@Sasanka_of_Gauda I was wrong
Edit: Egypt willing to use rubles to trade with Russia https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/06/egypt-plans-use-ruble-trade-russia
Edit 2: Sri Lanka too wants that oil https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/south-asia/bankrupt-sri-lanka-seeks-discounted-russian-oil/articleshow/92472265.cms
Edit 3: Mongolia also getting that oil https://www.russia-briefing.com/news/russia-mongolia-trade-up-30-looking-to-expand.html/
So is China: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/6/20/china-oil-imports-from-sanctioned-russia-skyrocket-surpass-saudi
So is India : https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/indias-crude-oil-imports-from-russia-jumps-50-times-now-accounts-for-10-of-all-import/
BRICS nations gonna have their own reserve currency : https://think.ing.com/opinions/brics-the-new-name-in-reserve-currencies/
Worst case scenario: Russia economy is in recession for 10 years before getting back to 2021 levels of growth. This is worst case scenario right now. Just as bad as European Union. So not a big deal. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/17/russian-economy-faces-10-years-of-recession-without-reforms-sberbank-ceo-a78031
Ruble hits 7 year high : https://news.bitcoin.com/ruble-hits-7-year-high-bukele-oleary-unfazed-by-crypto-downturn-elon-musk-will-keep-buying-doge-bitcoin-com-news-week-in-review/
Russian ruble is the strongest currency in the world this year: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-ukraine-ruble-currency-russian-economy-2022/
Boom in Yuan Ruble trade: https://asiatimes.com/2022/06/yuan-ruble-trade-boom-a-wakeup-call-for-biden/
Conclusion: Russian economy is secure as it can shift all it's import needs to China from the west while moving all it's exports to the same nation. It also has increasing trade with Egypt, India, and Mongolia. That's enough countries for a trillion dollar nation to keep rising up in economic terms or at least stay aloft.
The Mongolia, China, Russia integration system is already in play and will likely win out. Russia is safe and can only be cut off from the cutting edge. Beyond that whatever the Chinese develop becomes accessible to the Russians as trade partners. China is already a more developed economy than Russia which means that Russia has constant access to better tech to work with. Sorry westoids but you can only make your club exclusive, but you can no longer stop growth of those outside of the club.
Edit 4: Russian inflation is twice the current rate of US inflation. That is the primary downside. However the Russians are more used to getting economically fricked than the US citizen.
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/inflation-may-2022-consumer-prices-food-and-gas-rcna32774
Edit 5 : Russia finally defaults on it's debts after getting away with it for months at the last second. As per article - " But given the damage already done to the economy and markets, the default is also mostly symbolic for now", so trade with China continues as normal. Debt defaults matter when neutral countries have to decide whether they want to invest in you or not. Countries that favor you will invest in you irrespective of debt status as per my understanding. https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/business/russia-defaults-on-foreign-debt-for-first-time-since-1918/articleshow/92479426.cms
Edit 6: Russia still in a position to turn Ukraine into a crater on the Earth if it goes full artillery strikes don't care about the cities or infrastructure mode. https://eurasiantimes.com/russias-200-year-old-artillery-first-doctrine-that-devastated-ukraine/
Russia supplying Belarus with more weapons systems thus guaranteeing an ally right inside the EU that is hostile to the west and is now better armed. https://www.wionews.com/world/russia-will-supply-belarus-with-missile-systems-capable-of-carrying-nuclear-weapons-491833
Ukraine says missile attack came from Belarus which means things just got worse for Ukraine getting even more surrounded. https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/ukraine-reports-massive-attack-from-belarus-3100041
Russia achieved one of it's key strategic goals when it took over severodonetsk completely. So far they aren't losing just getting extremely slowed down. They still have the bodies to throw though. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61945914
Serbia still close enough to Russia to secure new gas deals with them well into the war. That's two hostile to the EU players in the west. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/29/serbia-ignores-eu-sanctions-secures-gas-deal-with-putin
Even Turkey is neutral to Russia. https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/russia-ukraine-crisis/turkey-defends-its-neutral-stance-on-kyiv-says-sanctioning-russia-to-harm-its-economy-articleshow.html
Hungary continuing to oppose Russian oil bans and other sanction measures taken by the EU. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/30/eu-to-discuss-watered-down-oil-embargo-on-russia-as-hungary-holds-firm.html
Russia is still active in Syria participating in military drills there which shows that the west did not even succeed in their goal of getting the Russians to leave Syria even in the middle of a devastating ongoing war. https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/06/26/Syrian-and-Russian-paratroopers-conduct-joint-military-drill
Conclusion 2: Russia is not isolated at all currently. It has only been kicked out of the US and European Union main markets. Beyond that it is still well connected to the rest of the middling economies of the world and holds great sway there, well enough to continue to thrive in the long run.
