https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1752775226612474145
🇺🇲 2024 GE: @QuinnipiacPoll (15)
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) January 31, 2024
Nov. 2023
(R) Trump: 48% (+2)
(D) Biden: 46%
.
Dec. 2023
(D) Biden: 47% (+1)
(R) Trump: 46%
.
Jan. 2024
(D) Biden: 50% (+6)
(R) Trump: 44% https://t.co/o5quaNGa46 pic.twitter.com/6jP0KUpUp8
!chuds in shambles
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unsurprisingly the tards at arr slash politics are now praising the accuracy of polls
https://old.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/1afr5la/trump_loses_to_biden_by_six_points_in_new_poll
when just a few months ago they claimed polls were stupid and actually a representative sample of 1500 people is not enough because nobody asked THEM what they thought
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Polls a month ago were polling r-slurs who didn't even think Trump was going to be the nominee despite it being obvious that no other rpub was getting it
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How dumb did you have to be to believe Trump wasn't going to sweep the nomination?
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I was just so blinded by Nikki Haley and imagining the contents of her laundry basket
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She texts me every day seething about Trump. I haven't had the heart to ask her to stop.
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The next primary will prove you wrong
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rPolitics people have to be the weirdest types. Unironic biden fans
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they aren't real people
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They probably are but theyre all in a nursing home
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Anytime a poll says something they don't like "erm, sample size?"
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actually we just crossed the threshold where polls go from being 100% inaccurate to 100% accurate. But still, get out there and vote!
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Like normal, this poll comes down to party lines.
Rep: 91% Trump, 7% Biden
Dem: 2% Trump, 96% Biden
Which means the poll depends on their weights for Dem/Rep.
See, they assume there is some population party split like 25% Rep, 40% Dem, and 35% Ind.
Then they do the polling and might gather from the calls something like 35% Rep, 35% Dem, 30% Ind.
Then they say "oopsie, better match up our sample to the population". And weight the Rep answers less and the Dem more to bring it inline.
So like usual, these polls really all depend on what numbers they are using for the party splits at the population level. And there were some really weird ones back in 2016.
Source: Statistician, you can make data say whatever you want. We call it "interrogating the data".
Edit: I would guess they changed their weights with the new year, which prompted the shift.
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Hillary Clinton has an 85% chance to win. Trust The Science.
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haha holy shit
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It was still like 90% an hour or 2 before they called it
People hate on 538 but they communicated it better than anyone
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loooool cope
Source: A better statistician than you. I bet you got your PhD in bongland or some shithole like that
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Never said I was a good one. I'm sure the data shows you are better than I.
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I did a snowball sample survey, everyone says I'm the best statistician in my high school
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How long did it take to give everyone a snowball?
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darn straight
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You sounded smarter as a fake nurse than a fake statistician tbh
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I never claimed to be a nurse, but do continue coping
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Coping about what?
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Idk u said continue to cope?
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Last 2 polls on 538 https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general
"not sure" is the nooticers best stat
Also black people are the only demographic left who still sees Biden as doing a better job than not
Yougov https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/econTabReport_f5kOruS.pdf
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They don't really need to assume, pretty sure party registration is public or you can pay for the lists.
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Brilliant observation, Mr. Silver.
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My pleasure. That'll be $538 pl0x
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Honestly they deserve to lose for electing this r-slur again and empowering the Q freaks.
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Who are you talking about?
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[Republicans] deserve to lose for electing this r-slur [Trump] again and empowering the Q freaks.
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Thank you. It genuinely wasn't clear.
(
)
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You're some weird Pokémon fan, you have no place calling anyone an r-slur.
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!neolibs !nonchuds we ridin
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Realclearpolitics has Trump winning +2.5. it aggregates polls by accuracies and lean
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I only trust analysis from Nate Silver because he makes wing cucks on both sides seethe no matter what he says.
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Wrong, Nate silver is the goat because he's hideous, there's a correlation between your ability to do math and how butt ugly.you are
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God I love Nate Silver
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If you ignore how wrong he was about 2016.
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Yes, you are one of the people seething, which I enjoy.
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Didn't he give Trump the highest chance of winning among the major aggregators?
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Yes the 538 final had Trump at 28.6%. To be fair most people are r-slurred when it comes to numbers and statistics though.
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Remember when all the 2016 polls had Clinton winning by a landslide?
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You know Clinton was up like 2% in the polls in 2016, which is the standard historical margin of error for polling, right?
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Ps do feel at all silly for being completely wrong about Ukraine-Russia? You have to stop believing the tv bro
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She did, just not the electoral college
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2016: Hillary is so far ahead in the polls that she doesn't think about Donald Trump
2024: Biden doesn't think about about Donald Trump because he has dementia and doesn't even remember he's president.
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Just get him a fortune teller and put his wife in charge. That's what propped up Reagan for that second term
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I thought the Koreans has a little more flair with the weird robed cult that the president got orders from
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Also who are you voting for /r/drama?
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!grillers
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!grillers
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I'm going to vote for Marsey. Specifically, this Marsey
I like the cut of her jib and I think she knows what's up
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Every year I write in George Washington
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that's a good idea!
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Probably will do my election year tradition
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Only two parties? Very dramaphobic.
!poll_voters
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I won't rest until another Kennedy dies in office
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Where is No Labels?
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Darn, I knew I forgot someone. Guess they're not on rDrama's 100% official ballot. I'll be sure to let the boys at Bohemian Grove know.
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Where is Kanye?
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He's said he's not running this year.
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Blue no matter who. There's too much at stake.
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vote blue no matter
who!
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I will decide by coinflip
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I wish I could vote for both!
I want both sides to just have fun!
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oh shit i recognize that pfp top tier game.
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You are surprisingly the first, if not the first one to mention it. I love armed and dangerous
top 5 on the og xbox list.
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Landshark guns are the best.
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That or the one that flips the whole world you get at level 1 lol. I loved setting up as many people as i could as a kid to fly in the air. Super kino game.
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US needs to bomb some more brown people or else Trump will lose
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Leftoids once again manage to make Biden seem competent
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Holy moley, hand me some ballots and a chocolate chocolate chip!
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god darn you're not wrong lmao
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Pretty much.
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elections don't matter until we have an anti-semite candidate polling over 40 percent
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Those South American elections with an ardent fascist at 50% support and an ardent communist at 50% support always seemed fun
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doesn't matter. i was told that polls mean nothing at all and aren't even right when trump was reported to be ahead.
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none of the polls don't matter
until october.
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so all the polls matter!?
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The women are swinging, holy heck it really is all taytay
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Not that i think trumps gonna win, or that polls mean anything really, but i remember every poll in 2016 had hillary in the lead
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Just in time for a nice summer of Complete and Total Economic Collapse
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Has to be the border response right?
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You ain't seen nothing yet. Just wait for the drop after Trump's first conviction.
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No refunds, chuds
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Snapshots:
ghostarchive.org
archive.org
archive.ph (click to archive)
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