https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1752775226612474145
🇺🇲 2024 GE: @QuinnipiacPoll (15)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) January 31, 2024
Nov. 2023
(R) Trump: 48% (+2)
(D) Biden: 46%
.
Dec. 2023
(D) Biden: 47% (+1)
(R) Trump: 46%
.
Jan. 2024
(D) Biden: 50% (+6)
(R) Trump: 44% https://t.co/o5quaNGa46 pic.twitter.com/6jP0KUpUp8
!chuds in shambles
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Like normal, this poll comes down to party lines.
Rep: 91% Trump, 7% Biden
Dem: 2% Trump, 96% Biden
Which means the poll depends on their weights for Dem/Rep.
See, they assume there is some population party split like 25% Rep, 40% Dem, and 35% Ind.
Then they do the polling and might gather from the calls something like 35% Rep, 35% Dem, 30% Ind.
Then they say "oopsie, better match up our sample to the population". And weight the Rep answers less and the Dem more to bring it inline.
So like usual, these polls really all depend on what numbers they are using for the party splits at the population level. And there were some really weird ones back in 2016.
Source: Statistician, you can make data say whatever you want. We call it "interrogating the data".
Edit: I would guess they changed their weights with the new year, which prompted the shift.
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Hillary Clinton has an 85% chance to win. Trust The Science.
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It was still like 90% an hour or 2 before they called it
People hate on 538 but they communicated it better than anyone
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haha holy shit
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loooool cope
Source: A better statistician than you. I bet you got your PhD in bongland or some shithole like that
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Never said I was a good one. I'm sure the data shows you are better than I.
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I did a snowball sample survey, everyone says I'm the best statistician in my high school
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How long did it take to give everyone a snowball?
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darn straight
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You sounded smarter as a fake nurse than a fake statistician tbh
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I never claimed to be a nurse, but do continue coping
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Coping about what?
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Idk u said continue to cope?
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Last 2 polls on 538 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general
"not sure" is the nooticers best stat
Also black people are the only demographic left who still sees Biden as doing a better job than not
Yougov https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_f5kOruS.pdf
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They don't really need to assume, pretty sure party registration is public or you can pay for the lists.
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Brilliant observation, Mr. Silver.
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My pleasure. That'll be $538 pl0x
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