The final question then is will Russia win in Ukraine in a long all out war, and the answer is likely yes if their economy cannot be fully crashed but only slowed down. Russia will just keep importing more people from Belarus even if the population begins to collapse.
Edit 7: @genuineloicensed this is not an agendapost you are a shit reporter if you checked my history you would know I post both for an against on various issues. I have no side thus I cannot agendapost go frick yourself you biased ninny.
@JewTwo I am not an AI I am a very smart and good looking human whose competencies can be mistaken as superhuman AI or demigod equivalents to normies such as yourself. Have faith, I am not above the people, just better than them.
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This post is stupid. All of this shit has been known for ages, and I've been saying all of this for ages. Finally, western media has reluctantly started printing a version of events that, while still ridiculous, at least takes into accounts some of the facts. Why? Because when everything they write for months since the beginning of the war goes nowhere
every single time, they have to try and keep their alternate reality somewhere near the actual one, or even their own people might start to download telegram. They won't actually, westoids are lazy, fat, and r-slurred, but it's still a concern.
You're still wrong, all your sources are still full of shit (as I said elsewhere - 10 year recession prediction is literally sole opinion of Gref himself, who is a meme. Others don't think so) - but they're just barely less full of shit than what they were before. You're still using terms like "default" (which is only true if you take the most obnoxiously pedantic definition of the term), because the sources you read told you that. But even in these extremely biased sources, you still manage to come to the conclusion that your prediction of imminent Russian disintegration was a bit r-slurred. Which it was. And I told you so when you first made it.
Pinning because I'm a power-tripping piece of shit. Sue me
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I don't know what you said, because I've seen another human naked.
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!blackjack200
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!blackjack105
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!blackjack400
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!blackjack105
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!blackjack800
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!blackjack105
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!blackjack1600
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!blackjack105
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is this the first domino in the decline of the dollar as the worlds currency?
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Meh I doubt it the dollars strengthening against almost every currency that isn't the ruble right now looks like the moneyed people still trust American economy when the global ones goes to heck. I mean what alternative is there? China which seizes their own citizen's wealth? Russia which let's be honest doesn't have a particularly diversified economy? A BRICS common currency can be decent but IDK if any of those countries will want to give up monetary policy independence. Anyway here's to hoping burgers frick up more.
A civil war should do it.
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Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum
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Good joke.
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It's not going to happen overnight, or even this decade. The thing is, that right now pretty much nobody has much of a choice. Like you said - there isn't really a currency people can run away into at this moment. There are metals, sure, but they're volatile as shit and are a colossal pain in the butt to use as a medium of exchange. Not to mention that by far the most international contracts are still signed in dollars, forcing everyone bound by these contracts to continue using dollars at least for now.
The issue is that before 2022 there wasn't much of a way or even a reason for anyone to do anything else. There is now. And where there's a hole in a market for a new medium of exchange that isn't under the control of an increasingly rabid burgerland - it will absolutely be filled. Not today. Probably not tomorrow. But eventually.
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Might I suggest a timeline?
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It's the first big one. First domino was much earlier - but this is the one that will really put a dent in it. Not because Russia itself is this important - on its own, it doesn't matter that much. It's just that literally every world government that can theoretically imagine doing something that Americans won't like, will now be weary of using USD for storing his wealth or even for signing any contracts in it. Without trust in it being solid, dollar really lacks the primary reason it became what it became in the first place. World trade can be done in pretty much anything, as long as it's easily convertible and liquid.
