers frick up more.
A civil war should do it.
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Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum
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Good joke.
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It's not going to happen overnight, or even this decade. The thing is, that right now pretty much nobody has much of a choice. Like you said - there isn't really a currency people can run away into at this moment. There are metals, sure, but they're volatile as shit and are a colossal pain in the butt to use as a medium of exchange. Not to mention that by far the most international contracts are still signed in dollars, forcing everyone bound by these contracts to continue using dollars at least for now.
The issue is that before 2022 there wasn't much of a way or even a reason for anyone to do anything else. There is now. And where there's a hole in a market for a new medium of exchange that isn't under the control of an increasingly rabid burgerland - it will absolutely be filled. Not today. Probably not tomorrow. But eventually.
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Might I suggest a timeline?
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It's the first big one. First domino was much earlier - but this is the one that will really put a dent in it. Not because Russia itself is this important - on its own, it doesn't matter that much. It's just that literally every world government that can theoretically imagine doing something that Americans won't like, will now be weary of using USD for storing his wealth or even for signing any contracts in it. Without trust in it being solid, dollar really lacks the primary reason it became what it became in the first place. World trade can be done in pretty much anything, as long as it's easily convertible and liquid.
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yeah i agree i think this could end up being a massive unforced error on the part of the USA here.
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It's a massive unforced error. They went full r-slur on Russia in hopes of actually causing collapse/shortages and forcing them to negotiate on burger terms.
This in itself is bad, because other countries see this and imagine it happening to themselves. But it's doubly terrible, because they can also see how it's entirely possible to overcome it via fairly trivial policies, if done in advance. THIS is what's the most dangerous to dollar supremacy - other countries (think Brazil, India, especially China) following Russian pre-war policies and pushing USD out of its economy, banking, and trade wherever it's not necessary. Enough places do that - and dollar becomes just another currency, which will behave like any other one (endless printing will no longer work).
What I'm saying is that they've shown themselves to not only be vicious degenerates, but also weak vicious degenerates. And nobody likes or respects vicious degenerates who're weak. Or even tolerates them.
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The old cold war ghouls like Kennan and Kissinger were saying twenty years ago that provoking Russia is no longer in our national interest.
I'm no diplomat or scholar but I just don't see how dragging this conflict out helps America long term. Sure it might weaken Russia a little but since Russia isn't really a rival anymore how does that strengthen us...
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So do you think US lost decades will be stuck at 60K USD per capita income level for all citizens?
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I think they will comparatively fall to something more in line with their production capacities. In absolute numbers it might (actually probably will) continue growing, but compared to (say) Europe or Asia, they will become less prosperous per capita. Simply because there's no way to run permanent trade deficits when your currency isn't seen as something valuable in its own right, not just something that can be used to fund operations / buy shit in the issuing country.
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So UK 2.0? That still sounds like a collapse that's gonna take a century or two to happen.
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I don't think they'll collapse in any real way in any foreseeable future. There is nothing there to cause it. Theoretically, I guess, the yankee/dixie divide - but it's far too weak to cause an actual breakup (the differences are lesser than between Russians and Ukrainians, for instance). US will continue to exist pretty much indefinitely, they'll just be progressively less relevant with every passing decade.
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Weβve deindustrialized and are now working on definancialisation. Weβre boned. We will need putler to make our baby formula.
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Yeah, no shit. It's about time someone took a stand against the American government and their ridiculous currency. screw the USD, it's time for a change!
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I've noticed that quite a few people have just entirely stopped following Klenny's famous guide, despite being quite well integrated before!
1. Be funny
Nobody wants to read seriousposting. Post shit that's going to be entertaining to people instead of just boringly shilling your worldview. Tell some kind of fricking joke somehow. Smile. Laugh.
IMPORTANT INFO BELOW:
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Meh, this is an agendapost to start with. Not much to joke about here.
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GLORIOUS MOTHER RUSSIA !!!!
10,000 YEARS!
BANZAAAAIII!!!
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Nah I still think China will take East Russia as compensation, it's just that you guys will survive the war.
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ok
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