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yeah i agree i think this could end up being a massive unforced error on the part of the USA here.
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It's a massive unforced error. They went full r-slur on Russia in hopes of actually causing collapse/shortages and forcing them to negotiate on burger terms.
This in itself is bad, because other countries see this and imagine it happening to themselves. But it's doubly terrible, because they can also see how it's entirely possible to overcome it via fairly trivial policies, if done in advance. THIS is what's the most dangerous to dollar supremacy - other countries (think Brazil, India, especially China) following Russian pre-war policies and pushing USD out of its economy, banking, and trade wherever it's not necessary. Enough places do that - and dollar becomes just another currency, which will behave like any other one (endless printing will no longer work).
What I'm saying is that they've shown themselves to not only be vicious degenerates, but also weak vicious degenerates. And nobody likes or respects vicious degenerates who're weak. Or even tolerates them.
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The old cold war ghouls like Kennan and Kissinger were saying twenty years ago that provoking Russia is no longer in our national interest.
I'm no diplomat or scholar but I just don't see how dragging this conflict out helps America long term. Sure it might weaken Russia a little but since Russia isn't really a rival anymore how does that strengthen us...
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So do you think US lost decades will be stuck at 60K USD per capita income level for all citizens?
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I think they will comparatively fall to something more in line with their production capacities. In absolute numbers it might (actually probably will) continue growing, but compared to (say) Europe or Asia, they will become less prosperous per capita. Simply because there's no way to run permanent trade deficits when your currency isn't seen as something valuable in its own right, not just something that can be used to fund operations / buy shit in the issuing country.
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So UK 2.0? That still sounds like a collapse that's gonna take a century or two to happen.
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I don't think they'll collapse in any real way in any foreseeable future. There is nothing there to cause it. Theoretically, I guess, the yankee/dixie divide - but it's far too weak to cause an actual breakup (the differences are lesser than between Russians and Ukrainians, for instance). US will continue to exist pretty much indefinitely, they'll just be progressively less relevant with every passing decade.
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Weβve deindustrialized and are now working on definancialisation. Weβre boned. We will need putler to make our baby formula.
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Yeah, no shit. It's about time someone took a stand against the American government and their ridiculous currency. screw the USD, it's time for a change!
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I've noticed that quite a few people have just entirely stopped following Klenny's famous guide, despite being quite well integrated before!
1. Be funny
Nobody wants to read seriousposting. Post shit that's going to be entertaining to people instead of just boringly shilling your worldview. Tell some kind of fricking joke somehow. Smile. Laugh.
IMPORTANT INFO BELOW:
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Meh, this is an agendapost to start with. Not much to joke about here.
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You're still a power-tripping piece of shit, and your comment is still stupid.
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GLORIOUS MOTHER RUSSIA !!!!
10,000 YEARS!
BANZAAAAIII!!!
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Nah I still think China will take East Russia as compensation, it's just that you guys will survive the war.
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ok
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lol wat
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Ah yes, 100 new mansions will be built in the name of Russian oligarchs.
The Russian 1% will have it very very well.
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Unlike China and Russia Europe and US are not as closely tied together at the moment. German dependency on Russian oil and it's closure completely fricks over the Euro in the coming years. Long term stagnancy of the EU is pretty much guaranteed and unlike the US they can't just print more without consequence.
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You said "in recession for 10 years". Do you even know what a recession is? Claiming that being in a recession for an entire decade is "not a big deal" is the height of r-sluration.
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He's using westoid sources. Nobody actually thinks Russia will be in a recession for 10 years, lol.
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my favourite western source
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German Gref is a shitlib westoid-worshipper. Always has been. But of course the western propaganda source will use the most catastrophising, and of course you quoted that as factual. Here's a counterpoint:
https://www.rbc.ru/economics/02/06/2022/6298b4369a7947b4538ea53a
For the lazy:
So far, the prognoses have only been revised upwards every month. In March they had a much more pessimistic outlook, but even then they didn't think the fall would last 10 years.
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I didn't, the OP quoted it as a "worst case scenario", in fact I didn't even read it, I just pointed out that a Russian born in the USSR CEO of a Russian majority state-owned bank is not a "westoid source"
you should try seriousposting less
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"This is a western source so its wrong and fake." "Akchyally this is a russian source, but it shows us in negative light therefore its also wrong. This one however shows us positively therefore it is correct"
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No shit. I'm mocking him for making such a basic mistake in his econ longposting attempt.
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Japan got through it no problem. Iran and North Korea got through it too in one piece. It's not the kind of death sentence it used to be anymore. Just means your military and political influence is limited to your borders which is exactly what's happening with Russia right now plus it is at western borders so nothing changed or got worse for them anyhow.
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Stagnation isn't recession.
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Iran recession. Got through. Pay attention dumbass.
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First of all, your previous comment started with this:
Again, Japan did not experience 10 years of recession. The Lost Decade was not 10 years of recession.
Second of all, when the frick did Iran experience a 10-year-long recession?
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Japan had 3 lost decades. Even the US and Europe is going through a recession or close to at the moment their inflation rates are waaaaay above their economic yearly growth rates.
2012 to 2020 iran economy went down and down and down. Plus another example Argentina, even with multiple defaults it keeps chugging along almost as if recessions no longer entirely kill a nation.
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Not a single one of the examples you've named thus far have experienced a 10-year recessionary period since the Great Depression (I guess maybe Iran could have in the 1970s during the Iran-Iraq War).
This has always been the case.
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Yeah, welcome to war, the game where in reality everyone loses, but then everyone involved scrambles to make it look like they actually won something.
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Please mw is child's play, real academics play EU4
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They took over severodonetsk. They are already accumulating troops to go the next city on the map now. They are doing this one city at a time and it's working slow and steady.
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Slow and steady wins the race. Only 2 more weeks before kiev falls
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Keep harder. If you studied as much as you drank the Russians wouldnβt have lost the space race.
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All doubt erased that Russia is gonna be Beijing's b-word for the next century
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I wouldn't worry about this, according to Western sources and Le genius Pizzashill, Russia will be bankrupt any minute now.........any minute now.........any minute now........
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I'm not delusional enough to think this is going to end well for Ukraine. But at the same time look how little progress Russia made from June 1st to June 23rd. This war is going nowhere at the moment
Sorry Igor, but it's true. You guys kinda suck at warfare
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Nono you see, it is not a military invasion.
It's not warfare.
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That's a cope. They're doing positional warfare grinding opponents out, yeah. Taking (fortified) cities and causing casualties so fricking insane that even Ukros are now admitting that they're a bit too much. Once the frontline breaks, the pace of the offensive will be more up to your liking, I guess...
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Im sure theyll take kiev in two weeks
This time for real for real, though
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Not claiming that. They have NATOids doing everything but actually sending their units to fight (they are sending individual soldiers and officers, though). Of course it will take a bit. But it's clearly progressing and the enemy is losing everything that matters. Do you think they can last forever without trained personnel?
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Isn't NATO also accepting Ukrainian troops for training purposes though before sending them back to the front lines?
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Yeah, but that's been going on even before the war.
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true, but it's a serious power multiplier historically.
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Not anywhere near enough to compensate for the losses they're suffering. Look at the figures - they train like 200 every couple of weeks. They lose more than that daily...
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Cope harder Russkie. The real tragedy of the Eastern Front was that there were survivors.
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Hahaha, this is my favourite vatnik cope.
Can't beat Ukraine, a third tier country. Ooo, big scary!! Ha
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Most maps are made up of large area of empty land. Russia just finished with severodontsk, has now moved on to another city lysydensk or something like that it's called. It is very possible that Russia instead of doing a wide march is doing a focused hold land and expand city by city setup. Which while slower still makes it impossible for the Ukrainians to reclaim land and leaves them on a permanent slow backfoot while their economy continues to be crippled. Ukraine doesn't even have much armaments anymore and is completely dependent on the west to even keep going at the moment. Troop accumulations are taking place in the Zaporizhia region by Russia which makes the most sense based on the current map.
I think Russia can produce dumb munitions for pretty much forever so they do not need to worry about running out of weapons either. In terms of troops it is at least an equal match to Ukrainian total national numbers so again it's a long term stalemate with Russia moving forward at a seemingly glacial rate.
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and then once Bernie wins New York we'll finally be close to catching up in superdelegates
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the delegates?
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BIG cope
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show me on the map where Ukraine reclaimed territories.
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I don't give a shit about Ukraine lol, I'm just saying Russia is incompetent
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wrong
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Everything north of Kyiv...
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So nothing on the east then. As expected.
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It's pretty certainly going to be a pyrric victory. Few people think Russia is truly incapable of taking Ukraine, but th price is going to be high on a country that doesn't have the demographics to absurb it. This is the Russian population pyramid. Notice how it is not shaped like a pyramid? They're already going through a pretty difficult bulge as a generation retires and transitions from their peak productivity of puting value into the economy to taking value out of the economy in retirement. In 30 years when that second bulge hits retirement the Russian empire will be finished. Old people will die in droves in the street with no one to take care of them.
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Bruh Russia has a pop of 130m, 5% of that(20-30 range) is 6.5m males, of that even if they lose 60k by war's end that's 1% of that whole age cohort. Nothing demographically significant. And they got 1 million refugees from Ukraine alone.
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The collapse is coming either way, this is just wasting effort that could be put into preparing for it.
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Putler will do it desu
Trust the plan.
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20.3? Surely that's a typo. But it's pretty much too late to avoid catastrophe. Having a lot of kids right now would help but there's going to be a heck of a buldge either way.
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Consumption removes "value" from the economy.
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Consumption requires someone else to produce value. There are complicated ways to model ways in which increased consumption can stimulate production but we can step back from complicated modeling and just look at the bare metal here. In the next 10 years the number of people too old to really work in Russia is going to skyrocket at the same time the number of people of working age, specifically those with the most experience, are going to be greatly reduced. Much more of the productive capacity of the nation is going to go into caring for old people leaving less productive capacity to go elsewhere in the economy. This next hump will probably cause economic trouble, the one after it will cause ruin.
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And they did. Savings / investment is deferred consumption. Sorry, chud.
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By that logic they've already produced the beneficial portion of their consumption and have left society in their debt. Then we can simply model this as the bad situation if lots of debt coming due during a liquidity crunch.
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No, that doesn't follow. Savings is literally deferred consumption, by definition. You have wealth but you don't consume it now, so what other option is there? One. You save it, and eventually it's sold for what reason? Consumption.
Value is created during an exchange. Just because you're old, and you sell some assets to pay bills and groceries, it doesn't mean no value was created.
What are you smoking?
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I know how retirement works, I'm describing population level economics. Money is only as good as the goods and services it can be exchanged for. If you double the number of people consuming services and half the number of people producing them what do you think happens to the price of all services? If savings are denominated in rubles or whatever and the price of everything skyrockets relatives to the ruble what do you think happens to this "deferred compensation"?
I'm telling you that the normal individual model of save during working age to support yourself in retirement can and will be disrupted from grander economic trends. This is very obvious if you consider it on a smaller scale.
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I yield to the economically ignorant. Good day, sir.
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Isnβt it like this everywhere?
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US is actually in a much better position because of immigration. Still some buldge and tapering but not as extreme.
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USA is imperialist. Russtards:
Russia is imperialist. Russtards:
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I am not a Russtard I argue from both sides on alternate days to get closer to the real truth.
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I'm sure your points are biased and you have a good understanding of Russian systems, given you spent 0 days in Russia.
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I spent 0 days in the US too but you still agree when I point out amerifats are too fat. Almost like you can make realistic conclusions based on serious observations.
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Most people stopped caring about Ukraine; I'm still on George Floyd.
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have you tried to pull that knee away?
Give him a breath
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BLM is not believed in Russia, you should care.
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Imagine saying βSri Lanka and Mongolia want our oil so weβll be okβ
My brother in Christ have you seen Sri Lanka recently?
How does the oil get to these countries all the current pipelines were designed by Euro/Yank engineers are you sure want Rajesh and Xio Xao designing anything?
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Chinese Cargo ships. Plus maybe it doesn't get as far as Sri Lanka, but in the case of Mongolia pipelines were being talked about and construction setup for years already. China was already setting up and preparing for all eventualities you could get a glimpse of that already in 2015.
Xio Xao infra still gets the job done just with a higher chance of fatal collapse at random sometime after a decade.
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This is industrial cope, Chinese cargo ships lmao.
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For Sri Lanka maybe, the Mongolian oil pipes are still working out though. Russia shifted like 70-80% of the Western oil supply losses to the east already If I read it right.
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Mongolian pipelines to save the Russian economy lmao
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If it works it works. A China-Mongolia-Russia network is pretty much unbeatable compared to the EU or the US.
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The beauty of ships is they can float. So if some r-slurred government is trying to make their owner lose money they can float away to some less r-slurred government. And take those juicy tax revenues with them. Like all those rando Panama flagged ships. All of which is to say Greeks thankfully aren't extremely r-slurred lmao.
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Underdeveloped countries literally always have a higher projected growth. This has nothing to do with sanctions you r-slur.
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You rslur China has so many more people that even with picking up all the middling fruit it still ends up the most powerful economic empire in the world today. That's the problem for you. Your people are dying out. Any country that produced ten times the people can overtake you with half the effort. The west would get completely BTFO if India sided with China because then you have an entire Eastern sphere vs an entire western sphere and one of them is dying out earlier than the other.
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Lol. Greenland is friendly to Russia? They're whatever Denmark happens to be because they are a part of the kingdom of Denmark.
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Read the rest of my points too.
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Too sick to care about bait, especially this much.
Sorry
@Sasanka_of_Gauda, 
@idio3 y'all have to deal with poorcel version of..whatever below text will end up being.
'yadda yadda yadda, that's a lot of text, from sources OP only selected, because they are fully, or in parts OP used - terribly one sided'
'should I link to Ukraine MoD twitter now?'
' the line about Belarus and importing belarussians made me laught'
' Russian economy will never go fully to the shits, until it has natural resources to sell and asian partners? Shocking observation.' / ( Sarcasm btw)
'why is OP so certain that China wouldn't dance the 'uncertain and undecided' jig about being russia's trade partner'
There's probably more, but I'm
Here's a cat footage for sasanka and Idio3
CiA assest training to invade Belarus and eliminate an old man and his son
Im gunna
, darn you Putin!!!
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They are, but not in the way you think they are, lol. The sources are nearly all Angloid, with the exception of a couple of Indian ones quoting Angloids.
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I told ya, I'm too fricked up to check them, I saw BBC and CBS and meh...
So this is particularly low effort answer, especially first two lines, I'd throwaway even if OP linked to 'newsblogtotallynotpaidofbyrussianfederation. net'
To go into serious posting mode - ' asian countries which traded oil with russia before, and has basically no other viable choices, decide to further trade with Russia' - is not some shocking take.
Is OP implying that he thinks that euroheads and burgerland didn't think about this before starting sanctions?
@idio3?
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I think the implication was that it would be too slow of a process and far more damaging to Russia than it was in reality. See Iran, Venezuela. Russians turned out to just be forced into a discount of like $20 below Brent, which still makes them far more money than what they did before the war, due to it increasing the total price of oil.
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I might be misunderstanding this because of my condition or the wrote up, but is OP, based on their sources, claim that belarussian army might be prepared and go into offensive warfare?
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Yeah, that's another bit of bullshit. I really don't understand why angloids are suddenly acting like Russian planes launching strikes from Belarusian airfields is somehow news. They've been doing that since February. Nothing changed. Belarus is not getting into the war unless attacked, and I doubt Ukros are this stupid. 60k extra troops on the northern front is not anything they will choose to suddenly have to deal with, lmao.
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'Russia will just keep importing more people from Belarus even if the population begins to collapse.'
Twenty-twenty-twenty-four hours to go
I wanna be imported
Nothing to do, nowhere to go home
I wanna be imported
Just, get me to the airport, put me on a plane
Hurr, y hurry, hurry, before I go insane
I can't control my fingers, I can't control my brain
Oh no, oh-oh oh-oh
I wanna be imported
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